Pennymac Financial Services
PFSIBelow valueHeld by 2 superinvestors.
SEC 10-K · fundamentals
Business quality
as of 2025-12-31Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
- Revenue growth
- -25.2%
- Net margin
- 2491.9%
- ROE
- 11.6%
- FCF margin
- -8274.8%
Valuation · value band
Margin of safety
Zero-growth floor
$81
Central IV
$76
Optimistic top
$90
Pennymac Financial Services (PFSI): A conservative value band $81–$90 / sh (zero-growth floor to growth-capped optimistic top); central read about $76. Today’s price sits below that band (price $73 as of 2026-09-04).
The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.
- Capex doubled in two years, so maintenance is hard to pin down — read the band conservatively.
- Recent earnings are below the multi-year average, so the band uses the lower run-rate.
Revenue growth 0% (history declining, capped at zero) · moat 0 yr · discount 10.6% · Zero-growth downside $81
Price as of 2026-09-04 · yahoo · DGS10 4.8% @ 2026-09-03.
Method & numbers
High leverage — ranges are a degraded approximation (see method).
Operating income is not reported separately (e.g. banks, insurers, and some diversified issuers), so earnings power is shown via the owner-earnings lens only; the unlevered NOPAT lens does not apply.
Price is at or below the reproducible tangible asset base ($81 / sh) — a rarer, harder floor.
Model cautions
- Capex doubled within two years: maintenance is floored then capped at D&A (OE may look optimistic); Greenwald growth value is closed — growth credit stays in the owner-earnings DCF only.
- Owner-earnings yield diverges sharply from the 10-year Treasury (over 300 bps).
A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.
Owner-earnings DCF $67.23 – $87.04 · Greenwald zero-growth $89.65 · zero-growth base $89.65 · reproduction $81.44
Moat Commodity-like · terminal value 36% of present value · owner-earnings yield 11% vs 10Y 4.8%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)
Operating income is not reported separately (e.g. banks, insurers, and some diversified issuers), so earnings power is shown via the owner-earnings lens only; the unlevered NOPAT lens does not apply.
Normalized NOPAT from operating margin — not applicable when operating income is not reported separately. Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge (+ cash − total debt) — not applied (lens not assessable).
Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
Buffett owner-earnings value$73.35 – $89.65 / sh
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Net income is below its multi-year average (cyclical/declining): normalized owner earnings anchored to the latest year — no peak-earnings capitalization (audit #2). Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 2067% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. Capex doubled within two years (AI-hog rule): maintenance capex floored at the D&A sustaining proxy (the growth-capex spike is not treated as maintenance). One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy; no leverage premium applied. Financial issuer (bank/insurer): net debt / owner earnings does not describe a deposit-funded balance sheet, so no leverage premium is applied here; leverage is instead handled by the reliability gate.
Reproduction value = tangible net assets $4.34B = $81.44 / sh. Total book value (shareholders' equity ÷ diluted shares); intangibles not separated — goodwill/intangibles unavailable this period.
Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value (tangible net assets + capitalized R&D). EPV well above reproduction value signals a moat; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. Dual reproduction test unavailable (intangibles not separated). A directional reading, not a verdict.
Growth value gated to zero — capex doubled within two years (AI-hog); growth credit stays in the owner-earnings DCF only.
Window TTM 2026-06-30, FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 21% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.
Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 0% (history declining → capped at 0) · OE FY TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 9.27%–12.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, as of 2026-09-03). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.
High leverage (net debt / shareholders' equity above 1.0): for financial issuers the single 9–11% rate band is a low-leverage approximation that is not priced for leverage (financials are exempt from the leverage premium; see the reliability gate instead). The ranges are shown but should be read with that in mind.
Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
What the price is betting
Today's price pencils in about -0.7% a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 31.0% a year.
Below what it has already done.
Roughly, the price needs its historical revenue growth to run about 1 more years to hold up.
Even when the value band is low-confidence: use this to see what the price assumes — not as a cheapness confirmation.
SEC 13F · holders
Superinvestors Holding This Security
2 holders · $164.5M combined · this quarter +0 opened / -0 exited
- Value$163.9MWeight (prev→now)2.2% → 2.9% ▲
- Value$545,769Weight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.0% ▲
SEC 13F · notes
Written summary
Written summary
Pennymac Financial Services (PFSI) is held by 2 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $164.5M in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Donald Smith, where it makes up 2.9% of the portfolio.
Other notable holders by value include Jim Cullen (0.0% of its book).
Over the latest quarter, 0 of the tracked filers opened a new position in PFSI, 2 added to existing ones, 0 trimmed, and 0 sold out entirely.
Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.
SEC 13F · co-ownership
Also held by these investors
Investors holding Pennymac Financial Services (PFSI) also commonly hold →
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Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-13
Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.
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