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Costco Wholesale Corp

COSTAbove valueExpectations · demanding

Held by 8 superinvestors.

Price$956.12
Holders8
Total value$276.2M

SEC 10-K · fundamentals

Business quality

as of 2025-08-31

Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-05-10 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.

Revenue growth
+8.2%
Net margin
2.9%
ROE
27.8%
FCF margin
2.8%
Revenue $166.76B → $275.24B · 6y
What makes a business high quality

Valuation · value band

Above fair value

$389/ sh · growth-anchored intrinsic value
margin of safety
fair value
above fair value
$956
cheaperpricier

Zero-growth floor

$163

Central IV

$389

Optimistic top

$523

Costco Wholesale Corp (COST): Two methods value the business — a conservative owner-earnings DCF and a growth-credited Greenwald estimate, $163–$523 / sh. Today’s price sits above both (price $956 as of 2026-08-26).

The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.

Revenue growth 10% (lower of historical trend and fundamental cap, capped by moat) · moat 20 yr · discount 10.6% · Zero-growth downside $163

Price as of 2026-08-26 · yahoo · DGS10 4.7% @ 2026-08-26.

Method & numbers

Buybacks over the years shown roughly only offset stock-based-compensation dilution — read them as maintaining the share count, not a net return of capital.

Model cautions

  • Growth nearly matches the discount rate — the estimate is sensitive to assumptions.

A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.

Owner-earnings DCF $192.48 – $487.16 · Greenwald $300.10 – $523.32 (neutral $415.28) · zero-growth base $234.89 · reproduction $75.40

Moat Franchise (moat) · terminal value 27% of present value · owner-earnings yield 2% vs 10Y 4.7%.

Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$197.62 – $234.89 / sh

Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.

Years: TTM 2026-05-10, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex (degraded) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 93% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back).

Buffett owner-earnings value$162.81 – $198.99 / sh

Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).

Years: TTM 2026-05-10, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

v1 simplifications: Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 93% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy; no leverage premium applied (net cash or debt within the no-charge range).

Reproduction value = tangible net assets $33.51B = $75.40 / sh. Total book value (shareholders' equity ÷ diluted shares); intangibles not separated — goodwill/intangibles unavailable this period.

Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value (tangible net assets + capitalized R&D). EPV well above reproduction value signals a moat; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. Dual reproduction test unavailable (intangibles not separated). A directional reading, not a verdict.

Assumes a wide moat · competitive-advantage period ≈ 20 years (earnings intact, ROIC stable over history).

Growth value: if the moat holds for 20 yr at ROIIC ≈ 48%, $65.21–$288.43 / sh (neutral $180.38). Conservative, not a forecast.

Window TTM 2026-05-10, FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 21% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.

Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 10% · OE FY TTM 2026-05-10, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 9.16%–12.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, as of 2026-08-26). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp. Two-method midpoint gap 7%.

Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-05-10 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.

What the price is betting

Today's price pencils in about 21.0% a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 10.1% a year.

The market wants it well ahead of its own track record.

How to read intrinsic value

SEC 13F · holders

Superinvestors Holding This Security

8 holders · $276.2M combined · this quarter +0 opened / -0 exited

This quarter1 added6 trimmed
Holders 9 → 8 · last 8q
  • Shad Rowe
    Value$207.4MWeight (prev→now)17.1% → 15.5% ▼
  • Thomas Gayner
    Value$36.6MWeight (prev→now)0.3% → 0.3% ▼
  • Ray Dalio
    Value$24.8MWeight (prev→now)0.1% → 0.1% ▼
  • Thomas Russo
    Value$3.2MWeight (prev→now)0.1% → 0.0% ▼
  • Chris Bloomstran
    Value$3.1MWeight (prev→now)0.4% → 0.4% ▼
  • David Katz
    Value$515,137Weight (prev→now)0.1% → 0.0% ▼
  • Bill Nygren
    Value$334,898Weight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.0% ▼
  • Jeremy Grantham
    Value$217,029Weight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.0% ▼

SEC 13F · notes

Written summary

Costco Wholesale Corp (COST) is held by 8 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $276.2M in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Shad Rowe, where it makes up 15.5% of the portfolio.

Other notable holders by value include Thomas Gayner (0.3% of its book), Ray Dalio (0.1% of its book) and Thomas Russo (0.0% of its book).

Over the latest quarter, 0 of the tracked filers opened a new position in COST, 1 added to existing ones, 6 trimmed, and 0 sold out entirely.

Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.

How to read a 13F

SEC 13F · co-ownership

Also held by these investors

Investors holding Costco Wholesale Corp (COST) also commonly hold →

COST's price is not below its conservative value band. See current strike-zone stocks

Also on

Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-14

Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.

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