Exxon Mobil Corp
XOMAbove valueExpectations · demandingHeld by 13 superinvestors.
SEC 10-K · fundamentals
Business quality
As of 2025-12-31Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
- Revenue growth
- -5.0%
- Net margin
- 8.7%
- ROE
- 11.1%
- FCF margin
- 7.1%
Valuation · value band
Above fair value
Zero-growth floor
$63
Central IV
$90
Optimistic top
$106
Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM): A conservative value band $63–$106 / sh (zero-growth floor to growth-capped optimistic top); central read about $90. Today’s price sits above that band (price $179 as of 2026-10-16).
The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.
Revenue growth 5% (lower of historical trend and fundamental cap, capped by moat) · moat 0 yr · discount 10.8% · Zero-growth downside $63
Price as of 2026-10-16 · yahoo · DGS10 5.1% @ 2026-10-15.
Method & numbers
Operating income is not reported separately (e.g. banks, insurers, and some diversified issuers), so earnings power is shown via the owner-earnings lens only; the unlevered NOPAT lens does not apply.
A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.
Owner-earnings DCF $60.73 – $106.14 · Greenwald zero-growth $71.35 · zero-growth base $71.35 · reproduction $62.69
Moat Commodity-like · terminal value 48% of present value · owner-earnings yield 4% vs 10Y 5.1%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)
Operating income is not reported separately (e.g. banks, insurers, and some diversified issuers), so earnings power is shown via the owner-earnings lens only; the unlevered NOPAT lens does not apply.
Normalized NOPAT from operating margin — not applicable when operating income is not reported separately. Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge (+ cash − total debt) — not applied (lens not assessable).
Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
Buffett owner-earnings value$58.38 – $71.35 / sh
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Net income is below its multi-year average (cyclical/declining): normalized owner earnings anchored to the latest year — no peak-earnings capitalization (audit #2). Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 52% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy; no leverage premium applied (net cash or debt within the no-charge range).
Reproduction value = tangible net assets $259.38B + capitalized R&D $2.31B（FY 2026, 2024, 2023, 2022） = $62.69 / sh. Total book value (equity ÷ diluted shares) + capitalized R&D; intangibles not separated — goodwill/intangibles unavailable this period.
Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value (tangible net assets + capitalized R&D). EPV well above reproduction value signals a moat; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. Dual reproduction test unavailable (intangibles not separated). A directional reading, not a verdict.
Growth value gated to zero — no moat or ROIIC ≤ WACC, so no growth value is credited.
Window TTM 2026-06-30, FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 21% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.
Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 5% · OE FY TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 9.60%–12.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, as of 2026-10-15). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.
Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
What the price is betting
Today's price pencils in about 17.9% a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 10.9% a year.
The market wants it well ahead of its own track record.
Roughly, the price needs its historical revenue growth to run about 19 more years to hold up.
SEC 13F · holders
Superinvestors Holding This Security
13 holders · $426.3M combined · this quarter +3 opened / -1 exited
- Value$204.0MWeight (prev→now)2.6% → 2.0% ▼
- Value$80.6MWeight (prev→now)0.3% → 0.2% ▼
- Value$40.7MWeight (prev→now)0.1% → 0.1% ▼
- Value$29.6MWeight (prev→now)New · 0.1%
- Value$24.8MWeight (prev→now)0.4% → 0.3% ▼
- Value$17.3MWeight (prev→now)5.2% → 3.7% ▼
- Value$10.1MWeight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.0% ▼
- Value$7.8MWeight (prev→now)1.2% → 0.9% ▼
- Value$7.7MWeight (prev→now)0.1% → 0.1% ▼
- Value$2.4MWeight (prev→now)0.5% → 0.4% ▼
Show all 13 holders ▸Collapse ▾
- Value$645,865Weight (prev→now)0.3% → 0.2% ▼
- Value$573,072Weight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.0% ▲
- Value$224,221Weight (prev→now)0.1% → 0.1% ▼
SEC 13F · notes
Written summary
Written summary
Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM) is held by 13 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $426.3M in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Jim Cullen, where it makes up 2.0% of the portfolio.
Other notable holders by value include Richard Pzena (0.2% of its book), Jeremy Grantham (0.1% of its book) and Ray Dalio (0.1% of its book).
In the quarter ended 2026-06-30, 3 of the tracked filers opened a new position in XOM, 1 added to existing ones, 6 trimmed, and 1 sold out entirely.
Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. 1 investor has already filed for the quarter ended 2026-09-30. Their positions in the table reflect those newer filings, and the move counts on this page cover only 2026-06-30 filings. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.
SEC 13F · co-ownership
Also held by these investors
Investors holding Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM) also commonly hold →
- Microsoft CorpMSFT13 holders
- Apple IncAAPL12 holders
- Alphabet Inc-Cl AGOOGL11 holders
- Alphabet Inc-Cl CGOOG10 holders
- Jpmorgan Chase & CoJPM10 holders
- Walt Disney Co/TheDIS10 holders
XOM's price is not below its conservative value band. See current strike-zone stocks
Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-18
Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.
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