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Valmont Industries

VMIAbove valueExpectations · demanding

Held by 3 superinvestors.

Price$525.88
Holders3
Total value$18.3M

SEC 10-K · fundamentals

Business quality

as of 2025-12-27
Revenue growth
+0.7%
Net margin
8.5%
ROE
21.5%
FCF margin
7.6%
Revenue $2.90B → $4.10B · 6y
What makes a business high quality

Valuation · value band

Above fair value

$156/ sh · growth-anchored intrinsic value
margin of safety
fair value
above fair value
$526
cheaperpricier

Zero-growth floor

$112

Central IV

$156

Optimistic top

$363

Valmont Industries (VMI): Two methods value the business — a conservative owner-earnings DCF and a growth-credited Greenwald estimate, $112–$363 / sh. Today’s price sits above both (price $526 as of 2026-07-20).

The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.

Revenue growth 2% (lower of historical trend and fundamental cap, capped by moat) · moat 20 yr · discount 10.5% · Zero-growth downside $112

Price as of 2026-07-20 · yahoo · DGS10 4.5% @ 2026-07-17.

Method & numbers

Model cautions

  • The two methods’ midpoints differ materially — growth assumptions warrant review (over 20%).

A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.

Owner-earnings DCF $119.93 – $187.01 · Greenwald $208.85 – $362.74 (neutral $292.21) · zero-growth base $151.88 · reproduction $54.15

Moat Franchise (moat) · terminal value 18% of present value · owner-earnings yield 3% vs 10Y 4.5%.

Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$111.83 – $143.46 / sh

Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.

Years: 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex (degraded) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 83% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back).

Buffett owner-earnings value$124.27 – $151.88 / sh

Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).

Years: 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

v1 simplifications: Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 83% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy; no leverage premium applied (net cash or debt within the no-charge range).

Reproduction value = tangible net assets $940.49M + capitalized R&D $139.00M（FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021） = $54.15 / sh. Reproduction value = tangible net assets (equity − goodwill − intangibles) + capitalized R&D (5y straight-line), ÷ diluted shares.

Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.

Assumes a wide moat · competitive-advantage period ≈ 20 years (earnings intact, ROIC stable over history).

Growth value: if the moat holds for 20 yr at ROIIC ≈ 322%, $56.97–$210.86 / sh (neutral $140.33). Conservative, not a forecast.

Window FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 21% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.

Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 2% · OE FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 9.05%–12.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, as of 2026-07-17). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp. Two-method midpoint gap 61%.

What the price is betting

Today's price pencils in about 17.4% a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 6.4% a year.

The market wants it well ahead of its own track record.

How to read intrinsic value

SEC 13F · holders

Superinvestors Holding This Security

3 holders · $18.3M combined · this quarter +0 opened / -0 exited

This quarter3 trimmed
Holders 3 → 3 · last 8q
  • Jeremy Grantham
    Value$15.0MWeight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.0% ▼
  • Ray Dalio
    Value$3.0MWeight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.0% ▼
  • Jim Cullen
    Value$256,924Weight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.0% ▼

SEC 13F · notes

Written summary

Valmont Industries (VMI) is held by 3 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $18.3M in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Jeremy Grantham, where it makes up 0.0% of the portfolio.

Other notable holders by value include Ray Dalio (0.0% of its book) and Jim Cullen (0.0% of its book).

Over the latest quarter, 0 of the tracked filers opened a new position in VMI, 0 added to existing ones, 3 trimmed, and 0 sold out entirely.

Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-03-31. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.

How to read a 13F

SEC 13F · co-ownership

Also held by these investors

Investors holding Valmont Industries (VMI) also commonly hold →

VMI's price is not below its conservative value band. See current strike-zone stocks

Also on

Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-03-31 · filed 2026-05-15

Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.

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