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Eli Lilly & Co

LLYAbove valueExpectations · demanding

Held by 8 superinvestors.

Price$1244.40
Holders8
Total value$1.86B

SEC 10-K · fundamentals

Business quality

as of 2025-12-31

Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.

Revenue growth
+44.7%
Net margin
31.7%
ROE
77.8%
FCF margin
—
Revenue $24.54B → $65.18B · 6y
What makes a business high quality

Valuation · value band

Above fair value

$273/ sh · growth-anchored intrinsic value
margin of safety
fair value
above fair value
$1,244
cheaperpricier

Zero-growth floor

$155

Central IV

$273

Optimistic top

$337

Eli Lilly & Co (LLY): A conservative value band $155–$337 / sh (zero-growth floor to growth-capped optimistic top); central read about $273. Today’s price sits above that band (price $1,244 as of 2026-08-20).

The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.

Revenue growth 7% (lower of historical trend and fundamental cap, capped by moat) · moat 10 yr · discount 10.6% · Zero-growth downside $155

Price as of 2026-08-20 · yahoo · DGS10 4.7% @ 2026-08-19.

Method & numbers

Operating income is not reported separately (e.g. banks, insurers, and some diversified issuers), so earnings power is shown via the owner-earnings lens only; the unlevered NOPAT lens does not apply.

Model cautions

  • Owner-earnings yield diverges sharply from the 10-year Treasury (over 300 bps).
  • Growth nearly matches the discount rate — the estimate is sensitive to assumptions.

A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.

Owner-earnings DCF $169.32 – $337.44 · Greenwald zero-growth $189.08 · zero-growth base $189.08 · reproduction $9.35

Moat Franchise (moat) · terminal value 50% of present value · owner-earnings yield 1% vs 10Y 4.7%.

Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)

Operating income is not reported separately (e.g. banks, insurers, and some diversified issuers), so earnings power is shown via the owner-earnings lens only; the unlevered NOPAT lens does not apply.

Normalized NOPAT from operating margin — not applicable when operating income is not reported separately. Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge (+ cash − total debt) — not applied (lens not assessable).

Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

Buffett owner-earnings value$154.73 – $189.08 / sh

Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9.0–11.0% band (9–11% base + 0.0pp leverage premium). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).

Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex or D&A unavailable → degraded to normalized net income (= average net income over the years shown). One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% base band plus a 0.0pp leverage premium (cost of equity rises with leverage — MM Proposition II). Net debt is about 3.0 years of owner earnings, adding 0.0pp of cost-of-equity risk premium.

Reproduction value = tangible net assets $6.92B + capitalized R&D $1.44B（FY 2022） = $9.35 / sh. Reproduction value = tangible net assets (equity − goodwill − intangibles) + capitalized R&D (5y straight-line), ÷ diluted shares.

Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.

Assumes a narrow moat · competitive-advantage period ≈ 10 years.

Growth value not assessable — Operating income is not available across the window, so ROIIC / growth value cannot be computed.

Window TTM 2026-06-30, FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 15% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.

Baseline 9%–11%, net debt ≈ 3.0 years of owner earnings → +0.0pp cost-of-equity premium → effective 9.0%–11.0%.

Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 7% · OE FY TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 9.16%–12.01% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, each +0.01pp for leverage premium, as of 2026-08-19). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.

Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.

What the price is betting

Today's price pencils in about over 30.0% (outside the usual range) a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 20.3% a year.

The market wants it well ahead of its own track record.

Roughly, the price needs its historical revenue growth to run about 17 more years to hold up.

How to read intrinsic value

SEC 13F · holders

Superinvestors Holding This Security

8 holders · $1.86B combined · this quarter +1 opened / -0 exited

This quarter1 opened1 added4 trimmed
Holders 7 → 8 · last 8q

SEC 13F · notes

Written summary

Eli Lilly & Co (LLY) is held by 8 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $1.86B in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Jeremy Grantham, where it makes up 2.0% of the portfolio.

Other notable holders by value include Polen Capital (6.9% of its book), Ray Dalio (0.4% of its book) and Dodge & Cox (0.0% of its book).

Over the latest quarter, 1 of the tracked filers opened a new position in LLY, 1 added to existing ones, 4 trimmed, and 0 sold out entirely.

Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.

How to read a 13F

SEC 13F · co-ownership

Also held by these investors

Investors holding Eli Lilly & Co (LLY) also commonly hold →

LLY's price is not below its conservative value band. See current strike-zone stocks

Also on

Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-14

Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.

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