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Costco Wholesale Corp

COSTAbove valueExpectations · demanding

Held by 8 superinvestors.

Price$989.11
Holders8
Total value$276.2M

SEC 10-K · fundamentals

Business quality

As of 2026-08-30
Revenue growth
+10.1%
Net margin
3.0%
ROE
25.8%
FCF margin
3.1%
Revenue $195.93B → $303.15B · 6y
What makes a business high quality

Valuation · value band

Above fair value

$321/ sh · growth-anchored intrinsic value
margin of safety
fair value
above fair value
$989
cheaperpricier

Zero-growth floor

$159

Central IV

$321

Optimistic top

$503

Costco Wholesale Corp (COST): Two methods value the business — a conservative owner-earnings DCF and a growth-credited Greenwald estimate, $159–$503 / sh. Today’s price sits above both (price $989 as of 2026-10-16).

The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.

Revenue growth 8% (lower of historical trend and fundamental cap, capped by moat) · moat 20 yr · discount 10.8% · Zero-growth downside $159

Price as of 2026-10-16 · yahoo · DGS10 5.1% @ 2026-10-15.

Method & numbers

Buybacks over the years shown roughly only offset stock-based-compensation dilution — read them as maintaining the share count, not a net return of capital.

Model cautions

  • Owner-earnings yield diverges sharply from the 10-year Treasury (over 300 bps).
  • The two methods’ midpoints differ materially — growth assumptions warrant review (over 20%).
  • Growth nearly matches the discount rate — the estimate is sensitive to assumptions.

A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.

Owner-earnings DCF $179.74 – $382.72 · Greenwald $301.73 – $503.41 (neutral $408.87) · zero-growth base $233.46 · reproduction $78.32

Moat Franchise (moat) · terminal value 24% of present value · owner-earnings yield 2% vs 10Y 5.1%.

Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$196.76 – $233.46 / sh

Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.

Years: 2026, 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022

v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex (ok) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back).

Buffett owner-earnings value$158.71 – $193.98 / sh

Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).

Years: 2026, 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022

v1 simplifications: Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (ok); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy; no leverage premium applied (net cash or debt within the no-charge range).

Reproduction value = tangible net assets $34.81B = $78.32 / sh. Tangible net assets = shareholders' equity − goodwill − intangibles, ÷ diluted shares (no R&D history to capitalize).

Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.

Assumes a wide moat · competitive-advantage period ≈ 20 years (earnings intact, ROIC stable over history).

Growth value: if the moat holds for 20 yr at ROIIC ≈ 94%, $68.27–$269.95 / sh (neutral $175.41). Conservative, not a forecast.

Window FY 2026, 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 21% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.

Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 8% · OE FY 2026, 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022 · Discount band: 9.60%–12.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, as of 2026-10-15). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp. Two-method midpoint gap 24%.

What the price is betting

Today's price pencils in about 22.2% a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 8.4% a year.

The market wants it well ahead of its own track record.

How to read intrinsic value

SEC 13F · holders

Superinvestors Holding This Security

8 holders · $276.2M combined · this quarter +0 opened / -0 exited

This quarter1 added5 trimmed
Holders 8 → 8 · last 8 quarters

SEC 13F · notes

Written summary

Costco Wholesale Corp (COST) is held by 8 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $276.2M in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Shad Rowe, where it makes up 15.5% of the portfolio.

Other notable holders by value include Thomas Gayner (0.3% of its book), Ray Dalio (0.1% of its book) and Thomas Russo (0.0% of its book).

In the quarter ended 2026-06-30, 0 of the tracked filers opened a new position in COST, 1 added to existing ones, 5 trimmed, and 0 sold out entirely.

Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. 1 investor has already filed for the quarter ended 2026-09-30. Their positions in the table reflect those newer filings, and the move counts on this page cover only 2026-06-30 filings. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.

How to read a 13F

SEC 13F · co-ownership

Also held by these investors

Investors holding Costco Wholesale Corp (COST) also commonly hold →

COST's price is not below its conservative value band. See current strike-zone stocks

Also on

Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-14

Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.

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