General Dynamics Corp
GD高于价值预期 · 苛刻5 位超级投资者持有。
SEC 10-K · 基本面
生意质量
截至 2025-12-31估值口径：截至 2026-04-05 的滚动十二个月（最新 10-K 叠加未审计 10-Q）。
- 营收增速
- +10.1%
- 净利率
- 8.0%
- ROE
- 16.4%
- FCF 利润率
- 7.5%
估值 · 价值带
高于合理价值
零增长底
$137
中枢 IV
$235
乐观上沿
$330
General Dynamics Corp（GD）：两种方法为该业务估值 — 一为保守的所有者盈利 DCF，一为计入增长的 Greenwald 估计，$137–$330 / 股。今日价格高于二者（价格 $377 截至 2026-08-25）。
中间是主读数；右侧上沿是同一套保守假设下的乐观档，不是绝对上限。
营收增 6%（历史增长与基本面上限的较小值，受护城河封顶） · 护城河 20 年 · 折现 10.6% · 零增长下行 $137
价格截至 2026-08-25 · yahoo · DGS10 4.7% @ 2026-08-24.
方法与数字
保守内在价值带（零增长底到增速封顶的 DCF）加一道有形资产地板 — 非投资建议、非买卖信号、亦非目标价。
所有者盈利 DCF $145.89 – $287.78 · Greenwald $213.88 – $329.94 (中性 $274.53) · 零增长基准 $177.67 · 重置 $13.84
护城河 特许经营（护城河） · 终值占现值 23% · 所有者盈利收益率 4% 对 10Y 4.7%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$142.47 – $177.67 / 股
Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.
年份：TTM 2026-04-05, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 简化：Maintenance capex (degraded) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 76% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back). Operating margin is below its multi-year average (cyclical/declining): normalized margin capped at the latest year — no peak-margin capitalization (audit #2).
Buffett owner-earnings value$137.03 – $167.49 / 股
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
年份：TTM 2026-04-05, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 简化：Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 76% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy; no leverage premium applied (net cash or debt within the no-charge range).
重置价值 = 有形净资产 $3.79B = $13.84 / 股. Tangible net assets = shareholders' equity − goodwill − intangibles, ÷ diluted shares (no R&D history to capitalize).
护城河读数：Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
假设宽护城河 · 竞争优势期约 20 年（盈利未衰退、ROIC 历史稳定）。
增长价值：若护城河在 20 年 内维持于 ROIIC ≈ 60%，则 $36.22–$152.27 / 股（中性 $96.86）。保守估计，非预测。
窗口 TTM 2026-04-05, FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · 贴现带 9%–11% · 正常化税率 17% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · 股数 diluted.
所有者盈利 DCF：增长 g₁ 6% · OE FY TTM 2026-04-05, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 9.20%–12.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, as of 2026-08-24). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp. 两法中值差 15%。
估值口径：截至 2026-04-05 的滚动十二个月（最新 10-K 叠加未审计 10-Q）。
价格在赌什么
现价把公司未来几年的 owner-earnings 年增定在 11.8%；公司过去营收年增 6.9%。
市场要它明显快过自己一贯的水平。
SEC 13F · 持有人
持有该证券的超级投资者
5 位持有 · 合计 $429.2M · 本季 +1 新建 / -0 清仓
- 市值$239.2M权重（上季→本季）2.4% → 2.4% ▼
- 市值$138.5M权重（上季→本季）1.1% → 1.1% ▼
- 市值$38.5M权重（上季→本季）0.1% → 0.1% ▼
- 市值$7.0M权重（上季→本季）1.5% → 1.5% ▲
- 市值$6.0M权重（上季→本季）新建 · 0.0%
SEC 13F · 说明
文字说明
文字说明
General Dynamics Corp（GD）被 Compounder 追踪的 5 位超级投资者持有，合计申报市值 $429.2M。仓位最大的是 Jim Cullen，占其组合 2.4%。
按市值，其他主要持有人包括 Thomas Gayner（占其组合 1.1%），Richard Pzena（占其组合 0.1%） 和 Robert Olstein（占其组合 1.5%）。
最近一个季度，追踪范围内有 1 位新建 GD 仓位，2 位加仓，0 位减仓，0 位清仓。
以上持有人数与市值来自最新的 SEC Form 13F 申报，截至 2026-06-30 季度。来源：SEC EDGAR。13F 仅涵盖美股多头持仓，且可能滞后实际组合最多 45 天，因此这是已披露的多头持有情况，并非完整全貌。
SEC 13F · 共持信号
他们还共同持有
持有 General Dynamics Corp（GD）的这些人还共同重仓 →
GD 现价不低于保守价值带。 看当前击球区股票
数据来源· SEC EDGAR 13F 截至 2026-06-30 · 2026-08-14 提交
仅供教育与信息参考，不构成投资建议。13F 持仓为机构自行申报，可能滞后最多 45 天。
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