Constellation Brands Inc-A
STZAbove valueExpectations · demandingHeld by 7 superinvestors.
SEC 10-K · fundamentals
Business quality
as of 2026-02-28Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-05-31 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
- Revenue growth
- -10.5%
- Net margin
- 18.5%
- ROE
- 20.9%
- FCF margin
- 19.6%
Valuation · value band
Above fair value
Zero-growth floor
$3
Central IV
$1
Optimistic top
$3
Constellation Brands Inc-A (STZ): A conservative value band $3 / sh (zero-growth floor to growth-capped optimistic top); central read about $1. Today’s price sits above that band (price $134 as of 2026-08-26).
The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.
Revenue growth 2% (lower of historical trend and fundamental cap, capped by moat) · moat 0 yr · discount 14.6% · Zero-growth downside $3
Price as of 2026-08-26 · yahoo · DGS10 4.7% @ 2026-08-26.
Method & numbers
Model cautions
- Owner-earnings yield diverges sharply from the 10-year Treasury (over 300 bps).
A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.
Owner-earnings DCF $0.80 – $1.09 · Greenwald zero-growth $2.68 · zero-growth base $2.68 · reproduction $2.68
Moat Commodity-like · terminal value 30% of present value · owner-earnings yield 0% vs 10Y 4.7%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$-1.31 – $11.61 / sh
Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.
Years: TTM 2026-05-31, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex (degraded) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 122% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back).
Buffett owner-earnings value$0.81 – $0.93 / sh
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 13.0–15.0% band (9–11% base + 4.0pp leverage premium). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
Years: TTM 2026-05-31, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 122% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% base band plus a 4.0pp leverage premium (cost of equity rises with leverage — MM Proposition II). Net debt is about 490.2 years of owner earnings, adding 4.0pp of cost-of-equity risk premium.
Reproduction value = tangible net assets $469.90M = $2.68 / sh. Tangible net assets = shareholders' equity − goodwill − intangibles, ÷ diluted shares (no R&D history to capitalize).
Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
Growth value gated to zero — no moat or ROIIC ≤ WACC, so no growth value is credited.
Window TTM 2026-05-31, FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 21% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.
Baseline 9%–11%, net debt ≈ 490.2 years of owner earnings → +4.0pp cost-of-equity premium → effective 13.0%–15.0%.
Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 2% · OE FY TTM 2026-05-31, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 13.16%–16.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, each +4.00pp for leverage premium, as of 2026-08-26). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.
Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-05-31 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
What the price is betting
Today's price pencils in about over 30.0% (outside the usual range) a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 2.3% a year.
The market wants it well ahead of its own track record.
SEC 13F · holders
Superinvestors Holding This Security
7 holders · $1.09B combined · this quarter +0 opened / -3 exited
- Value$556.1MWeight (prev→now)1.5% → 1.3% ▼
- Value$430.8MWeight (prev→now)0.6% → 0.6% ▼
- Value$83.4MWeight (prev→now)0.3% → 0.2% ▼
- Value$10.3MWeight (prev→now)0.6% → 0.8% ▲
- Value$4.6MWeight (prev→now)1.0% → 1.0% ▼
- Value$2.9MWeight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.0% ▲
- Value$2.2MWeight (prev→now)2.0% → 1.6% ▼
SEC 13F · notes
Written summary
Written summary
Constellation Brands Inc-A (STZ) is held by 7 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $1.09B in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Jeremy Grantham, where it makes up 1.3% of the portfolio.
Other notable holders by value include Bill Nygren (0.6% of its book), Richard Pzena (0.2% of its book) and David Katz (0.8% of its book).
Over the latest quarter, 0 of the tracked filers opened a new position in STZ, 3 added to existing ones, 3 trimmed, and 3 sold out entirely.
Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.
SEC 13F · co-ownership
Also held by these investors
Investors holding Constellation Brands Inc-A (STZ) also commonly hold →
- Microsoft CorpMSFT7 holders
- Cvs Health CorpCVS7 holders
- Alphabet Inc-Cl AGOOGL6 holders
- Wells Fargo & CoWFC6 holders
- Alphabet Inc-Cl CGOOG6 holders
- Adobe IncADBE6 holders
STZ's price is not below its conservative value band. See current strike-zone stocks
Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-14
Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.
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