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Aaon Inc

AAONAbove valueExpectations · fair

Held by 2 superinvestors.

Price$105.61
Holders2
Total value$49.0M

SEC 10-K · fundamentals

Business quality

as of 2025-12-31
Revenue growth
+20.1%
Net margin
7.5%
ROE
12.0%
FCF margin
—
Revenue $514.6M → $1.44B · 6y
What makes a business high quality

Valuation · value band

Above fair value

$27/ sh · growth-anchored intrinsic value
margin of safety
fair value
above fair value
$106
cheaperpricier

Zero-growth floor

$12

Central IV

$27

Optimistic top

$35

Aaon Inc (AAON): A conservative value band $12–$35 / sh (zero-growth floor to growth-capped optimistic top); central read about $27. Today’s price sits above that band (price $106 as of 2026-07-21).

The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.

Revenue growth 10% (lower of historical trend and fundamental cap, capped by moat) · moat 20 yr · discount 10.6% · Zero-growth downside $12

Price as of 2026-07-21 · yahoo · DGS10 4.6% @ 2026-07-21.

Method & numbers

Model cautions

  • Owner-earnings yield diverges sharply from the 10-year Treasury (over 300 bps).
  • Growth nearly matches the discount rate — the estimate is sensitive to assumptions.

A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.

Owner-earnings DCF $13.81 – $34.51 · Greenwald zero-growth $16.05 · zero-growth base $16.05 · reproduction $11.50

Moat Franchise (via earnings growth) · terminal value 27% of present value · owner-earnings yield 1% vs 10Y 4.6%.

Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$13.13 – $16.05 / sh

Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.

Years: 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex unavailable → degraded to the v1 simplification (maintenance capex = D&A, so the depreciation add-back nets to zero). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back). Operating margin is below its multi-year average (cyclical/declining): normalized margin capped at the latest year — no peak-margin capitalization (audit #2).

Buffett owner-earnings value$11.77 – $14.39 / sh

Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).

Years: 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

v1 simplifications: Net income is below its multi-year average (cyclical/declining): normalized owner earnings anchored to the latest year — no peak-earnings capitalization (audit #2). Maintenance capex or D&A unavailable → degraded to normalized net income (= average net income over the years shown). One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy; no leverage premium applied (net cash or debt within the no-charge range).

Reproduction value = tangible net assets $811.08M + capitalized R&D $144.30M（FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021） = $11.50 / sh. Reproduction value = tangible net assets (equity − goodwill − intangibles) + capitalized R&D (5y straight-line), ÷ diluted shares.

Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.

Assumes a wide moat · competitive-advantage period ≈ 20 years (earnings intact, ROIC stable over history).

Growth value gated to zero — franchise via earnings-growth bypass; growth credit stays in the owner-earnings DCF only.

Window FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 18% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.

Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 10% · OE FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 9.13%–12.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, as of 2026-07-21). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.

What the price is betting

Today's price pencils in about 26.0% a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 25.2% a year.

About its own track record.

Roughly, the price needs its historical revenue growth to run about 13 more years to hold up.

How to read intrinsic value

SEC 13F · holders

Superinvestors Holding This Security

2 holders · $49.0M combined · this quarter +1 opened / -0 exited

This quarter1 opened1 added
Holders 2 → 2 · last 8q

SEC 13F · notes

Written summary

Aaon Inc (AAON) is held by 2 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $49.0M in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Jeremy Grantham, where it makes up 0.1% of the portfolio.

Other notable holders by value include François Rochon (0.6% of its book).

Over the latest quarter, 1 of the tracked filers opened a new position in AAON, 1 added to existing ones, 0 trimmed, and 0 sold out entirely.

Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-03-31. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.

How to read a 13F

SEC 13F · co-ownership

Also held by these investors

Investors holding Aaon Inc (AAON) also commonly hold →

AAON's price is not below its conservative value band. See current strike-zone stocks

Also on

Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-03-31 · filed 2026-05-15

Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.

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