跳到主内容
Compounder
← 个股

Ziprecruiter Inc-A

ZIP低于价值带

1 位超级投资者持有。

现价$4.35
安全边际−29%
持有人数1
合计市值$15.3M

SEC 10-K · 基本面

生意质量

截至 2025-12-31

估值口径:截至 2026-06-30 的滚动十二个月(最新 10-K 叠加未审计 10-Q)。

营收增速
-5.3%
净利率
-7.3%
ROE
42.7%
FCF 利润率
2.2%
营收 $418.1M → $449.0M · 近 6 年
什么样的生意算优质

估值 · 价值带

安全边际

$6/ 股 · 含增长中枢内在价值
安全边际
合理价值
高于合理价值
$4
更便宜更贵

零增长底

$4

中枢 IV

$6

乐观上沿

$7

Ziprecruiter Inc-A(ZIP):保守价值带 $4–$7 / 股(零增长底到增速封顶的乐观上沿),中枢约 $6。今日价格低于这条带(价格 $4 截至 2026-08-25)。

中间是主读数;右侧上沿是同一套保守假设下的乐观档,不是绝对上限。

营收增 5%(历史增长与基本面上限的较小值,受护城河封顶) · 护城河 0 年 · 折现 10.8% · 零增长下行 $4

价格截至 2026-08-25 · yahoo · DGS10 4.6% @ 2026-08-25.

方法与数字

模型警示

  • 所有者盈利收益率与 10 年期美债大幅背离(超过 300 个基点)。

保守内在价值带(零增长底到增速封顶的 DCF)加一道有形资产地板 — 非投资建议、非买卖信号、亦非目标价。

所有者盈利 DCF $4.05 – $7.48 · Greenwald 零增长 $4.73 · 零增长基准 $4.73 · 重置 $2.84

护城河 低于资产基础 · 终值占现值 48% · 所有者盈利收益率 10% 对 10Y 4.6%.

Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$-0.15 – $0.15 / 股

Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.

年份:TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

v1 简化:Maintenance capex (degraded) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 1102% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back). Operating margin is below its multi-year average (cyclical/declining): normalized margin capped at the latest year — no peak-margin capitalization (audit #2).

Buffett owner-earnings value$3.89 – $4.73 / 股

Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9.2–11.2% band (9–11% base + 0.2pp leverage premium). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).

年份:TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

v1 简化:Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 1102% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% base band plus a 0.2pp leverage premium (cost of equity rises with leverage — MM Proposition II). Net debt is about 3.4 years of owner earnings, adding 0.2pp of cost-of-equity risk premium.

重置价值 = 有形净资产 $-45.70M + 资本化研发 $274.82M(FY 2026, 2024, 2023, 2022) = $2.84 / 股. Reproduction value = intangible-inclusive net reproduction (tangible net assets + acquired-intangible reset proxy + capitalized R&D), ÷ diluted shares; tangible net assets alone are negative for this asset-light franchise.

护城河读数:Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value (tangible net assets + capitalized R&D). EPV well above reproduction value signals a moat; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.

增长价值被闸至零 — 无护城河或 ROIIC ≤ WACC,故不计入增长价值。

窗口 TTM 2026-06-30, FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · 贴现带 9%11% · 正常化税率 21% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · 股数 diluted.

基线 9%–11%,净债务约 3.4 年所有者盈利 → 加 0.2 个百分点风险溢价 → 实际 9.2%–11.2%。

所有者盈利 DCF:增长 g₁ 5% · OE FY TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 9.35%–12.21% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, each +0.21pp for leverage premium, as of 2026-08-25). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.

估值口径:截至 2026-06-30 的滚动十二个月(最新 10-K 叠加未审计 10-Q)。

内在价值怎么读

SEC 13F · 持有人

持有该证券的超级投资者

1 位持有 · 合计 $15.3M · 本季 +0 新建 / -0 清仓

本季动向1 家减仓
持有人 1 → 1 · 近 8 季
  • 市值$15.3M权重(上季→本季)0.2% 0.3%

SEC 13F · 说明

文字说明

Ziprecruiter Inc-A(ZIP)被 Compounder 追踪的 1 位超级投资者持有,合计申报市值 $15.3M。仓位最大的是 Fred Martin,占其组合 0.3%。

最近一个季度,追踪范围内有 0 位新建 ZIP 仓位,0 位加仓,1 位减仓,0 位清仓。

以上持有人数与市值来自最新的 SEC Form 13F 申报,截至 2026-06-30 季度。来源:SEC EDGAR。13F 仅涵盖美股多头持仓,且可能滞后实际组合最多 45 天,因此这是已披露的多头持有情况,并非完整全貌。

如何读懂 13F

SEC 13F · 共持信号

他们还共同持有

持有 Ziprecruiter Inc-A(ZIP)的这些人还共同重仓 →

ZIP 现价低于保守价值带。 按安全边际浏览全部低估股

也可在

数据来源· SEC EDGAR 13F 截至 2026-06-30 · 2026-08-14 提交

仅供教育与信息参考,不构成投资建议。13F 持仓为机构自行申报,可能滞后最多 45 天。

订阅更新

新一季 13F 异动与估值更新,发到你的邮箱。