Progressive Corp
PGRWithin bandExpectations · modestHeld by 10 superinvestors.
SEC 10-K · fundamentals
Business quality
as of 2025-12-31Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
- Revenue growth
- +16.3%
- Net margin
- 12.9%
- ROE
- 37.3%
- FCF margin
- 19.6%
Valuation · value band
In fair-value range
Zero-growth floor
$109
Central IV
$193
Optimistic top
$238
Progressive Corp (PGR): A conservative value band $109–$238 / sh (zero-growth floor to growth-capped optimistic top); central read about $193. Today’s price sits inside that band (price $223 as of 2026-08-26).
The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.
Revenue growth 7% (lower of historical trend and fundamental cap, capped by moat) · moat 10 yr · discount 10.6% · Zero-growth downside $109
Price as of 2026-08-26 · yahoo · DGS10 4.7% @ 2026-08-26.
Method & numbers
Operating income is not reported separately (e.g. banks, insurers, and some diversified issuers), so earnings power is shown via the owner-earnings lens only; the unlevered NOPAT lens does not apply.
Model cautions
- Growth nearly matches the discount rate — the estimate is sensitive to assumptions.
A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.
Owner-earnings DCF $119.32 – $237.58 · Greenwald zero-growth $133.28 · zero-growth base $133.28 · reproduction $58.77
Moat Franchise (moat) · terminal value 50% of present value · owner-earnings yield 5% vs 10Y 4.7%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)
Operating income is not reported separately (e.g. banks, insurers, and some diversified issuers), so earnings power is shown via the owner-earnings lens only; the unlevered NOPAT lens does not apply.
Normalized NOPAT from operating margin — not applicable when operating income is not reported separately. Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge (+ cash − total debt) — not applied (lens not assessable).
Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
Buffett owner-earnings value$109.04 – $133.28 / sh
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 138% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy; no leverage premium applied. Financial issuer (bank/insurer): net debt / owner earnings does not describe a deposit-funded balance sheet, so no leverage premium is applied here; leverage is instead handled by the reliability gate.
Reproduction value = tangible net assets $34.33B = $58.77 / sh. Total book value (shareholders' equity ÷ diluted shares); intangibles not separated — goodwill/intangibles unavailable this period.
Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value (tangible net assets + capitalized R&D). EPV well above reproduction value signals a moat; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. Dual reproduction test unavailable (intangibles not separated). A directional reading, not a verdict.
Assumes a narrow moat · competitive-advantage period ≈ 10 years.
Growth value not assessable — Operating income is not available across the window, so ROIIC / growth value cannot be computed.
Window TTM 2026-06-30, FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 21% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.
Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 7% · OE FY TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 9.16%–12.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, as of 2026-08-26). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.
Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
What the price is betting
Today's price pencils in about 9.7% a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 16.0% a year.
Below what it has already done.
Roughly, the price needs its historical revenue growth to run about 6 more years to hold up.
SEC 13F · holders
Superinvestors Holding This Security
10 holders · $381.9M combined · this quarter +1 opened / -1 exited
- Value$164.7MWeight (prev→now)1.3% → 1.3% ▲
- Value$118.5MWeight (prev→now)3.8% → 4.0% ▲
- Value$23.2MWeight (prev→now)3.4% → 4.8% ▲
- Value$19.8MWeight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.0% ▲
- Value$15.8MWeight (prev→now)0.9% → 1.1% ▲
- Value$15.0MWeight (prev→now)5.2% → 4.7% ▼
- Value$12.9MWeight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.1% ▲
- Value$8.7MWeight (prev→now)New · 4.0%
- Value$3.0MWeight (prev→now)0.2% → 0.2% ▲
- Value$390,807Weight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.0% ▼
SEC 13F · notes
Written summary
Written summary
Progressive Corp (PGR) is held by 10 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $381.9M in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Thomas Gayner, where it makes up 1.3% of the portfolio.
Other notable holders by value include François Rochon (4.0% of its book), David Rolfe (4.8% of its book) and Jeremy Grantham (0.0% of its book).
Over the latest quarter, 1 of the tracked filers opened a new position in PGR, 5 added to existing ones, 1 trimmed, and 1 sold out entirely.
Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.
SEC 13F · co-ownership
Also held by these investors
Investors holding Progressive Corp (PGR) also commonly hold →
- Alphabet Inc-Cl AGOOGL8 holders
- Apple IncAAPL7 holders
- Microsoft CorpMSFT6 holders
- Meta Platforms Inc-Class AMETA6 holders
- Visa Inc-Class A SharesV6 holders
- Berkshire Hathaway Inc-Cl ABRK.A6 holders
PGR's price is not below its conservative value band. See current strike-zone stocks
Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-14
Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.
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