Constellation Brands Inc-A
STZAbove valueExpectations · demandingHeld by 6 superinvestors.
SEC 10-K · fundamentals
Business quality
As of 2026-02-28Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-08-31 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
- Revenue growth
- -10.5%
- Net margin
- 18.5%
- ROE
- 20.9%
- FCF margin
- 19.6%
Valuation · value band
Above fair value
Zero-growth floor
$4
Central IV
$5
Optimistic top
$18
Constellation Brands Inc-A (STZ): A conservative value band $4–$18 / sh (zero-growth floor to growth-capped optimistic top); central read about $5. Today’s price sits above that band (price $131 as of 2026-10-16).
The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.
Revenue growth 2% (lower of historical trend and fundamental cap, capped by moat) · moat 0 yr · discount 14.8% · Zero-growth downside $4
Price as of 2026-10-16 · yahoo · DGS10 5.1% @ 2026-10-15.
Method & numbers
Model cautions
- Owner-earnings yield diverges sharply from the 10-year Treasury (over 300 bps).
A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.
Owner-earnings DCF $4.45 – $5.91 · Greenwald zero-growth $18.15 · zero-growth base $18.15 · reproduction $4.48
Moat Commodity-like · terminal value 30% of present value · owner-earnings yield 1% vs 10Y 5.1%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$4.27 – $18.15 / sh
Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.
Years: TTM 2026-08-31, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex (degraded) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 117% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back).
Buffett owner-earnings value$4.50 – $5.19 / sh
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 13.0–15.0% band (9–11% base + 4.0pp leverage premium). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
Years: TTM 2026-08-31, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 117% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% base band plus a 4.0pp leverage premium (cost of equity rises with leverage — MM Proposition II). Net debt is about 86.3 years of owner earnings, adding 4.0pp of cost-of-equity risk premium.
Reproduction value = tangible net assets $786.40M = $4.48 / sh. Tangible net assets = shareholders' equity − goodwill − intangibles, ÷ diluted shares (no R&D history to capitalize).
Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
Growth value gated to zero — no moat or ROIIC ≤ WACC, so no growth value is credited.
Window TTM 2026-08-31, FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 21% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.
Baseline 9%–11%, net debt ≈ 86.3 years of owner earnings → +4.0pp cost-of-equity premium → effective 13.0%–15.0%.
Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 2% · OE FY TTM 2026-08-31, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 13.60%–16.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, each +4.00pp for leverage premium, as of 2026-10-15). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.
Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-08-31 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
What the price is betting
Today's price pencils in about over 30.0% (outside the usual range) a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 2.3% a year.
The market wants it well ahead of its own track record.
SEC 13F · holders
Superinvestors Holding This Security
6 holders · $1.09B combined · this quarter +0 opened / -3 exited
- Value$556.1MWeight (prev→now)1.5% → 1.3% ▼
- Value$430.8MWeight (prev→now)0.6% → 0.6% ▼
- Value$83.4MWeight (prev→now)0.3% → 0.2% ▼
- Value$10.2MWeight (prev→now)0.8% → 0.8% ▼
- Value$2.9MWeight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.0% ▲
- Value$2.2MWeight (prev→now)2.0% → 1.6% ▼
SEC 13F · notes
Written summary
Written summary
Constellation Brands Inc-A (STZ) is held by 6 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $1.09B in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Jeremy Grantham, where it makes up 1.3% of the portfolio.
Other notable holders by value include Bill Nygren (0.6% of its book), Richard Pzena (0.2% of its book) and David Katz (0.8% of its book).
In the quarter ended 2026-06-30, 0 of the tracked filers opened a new position in STZ, 2 added to existing ones, 3 trimmed, and 3 sold out entirely.
Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. 1 investor has already filed for the quarter ended 2026-09-30. Their positions in the table reflect those newer filings, and the move counts on this page cover only 2026-06-30 filings. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.
SEC 13F · co-ownership
Also held by these investors
Investors holding Constellation Brands Inc-A (STZ) also commonly hold →
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- Capital One Financial CorpCOF5 holders
- Merck & Co. IncMRK5 holders
- Bank Of America CorpBAC5 holders
STZ's price is not below its conservative value band. See current strike-zone stocks
Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-14
Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.
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