Belden Inc
BDCWithin bandExpectations · demandingHeld by 2 superinvestors.
SEC 10-K · fundamentals
Business quality
As of 2025-12-31Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-28 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
- Revenue growth
- +10.3%
- Net margin
- 8.7%
- ROE
- 18.8%
- FCF margin
- 8.1%
Valuation · value band
In fair-value range
Zero-growth floor
$47
Central IV
$66
Optimistic top
$190
Belden Inc (BDC): Two methods value the business — a conservative owner-earnings DCF and a growth-credited Greenwald estimate, $47–$190 / sh. Today’s price sits inside both (price $103 as of 2026-10-22).
The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.
Revenue growth 3% (lower of historical trend and fundamental cap, capped by moat) · moat 10 yr · discount 11.3% · Zero-growth downside $47
Price as of 2026-10-22 · yahoo · DGS10 5.1% @ 2026-10-21.
Method & numbers
Model cautions
- The two methods’ midpoints differ materially — growth assumptions warrant review (over 20%).
A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.
Owner-earnings DCF $48.10 – $76.82 · Greenwald $109.23 – $189.58 (neutral $147.93) · zero-growth base $62.58 · reproduction $23.98
Moat Franchise (moat) · terminal value 44% of present value · owner-earnings yield 5% vs 10Y 5.1%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$47.12 – $62.58 / sh
Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.
Years: TTM 2026-06-28, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex (degraded) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 83% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back).
Buffett owner-earnings value$48.28 – $58.43 / sh
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9.5–11.5% band (9–11% base + 0.5pp leverage premium). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
Years: TTM 2026-06-28, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 83% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% base band plus a 0.5pp leverage premium (cost of equity rises with leverage — MM Proposition II). Net debt is about 4.0 years of owner earnings, adding 0.5pp of cost-of-equity risk premium.
Reproduction value = tangible net assets $-26.39M + capitalized R&D $263.06M（FY 2026, 2024, 2023, 2022） = $23.98 / sh. Reproduction value = intangible-inclusive net reproduction (tangible net assets + acquired-intangible reset proxy + capitalized R&D), ÷ diluted shares; tangible net assets alone are negative for this asset-light franchise.
Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value (tangible net assets + capitalized R&D). EPV well above reproduction value signals a moat; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
Assumes a narrow moat · competitive-advantage period ≈ 10 years.
Growth value: if the moat holds for 10 yr at ROIIC ≈ 119%, $46.64–$127.00 / sh (neutral $85.35). Conservative, not a forecast.
Window TTM 2026-06-28, FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 17% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.
Baseline 9%–11%, net debt ≈ 4.0 years of owner earnings → +0.5pp cost-of-equity premium → effective 9.5%–11.5%.
Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 3% · OE FY TTM 2026-06-28, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 10.15%–12.52% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, each +0.52pp for leverage premium, as of 2026-10-21). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp. Two-method midpoint gap 76%.
Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-28 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
What the price is betting
Today's price pencils in about 11.6% a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 5.6% a year.
The market wants it well ahead of its own track record.
SEC 13F · holders
Superinvestors Holding This Security
2 holders · $1.5M combined · this quarter +1 opened / -0 exited
- Value$1.1MWeight (prev→now)New · 0.0%
- Value$407,814Weight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.0% ▼
SEC 13F · notes
Written summary
Written summary
Belden Inc (BDC) is held by 2 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $1.5M in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Ray Dalio, where it makes up 0.0% of the portfolio.
Other notable holders by value include Jim Cullen (0.0% of its book).
In the quarter ended 2026-06-30, 1 of the tracked filers opened a new position in BDC, 0 added to existing ones, 1 trimmed, and 0 sold out entirely.
Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.
SEC 13F · co-ownership
Also held by these investors
Investors holding Belden Inc (BDC) also commonly hold →
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- Ishares Msci South Korea EtfEWY2 holders
BDC's price is not below its conservative value band. See current strike-zone stocks
Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-14· Yahoo Finance as of 2026-10-22· SEC 10-K + 10-Q (XBRL) as of 2026-06-28 · filed 2026-07-30·FRED 10-year Treasury (DGS10) as of 2026-10-21
Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.
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