Aaon Inc
AAONWithin bandExpectations · fairHeld by 3 superinvestors.
SEC 10-K · fundamentals
Business quality
as of 2025-12-31Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
- Revenue growth
- +20.1%
- Net margin
- 7.5%
- ROE
- 12.0%
- FCF margin
- —
Valuation · value band
In fair-value range
Zero-growth floor
$16
Central IV
$28
Optimistic top
$82
Aaon Inc (AAON): Two methods value the business — a conservative owner-earnings DCF and a growth-credited Greenwald estimate, $16–$82 / sh. Today’s price sits inside both (price $79 as of 2026-09-04).
The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.
Revenue growth 7% (lower of historical trend and fundamental cap, capped by moat) · moat 10 yr · discount 10.6% · Zero-growth downside $16
Price as of 2026-09-04 · yahoo · DGS10 4.8% @ 2026-09-03.
Method & numbers
Model cautions
- The two methods’ midpoints differ materially — growth assumptions warrant review (over 20%).
- Growth nearly matches the discount rate — the estimate is sensitive to assumptions.
A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.
Owner-earnings DCF $17.67 – $34.56 · Greenwald $40.54 – $81.53 (neutral $62.18) · zero-growth base $23.22 · reproduction $12.40
Moat Franchise (moat) · terminal value 50% of present value · owner-earnings yield 2% vs 10Y 4.8%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$19.00 – $23.22 / sh
Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.
Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex unavailable → degraded to the v1 simplification (maintenance capex = D&A, so the depreciation add-back nets to zero). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back). Operating margin is below its multi-year average (cyclical/declining): normalized margin capped at the latest year — no peak-margin capitalization (audit #2).
Buffett owner-earnings value$16.15 – $19.74 / sh
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex or D&A unavailable → degraded to normalized net income (= average net income over the years shown). One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy; no leverage premium applied (net cash or debt within the no-charge range).
Reproduction value = tangible net assets $924.41M + capitalized R&D $113.42M（FY 2026, 2024, 2023, 2022） = $12.40 / sh. Reproduction value = tangible net assets (equity − goodwill − intangibles) + capitalized R&D (5y straight-line), ÷ diluted shares.
Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
Assumes a narrow moat · competitive-advantage period ≈ 10 years.
Growth value: if the moat holds for 10 yr at ROIIC ≈ 98%, $17.32–$58.31 / sh (neutral $38.95). Conservative, not a forecast.
Window TTM 2026-06-30, FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 18% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.
Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 7% · OE FY TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 9.27%–12.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, as of 2026-09-03). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp. Two-method midpoint gap 75%.
Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
What the price is betting
Today's price pencils in about 26.7% a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 25.2% a year.
About its own track record.
Roughly, the price needs its historical revenue growth to run about 9 more years to hold up.
SEC 13F · holders
Superinvestors Holding This Security
3 holders · $59.9M combined · this quarter +1 opened / -0 exited
- Value$32.8MWeight (prev→now)0.1% → 0.1% ▼
- Value$26.0MWeight (prev→now)0.6% → 0.9% ▲
- Value$1.2MWeight (prev→now)New · 0.0%
SEC 13F · notes
Written summary
Written summary
Aaon Inc (AAON) is held by 3 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $59.9M in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Jeremy Grantham, where it makes up 0.1% of the portfolio.
Other notable holders by value include François Rochon (0.9% of its book) and Ray Dalio (0.0% of its book).
Over the latest quarter, 1 of the tracked filers opened a new position in AAON, 1 added to existing ones, 1 trimmed, and 0 sold out entirely.
Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.
SEC 13F · co-ownership
Also held by these investors
Investors holding Aaon Inc (AAON) also commonly hold →
- Ss Spdr S&P 500 Etf Trust-UsSPY3 holders
- Microsoft CorpMSFT3 holders
- Alphabet Inc-Cl AGOOGL3 holders
- Meta Platforms Inc-Class AMETA3 holders
- Apple IncAAPL3 holders
- Visa Inc-Class A SharesV3 holders
AAON's price is not below its conservative value band. See current strike-zone stocks
Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-14
Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.
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