Alphabet Inc-Cl A
GOOGL带内43 位超级投资者持有。
SEC 10-K · 基本面
生意质量
截至 2025-12-31估值口径：截至 2026-06-30 的滚动十二个月（最新 10-K 叠加未审计 10-Q）。
- 营收增速
- +15.1%
- 净利率
- 32.8%
- ROE
- 31.8%
- FCF 利润率
- 18.2%
估值 · 价值带
处于合理价值区间
零增长底
$57
中枢 IV
$332
乐观上沿
$425
Alphabet Inc-Cl A（GOOGL）：保守价值带 $57–$425 / 股（零增长底到增速封顶的乐观上沿），中枢约 $332。今日价格落在这条带内（价格 $356 截至 2026-07-31）。
中间是主读数；右侧上沿是同一套保守假设下的乐观档，不是绝对上限。
- 资本开支两年翻倍，维持性投入难分清，价值带按保守口径读。
营收增 15%（历史增长与基本面上限的较小值，受护城河封顶） · 护城河 20 年 · 折现 10.6% · 零增长下行 $57
价格截至 2026-07-31 · yahoo · DGS10 4.7% @ 2026-07-29.
方法与数字
模型警示
- 资本开支两年翻倍：维持性 CapEx 下限后按 D&A 封顶（OE 可能偏乐观）；Greenwald 增长价值已关闭 — 成长只留在所有者盈利 DCF。
- 增长率几乎等于贴现率 — 估计对假设高度敏感。
保守内在价值带（零增长底到增速封顶的 DCF）加一道有形资产地板 — 非投资建议、非买卖信号、亦非目标价。
所有者盈利 DCF $123.17 – $425.23 · Greenwald 零增长 $111.75 · 零增长基准 $111.75 · 重置 $56.72
护城河 特许经营（凭盈利增长） · 终值占现值 31% · 所有者盈利收益率 3% 对 10Y 4.7%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$54.24 – $67.09 / 股
Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.
年份：TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 简化：Maintenance capex (degraded) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 114% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. Capex doubled within two years (AI-hog rule): flagged; the spike is treated as growth, not maintenance — owner earnings carry extra uncertainty. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back).
Buffett owner-earnings value$91.43 – $111.75 / 股
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
年份：TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 简化：Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 114% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. Capex doubled within two years (AI-hog rule): flagged; the spike is treated as growth, not maintenance — owner earnings carry extra uncertainty. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy; no leverage premium applied (net cash or debt within the no-charge range).
重置价值 = 有形净资产 $573.55B + 资本化研发 $124.64B（FY 2026, 2024, 2023, 2022） = $56.72 / 股. Reproduction value = tangible net assets (equity − goodwill − intangibles) + capitalized R&D (5y straight-line), ÷ diluted shares.
护城河读数：Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
假设宽护城河 · 竞争优势期约 20 年（盈利未衰退、ROIC 历史稳定）。
增长价值被闸至零 — 资本开支两年翻倍（AI-hog），成长只留在所有者盈利 DCF，避免双重计入。
窗口 TTM 2026-06-30, FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · 贴现带 9%–11% · 正常化税率 16% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · 股数 diluted.
所有者盈利 DCF：增长 g₁ 15% · OE FY TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 9.17%–12.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, as of 2026-07-29). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.
