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Argan Inc

AGXAbove value

Held by 3 superinvestors.

Price$455.15
Holders3
Total value$310.6M

SEC 10-K · fundamentals

Business quality

as of 2026-01-31

Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-04-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.

Revenue growth
+8.1%
Net margin
14.6%
ROE
29.8%
FCF margin
43.5%
Revenue $392.2M → $944.6M · 6y
What makes a business high quality

Valuation · value band

Above fair value

$309/ sh · growth-anchored intrinsic value
margin of safety
fair value
above fair value
$455
cheaperpricier

Zero-growth floor

$60

Central IV

$309

Optimistic top

$403

Argan Inc (AGX): A conservative value band $60–$403 / sh (zero-growth floor to growth-capped optimistic top); central read about $309. Today’s price sits above that band (price $455 as of 2026-08-26).

The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.

  • Capex doubled in two years, so maintenance is hard to pin down — read the band conservatively.

Revenue growth 20% (lower of historical trend and fundamental cap, capped by moat) · moat 20 yr · discount 10.6% · Zero-growth downside $60

Price as of 2026-08-26 · yahoo · DGS10 4.7% @ 2026-08-26.

Method & numbers

Model cautions

  • Capex doubled within two years: maintenance is floored then capped at D&A (OE may look optimistic); Greenwald growth value is closed — growth credit stays in the owner-earnings DCF only.
  • Owner-earnings yield diverges sharply from the 10-year Treasury (over 300 bps).
  • Growth nearly matches the discount rate — the estimate is sensitive to assumptions.

A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.

Owner-earnings DCF $89.35 – $402.92 · Greenwald zero-growth $88.57 · zero-growth base $88.57 · reproduction $31.28

Moat Franchise (moat) · terminal value 34% of present value · owner-earnings yield 1% vs 10Y 4.7%.

Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$77.03 – $88.57 / sh

Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.

Years: TTM 2026-04-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex (ok) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Capex doubled within two years (AI-hog rule): flagged; the spike is treated as growth, not maintenance — owner earnings carry extra uncertainty. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back).

Buffett owner-earnings value$59.50 – $72.72 / sh

Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).

Years: TTM 2026-04-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

v1 simplifications: Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (ok); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Capex doubled within two years (AI-hog rule): flagged; the spike is treated as growth, not maintenance — owner earnings carry extra uncertainty. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy; no leverage premium applied (net cash or debt within the no-charge range).

Reproduction value = tangible net assets $444.10M = $31.28 / sh. Tangible net assets = shareholders' equity − goodwill − intangibles, ÷ diluted shares (no R&D history to capitalize).

Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.

Assumes a wide moat · competitive-advantage period ≈ 20 years (earnings intact, ROIC stable over history).

Growth value gated to zero — capex doubled within two years (AI-hog); growth credit stays in the owner-earnings DCF only.

Window TTM 2026-04-30, FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 21% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.

Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 20% · OE FY TTM 2026-04-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 9.16%–12.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, as of 2026-08-26). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.

Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-04-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.

What the price is betting

Today's price pencils in about 24.1% a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 19.5% a year.

About its own track record.

Roughly, the price needs its historical revenue growth to run about 17 more years to hold up.

Even when the value band is low-confidence: use this to see what the price assumes — not as a cheapness confirmation.

How to read intrinsic value

SEC 13F · holders

Superinvestors Holding This Security

3 holders · $310.6M combined · this quarter +0 opened / -1 exited

This quarter3 trimmed1 exited
Holders 1 → 3 · last 5q
Exited this quarter (1)
Lee Ainslie

SEC 13F · notes

Written summary

Argan Inc (AGX) is held by 3 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $310.6M in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Stephen Mandel, where it makes up 1.8% of the portfolio.

Other notable holders by value include Polen Capital (0.1% of its book) and Ray Dalio (0.0% of its book).

Over the latest quarter, 0 of the tracked filers opened a new position in AGX, 0 added to existing ones, 3 trimmed, and 1 sold out entirely.

Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.

How to read a 13F

SEC 13F · co-ownership

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Also on

Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-14

Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.

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