Aaon Inc
AAON高于价值预期 · 公允2 位超级投资者持有。
SEC 10-K · 基本面
生意质量
截至 2025-12-31- 营收增速
- +20.1%
- 净利率
- 7.5%
- ROE
- 12.0%
- FCF 利润率
- —
估值 · 价值带
高于合理价值
零增长底
$12
中枢 IV
$27
乐观上沿
$35
Aaon Inc(AAON):保守价值带 $12–$35 / 股(零增长底到增速封顶的乐观上沿),中枢约 $27。今日价格高于这条带(价格 $106 截至 2026-07-21)。
中间是主读数;右侧上沿是同一套保守假设下的乐观档,不是绝对上限。
营收增 10%(历史增长与基本面上限的较小值,受护城河封顶) · 护城河 20 年 · 折现 10.6% · 零增长下行 $12
价格截至 2026-07-21 · yahoo · DGS10 4.6% @ 2026-07-21.
方法与数字
模型警示
- 所有者盈利收益率与 10 年期美债大幅背离(超过 300 个基点)。
- 增长率几乎等于贴现率 — 估计对假设高度敏感。
保守内在价值带(零增长底到增速封顶的 DCF)加一道有形资产地板 — 非投资建议、非买卖信号、亦非目标价。
所有者盈利 DCF $13.81 – $34.51 · Greenwald 零增长 $16.05 · 零增长基准 $16.05 · 重置 $11.50
护城河 特许经营(凭盈利增长) · 终值占现值 27% · 所有者盈利收益率 1% 对 10Y 4.6%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$13.13 – $16.05 / 股
Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.
年份:2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 简化:Maintenance capex unavailable → degraded to the v1 simplification (maintenance capex = D&A, so the depreciation add-back nets to zero). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back). Operating margin is below its multi-year average (cyclical/declining): normalized margin capped at the latest year — no peak-margin capitalization (audit #2).
Buffett owner-earnings value$11.77 – $14.39 / 股
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
年份:2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 简化:Net income is below its multi-year average (cyclical/declining): normalized owner earnings anchored to the latest year — no peak-earnings capitalization (audit #2). Maintenance capex or D&A unavailable → degraded to normalized net income (= average net income over the years shown). One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy; no leverage premium applied (net cash or debt within the no-charge range).
重置价值 = 有形净资产 $811.08M + 资本化研发 $144.30M(FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021) = $11.50 / 股. Reproduction value = tangible net assets (equity − goodwill − intangibles) + capitalized R&D (5y straight-line), ÷ diluted shares.
护城河读数:Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
假设宽护城河 · 竞争优势期约 20 年(盈利未衰退、ROIC 历史稳定)。
增长价值被闸至零 — 护城河来自盈利增长旁路,成长只留在所有者盈利 DCF。
窗口 FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · 贴现带 9%–11% · 正常化税率 18% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · 股数 diluted.
所有者盈利 DCF:增长 g₁ 10% · OE FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 9.13%–12.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, as of 2026-07-21). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.
价格在赌什么
现价把公司未来几年的 owner-earnings 年增定在 26.0%;公司过去营收年增 25.2%。
和它自己一贯的水平差不多。
粗略地说,现价要它按历史营收增速再增长约 13 年,才刚好撑得起。
SEC 13F · 持有人
持有该证券的超级投资者
2 位持有 · 合计 $49.0M · 本季 +1 新建 / -0 清仓
- 市值$32.3M权重(上季→本季)0.1% → 0.1% ▲
- 市值$16.7M权重(上季→本季)新建 · 0.6%
SEC 13F · 说明
文字说明
文字说明
Aaon Inc(AAON)被 Compounder 追踪的 2 位超级投资者持有,合计申报市值 $49.0M。仓位最大的是 Jeremy Grantham,占其组合 0.1%。
按市值,其他主要持有人包括 François Rochon(占其组合 0.6%)。
最近一个季度,追踪范围内有 1 位新建 AAON 仓位,1 位加仓,0 位减仓,0 位清仓。
以上持有人数与市值来自最新的 SEC Form 13F 申报,截至 2026-03-31 季度。来源:SEC EDGAR。13F 仅涵盖美股多头持仓,且可能滞后实际组合最多 45 天,因此这是已披露的多头持有情况,并非完整全貌。
SEC 13F · 共持信号
他们还共同持有
持有 Aaon Inc(AAON)的这些人还共同重仓 →
AAON 现价不低于保守价值带。 看当前击球区股票
数据来源· SEC EDGAR 13F 截至 2026-03-31 · 2026-05-15 提交
仅供教育与信息参考,不构成投资建议。13F 持仓为机构自行申报,可能滞后最多 45 天。
订阅更新
新一季 13F 异动与估值更新,发到你的邮箱。