Oshkosh Corp
OSKWithin bandExpectations · modestHeld by 6 superinvestors.
SEC 10-K · fundamentals
Business quality
As of 2025-12-31Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
- Revenue growth
- -2.9%
- Net margin
- 6.2%
- ROE
- 14.3%
- FCF margin
- 5.9%
Valuation · value band
In fair-value range
Zero-growth floor
$79
Central IV
$126
Optimistic top
$150
Oshkosh Corp (OSK): A conservative value band $79–$150 / sh (zero-growth floor to growth-capped optimistic top); central read about $126. Today’s price sits inside that band (price $127 as of 2026-10-16).
The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.
Revenue growth 6% (lower of historical trend and fundamental cap, capped by moat) · moat 10 yr · discount 10.8% · Zero-growth downside $79
Price as of 2026-10-16 · yahoo · DGS10 5.1% @ 2026-10-15.
Method & numbers
A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.
Owner-earnings DCF $83.89 – $149.51 · Greenwald zero-growth $117.85 · zero-growth base $117.85 · reproduction $43.37
Moat Franchise (moat) · terminal value 48% of present value · owner-earnings yield 7% vs 10Y 5.1%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$94.40 – $117.85 / sh
Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.
Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022
v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex (degraded) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 81% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back). Operating margin is below its multi-year average (cyclical/declining): normalized margin capped at the latest year — no peak-margin capitalization (audit #2).
Buffett owner-earnings value$79.35 – $96.98 / sh
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022
v1 simplifications: Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 81% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy; no leverage premium applied (net cash or debt within the no-charge range).
Reproduction value = tangible net assets $2.38B + capitalized R&D $336.38M（FY 2026, 2024, 2023, 2022） = $43.37 / sh. Reproduction value = tangible net assets (equity − goodwill − intangibles) + capitalized R&D (5y straight-line), ÷ diluted shares.
Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
Assumes a narrow moat · competitive-advantage period ≈ 10 years.
Growth value not assessable — No positive growth reinvestment in the matured window, so ROIIC cannot be computed.
Window TTM 2026-06-30, FY 2024, 2023, 2022 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 21% (Average effective tax rate over 4 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.
Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 6% · OE FY TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022 · Discount band: 9.60%–12.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, as of 2026-10-15). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.
Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
What the price is betting
Today's price pencils in about 5.7% a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 8.3% a year.
Below what it has already done.
Roughly, the price needs its historical revenue growth to run about 8 more years to hold up.
SEC 13F · holders
Superinvestors Holding This Security
6 holders · $474.4M combined · this quarter +0 opened / -1 exited
- Value$392.7MWeight (prev→now)6.1% → 4.5% ▼
- Value$63.8MWeight (prev→now)0.2% → 0.2% ▼
- Value$12.8MWeight (prev→now)11.7% → 6.7% ▼
- Value$2.8MWeight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.0% ▼
- Value$2.0MWeight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.0% ▼
- Value$241,731Weight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.0% ▲
SEC 13F · notes
Written summary
Written summary
Oshkosh Corp (OSK) is held by 6 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $474.4M in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Edgar Wachenheim, where it makes up 4.5% of the portfolio.
Other notable holders by value include Richard Pzena (0.2% of its book), Alex Roepers (6.7% of its book) and Jeremy Grantham (0.0% of its book).
In the quarter ended 2026-06-30, 0 of the tracked filers opened a new position in OSK, 1 added to existing ones, 4 trimmed, and 1 sold out entirely.
Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.
SEC 13F · co-ownership
Also held by these investors
Investors holding Oshkosh Corp (OSK) also commonly hold →
- Lear CorpLEA5 holders
- Jpmorgan Chase & CoJPM5 holders
- Alphabet Inc-Cl AGOOGL4 holders
- Capital One Financial CorpCOF4 holders
- Microsoft CorpMSFT4 holders
- Merck & Co. IncMRK4 holders
OSK's price is not below its conservative value band. See current strike-zone stocks
Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-14
Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.
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