估值口径：截至 2026-06-30 的滚动十二个月（最新 10-K 叠加未审计 10-Q）。
价格在赌什么
现价把公司未来几年的 owner-earnings 年增定在 16.1%；公司过去营收年增 15.2%。
和它自己一贯的水平差不多。
粗略地说，现价要它按历史营收增速再增长约 14 年，才刚好撑得起。
价值带信心不足时仍可对照：这里只说明市场在赌多快，不把它当成「确认便宜」。
SEC 13F · 持有人
持有该证券的超级投资者
43 位持有 · 合计 $34.02B · 本季 +3 新建 / -1 清仓
- 市值$15.60B权重（上季→本季）2.0% → 5.9% ▲
- 市值$3.06B权重（上季→本季）11.2% → 13.4% ▲
- 市值$3.06B权重（上季→本季）1.8% → 1.7% ▼
- 市值$2.41B权重（上季→本季）3.5% → 3.2% ▼
- 市值$1.98B权重（上季→本季）5.3% → 5.1% ▼
- 市值$889.9M权重（上季→本季）4.4% → 4.1% ▼
- 市值$850.1M权重（上季→本季）6.4% → 6.6% ▲
- 市值$731.4M权重（上季→本季）21.6% → 22.8% ▲
- 市值$706.5M权重（上季→本季）新建 · 1.6%
- 市值$689.0M权重（上季→本季）2.2% → 1.9% ▼
展开全部 43 位持有人 ▸收起 ▾
- 市值$608.9M权重（上季→本季）10.6% → 10.1% ▼
- 市值$574.5M权重（上季→本季）1.8% → 2.6% ▲
- 市值$536.5M权重（上季→本季）10.6% → 11.6% ▲
- 市值$484.1M权重（上季→本季）7.9% → 6.8% ▼
- 市值$459.9M权重（上季→本季）15.6% → 17.5% ▲
- 市值$275.6M权重（上季→本季）0.9% → 0.9% ▲
- 市值$164.5M权重（上季→本季）1.4% → 1.4% ▼
- 市值$153.6M权重（上季→本季）7.0% → 5.7% ▼
- 市值$128.6M权重（上季→本季）9.6% → 9.9% ▲
- 市值$100.2M权重（上季→本季）3.8% → 3.7% ▼
- 市值$73.5M权重（上季→本季）3.5% → 2.5% ▼
- 市值$61.1M权重（上季→本季）7.1% → 9.2% ▲
- 市值$57.0M权重（上季→本季）5.0% → 4.5% ▼
- 市值$53.9M权重（上季→本季）新建 · 0.4%
- 市值$50.3M权重（上季→本季）新建 · 2.4%
- 市值$49.2M权重（上季→本季）0.2% → 0.2% ▼
- 市值$47.4M权重（上季→本季）32.1% → 30.9% ▼
- 市值$44.8M权重（上季→本季）9.6% → 9.2% ▼
- 市值$28.8M权重（上季→本季）9.2% → 8.4% ▼
- 市值$21.6M权重（上季→本季）0.8% → 0.7% ▼
- 市值$13.8M权重（上季→本季）5.3% → 5.1% ▼
- 市值$12.5M权重（上季→本季）1.0% → 0.3% ▼
- 市值$9.4M权重（上季→本季）2.4% → 2.4% ▲
- 市值$9.3M权重（上季→本季）1.4% → 0.1% ▼
- 市值$8.1M权重（上季→本季）0.0% → 0.1% ▲
- 市值$5.8M权重（上季→本季）0.1% → 0.1% ▼
- 市值$3.3M权重（上季→本季）0.1% → 0.0% ▼
- 市值$1.9M权重（上季→本季）0.0% → 0.0% ▼
- 市值$1.4M权重（上季→本季）0.1% → 0.1% ▲
- 市值$718,900权重（上季→本季）2.0% → 0.5% ▼
- 市值$201,292权重（上季→本季）0.0% → 0.0% ▼
- 市值$61,431权重（上季→本季）0.0% → 0.0% ▲
- 市值$1,725权重（上季→本季）0.0% → 0.0% ▲
SEC 13F · 说明
文字说明
文字说明
Alphabet Inc-Cl A（GOOGL）被 Compounder 追踪的 43 位超级投资者持有，合计申报市值 $34.02B。仓位最大的是 Warren Buffett，占其组合 5.9%。
按市值，其他主要持有人包括 Chase Coleman（占其组合 13.4%），Dodge & Cox（占其组合 1.7%） 和 Bill Nygren（占其组合 3.2%）。
最近一个季度，追踪范围内有 3 位新建 GOOGL 仓位，7 位加仓，21 位减仓，1 位清仓。
以上持有人数与市值来自最新的 SEC Form 13F 申报，截至 2026-06-30 季度。来源：SEC EDGAR。13F 仅涵盖美股多头持仓，且可能滞后实际组合最多 45 天，因此这是已披露的多头持有情况，并非完整全貌。
SEC 13F · 共持信号
他们还共同持有
持有 Alphabet Inc-Cl A（GOOGL）的这些人还共同重仓 →
看哪些股票相对价值带便宜。 浏览全部可估值股票
数据来源· SEC EDGAR 13F 截至 2026-06-30 · 2026-07-29 提交
仅供教育与信息参考，不构成投资建议。13F 持仓为机构自行申报，可能滞后最多 45 天。
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