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Pdd Holdings Inc

PDDStrike zoneExpectations · modest

Held by 4 superinvestors.

Price$86.74
Margin of safety−76%
Holders4
Total value$3.11B

SEC 10-K · fundamentals

Business quality

as of 2025-12-31
Revenue growth
+14.5%
Net margin
22.7%
ROE
23.7%
FCF margin
—
Revenue $9.12B → $61.75B · 6y
What makes a business high quality

Valuation · value band

Margin of safety

$357/ sh · growth-anchored intrinsic value
margin of safety
fair value
above fair value
$87
cheaperpricier

Zero-growth floor

$66

Central IV

$357

Optimistic top

$465

Pdd Holdings Inc (PDD): A conservative value band $66–$465 / sh (zero-growth floor to growth-capped optimistic top); central read about $357. Today’s price sits below that band (price $87 as of 2026-08-26).

The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.

Revenue growth 20% (lower of historical trend and fundamental cap, capped by moat) · moat 20 yr · discount 10.6% · Zero-growth downside $66

Price as of 2026-08-26 · yahoo · DGS10 4.7% @ 2026-08-26.

Method & numbers

Model cautions

  • Owner-earnings yield diverges sharply from the 10-year Treasury (over 300 bps).
  • Growth nearly matches the discount rate — the estimate is sensitive to assumptions.

A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.

Owner-earnings DCF $100.20 – $464.93 · Greenwald zero-growth $90.37 · zero-growth base $90.37 · reproduction $43.62

Moat Franchise (moat) · terminal value 34% of present value · owner-earnings yield 8% vs 10Y 4.7%.

Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$75.85 – $90.37 / sh

Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.

Years: 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex unavailable → degraded to the v1 simplification (maintenance capex = D&A, so the depreciation add-back nets to zero). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back).

Buffett owner-earnings value$65.96 – $80.61 / sh

Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).

Years: 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex or D&A unavailable → degraded to normalized net income (= average net income over the years shown). One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy; no leverage premium applied (net cash or debt within the no-charge range).

Reproduction value = tangible net assets $59.11B + capitalized R&D $5.56B（FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021） = $43.62 / sh. Reproduction value = tangible net assets (equity − goodwill − intangibles) + capitalized R&D (5y straight-line), ÷ diluted shares.

Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.

Assumes a wide moat · competitive-advantage period ≈ 20 years (earnings intact, ROIC stable over history).

Growth value not assessable — No positive growth reinvestment in the matured window, so ROIIC cannot be computed.

Window FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 17% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.

Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 20% · OE FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 9.16%–12.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, as of 2026-08-26). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.

What the price is betting

Today's price pencils in about 2.4% a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 49.5% a year.

Below what it has already done.

Roughly, the price needs its historical revenue growth to run about 1 more years to hold up.

How to read intrinsic value

SEC 13F · holders

Superinvestors Holding This Security

4 holders · $3.11B combined · this quarter +0 opened / -3 exited

This quarter3 added3 exited
Holders 7 → 4 · last 8q
  • Duan Yongping
    Value$1.91BWeight (prev→now)10.1% → 10.0% ▼
  • Li Lu
    Value$820.9MWeight (prev→now)14.7% → 22.2% ▲
  • Dodge & Cox
    Value$347.1MWeight (prev→now)0.3% → 0.2% ▼
  • Norbert Lou
    Value$31.7MWeight (prev→now)15.7% → 12.4% ▼
Exited this quarter (3)
Sarah KettererHoward MarksDavid Tepper

SEC 13F · notes

Written summary

Pdd Holdings Inc (PDD) is held by 4 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $3.11B in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Duan Yongping, where it makes up 10.0% of the portfolio.

Other notable holders by value include Li Lu (22.2% of its book), Dodge & Cox (0.2% of its book) and Norbert Lou (12.4% of its book).

Over the latest quarter, 0 of the tracked filers opened a new position in PDD, 3 added to existing ones, 0 trimmed, and 3 sold out entirely.

Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.

How to read a 13F

SEC 13F · co-ownership

Also held by these investors

Investors holding Pdd Holdings Inc (PDD) also commonly hold →

PDD's price sits below its conservative value band. See the full strike-zone list

Also on

Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-14

Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.

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