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Ipg Photonics Corp

IPGP高于价值

2 位超级投资者持有。

现价$97.90
持有人数2
合计市值$61.2M

SEC 10-K · 基本面

生意质量

截至 2025-12-31
营收增速
+2.7%
净利率
3.1%
ROE
1.5%
FCF 利润率
-0.3%
营收 $1.20B → $1.00B · 近 6 年
什么样的生意算优质

估值 · 价值带

高于合理价值

$9/ 股 · 含增长中枢内在价值
安全边际
合理价值
高于合理价值
$98
更便宜更贵

零增长底

$55

中枢 IV

$9

乐观上沿

$55

Ipg Photonics Corp(IPGP):保守价值带 $55 / 股(零增长底到增速封顶的乐观上沿),中枢约 $9。今日价格高于这条带(价格 $98 截至 2026-07-20)。

中间是主读数;右侧上沿是同一套保守假设下的乐观档,不是绝对上限。

  • 最新盈利低于多年均值,价值带按更低的运行率计。

营收增 0%(历史下滑,封顶为零) · 护城河 0 年 · 折现 10.5% · 零增长下行 $55

价格截至 2026-07-20 · yahoo · DGS10 4.5% @ 2026-07-17.

方法与数字

模型警示

  • 所有者盈利收益率与 10 年期美债大幅背离(超过 300 个基点)。

保守内在价值带(零增长底到增速封顶的 DCF)加一道有形资产地板 — 非投资建议、非买卖信号、亦非目标价。

所有者盈利 DCF $8.15 – $10.81 · Greenwald 零增长 $54.99 · 零增长基准 $54.99 · 重置 $54.99

护城河 低于资产基础 · 终值占现值 37% · 所有者盈利收益率 1% 对 10Y 4.5%.

Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$11.80 – $12.31 / 股

Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.

年份:2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

v1 简化:Maintenance capex (ok) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back). Operating margin is below its multi-year average (cyclical/declining): normalized margin capped at the latest year — no peak-margin capitalization (audit #2).

Buffett owner-earnings value$8.89 – $10.87 / 股

Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).

年份:2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

v1 简化:Net income is below its multi-year average (cyclical/declining): normalized owner earnings anchored to the latest year — no peak-earnings capitalization (audit #2). Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (ok); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy; no leverage premium applied (net cash or debt within the no-charge range).

重置价值 = 有形净资产 $2.01B + 资本化研发 $338.81M(FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021) = $54.99 / 股. Reproduction value = tangible net assets (equity − goodwill − intangibles) + capitalized R&D (5y straight-line), ÷ diluted shares.

护城河读数:Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.

增长价值被闸至零 — 无护城河或 ROIIC ≤ WACC,故不计入增长价值。

窗口 FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · 贴现带 9%11% · 正常化税率 21% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · 股数 diluted.

所有者盈利 DCF:增长 g₁ 0%(历史下滑 → 封顶为 0) · OE FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 9.05%–12.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, as of 2026-07-17). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.

内在价值怎么读

SEC 13F · 持有人

持有该证券的超级投资者

2 位持有 · 合计 $61.2M · 本季 +1 新建 / -0 清仓

本季动向1 家新进1 家减仓
持有人 1 → 2 · 近 8 季
  • 市值$60.6M权重(上季→本季)0.8% 1.2%
  • 市值$581,659权重(上季→本季)新建 · 0.0%

SEC 13F · 说明

文字说明

Ipg Photonics Corp(IPGP)被 Compounder 追踪的 2 位超级投资者持有,合计申报市值 $61.2M。仓位最大的是 Fred Martin,占其组合 1.2%。

按市值,其他主要持有人包括 Ray Dalio(占其组合 0.0%)

最近一个季度,追踪范围内有 1 位新建 IPGP 仓位,0 位加仓,1 位减仓,0 位清仓。

以上持有人数与市值来自最新的 SEC Form 13F 申报,截至 2026-03-31 季度。来源:SEC EDGAR。13F 仅涵盖美股多头持仓,且可能滞后实际组合最多 45 天,因此这是已披露的多头持有情况,并非完整全貌。

如何读懂 13F

SEC 13F · 共持信号

他们还共同持有

持有 Ipg Photonics Corp(IPGP)的这些人还共同重仓 →

看哪些股票相对价值带便宜。 浏览全部可估值股票

也可在

数据来源· SEC EDGAR 13F 截至 2026-03-31 · 2026-05-15 提交

仅供教育与信息参考,不构成投资建议。13F 持仓为机构自行申报,可能滞后最多 45 天。

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