Bwx Technologies Inc
BWXTAbove valueExpectations · demandingHeld by 2 superinvestors.
SEC 10-K · fundamentals
Business quality
As of 2025-12-31Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
- Revenue growth
- +18.3%
- Net margin
- 10.3%
- ROE
- 26.7%
- FCF margin
- 9.2%
Valuation · value band
Above fair value
Zero-growth floor
$16
Central IV
$29
Optimistic top
$39
Bwx Technologies Inc (BWXT): Two methods value the business — a conservative owner-earnings DCF and a growth-credited Greenwald estimate, $16–$39 / sh. Today’s price sits above both (price $127 as of 2026-10-22).
The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.
Revenue growth 3% (lower of historical trend and fundamental cap, capped by moat) · moat 20 yr · discount 12.1% · Zero-growth downside $16
Price as of 2026-10-22 · yahoo · DGS10 5.1% @ 2026-10-21.
Method & numbers
A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.
Owner-earnings DCF $22.32 – $33.14 · Greenwald $26.75 – $39.04 (neutral $30.60) · zero-growth base $26.75 · reproduction $6.01
Moat Franchise (moat) · terminal value 16% of present value · owner-earnings yield 2% vs 10Y 5.1%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$15.86 – $22.79 / sh
Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.
Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex (ok) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back). Operating margin is below its multi-year average (cyclical/declining): normalized margin capped at the latest year — no peak-margin capitalization (audit #2).
Buffett owner-earnings value$22.40 – $26.75 / sh
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 10.3–12.3% band (9–11% base + 1.3pp leverage premium). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (ok); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% base band plus a 1.3pp leverage premium (cost of equity rises with leverage — MM Proposition II). Net debt is about 5.6 years of owner earnings, adding 1.3pp of cost-of-equity risk premium.
Reproduction value = tangible net assets $527.75M + capitalized R&D $25.00M（FY 2026, 2024, 2023, 2022） = $6.01 / sh. Reproduction value = tangible net assets (equity − goodwill − intangibles) + capitalized R&D (5y straight-line), ÷ diluted shares.
Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
Assumes a wide moat · competitive-advantage period ≈ 20 years (earnings intact, ROIC stable over history).
Growth value: if the moat holds for 20 yr at ROIIC ≈ 12%, $0.00–$12.29 / sh (neutral $3.84). Conservative, not a forecast.
Window TTM 2026-06-30, FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 21% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.
Baseline 9%–11%, net debt ≈ 5.6 years of owner earnings → +1.3pp cost-of-equity premium → effective 10.3%–12.3%.
Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 3% · OE FY TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 10.92%–13.29% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, each +1.29pp for leverage premium, as of 2026-10-21). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp. Two-method midpoint gap 5%.
Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
What the price is betting
Today's price pencils in about 22.3% a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 8.6% a year.
The market wants it well ahead of its own track record.
SEC 13F · holders
Superinvestors Holding This Security
2 holders · $10.4M combined · this quarter +0 opened / -0 exited
- Value$7.2MWeight (prev→now)0.1% → 0.1% ▲
- Value$3.2MWeight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.0% ▼
SEC 13F · notes
Written summary
Written summary
Bwx Technologies Inc (BWXT) is held by 2 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $10.4M in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Polen Capital, where it makes up 0.1% of the portfolio.
Other notable holders by value include Ray Dalio (0.0% of its book).
In the quarter ended 2026-06-30, 0 of the tracked filers opened a new position in BWXT, 0 added to existing ones, 2 trimmed, and 0 sold out entirely.
Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.
SEC 13F · co-ownership
Also held by these investors
Investors holding Bwx Technologies Inc (BWXT) also commonly hold →
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BWXT's price is not below its conservative value band. See current strike-zone stocks
Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-14· Yahoo Finance as of 2026-10-22· SEC 10-K + 10-Q (XBRL) as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-03·FRED 10-year Treasury (DGS10) as of 2026-10-21
Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.
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