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Etsy Inc

ETSYAbove value

Held by 2 superinvestors.

Price$84.03
Holders2
Total value$98.1M

SEC 10-K · fundamentals

Business quality

as of 2025-12-31
Revenue growth
+2.7%
Net margin
5.7%
ROE
-14.8%
FCF margin
23.5%
Revenue $1.73B → $2.88B · 6y
What makes a business high quality

Valuation · value band

Above fair value

$8/ sh · growth-anchored intrinsic value
margin of safety
fair value
above fair value
$84
cheaperpricier

Zero-growth floor

$7

Central IV

$8

Optimistic top

$8

Etsy Inc (ETSY): A conservative value band $7–$8 / sh (zero-growth floor to growth-capped optimistic top); central read about $8. Today’s price sits above that band (price $84 as of 2026-07-20).

The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.

  • Recent earnings are below the multi-year average, so the band uses the lower run-rate.

Revenue growth 0% (history declining, capped at zero) · moat 0 yr · discount 14.5% · Zero-growth downside $7

Price as of 2026-07-20 · yahoo · DGS10 4.5% @ 2026-07-17.

Method & numbers

Model cautions

  • Owner-earnings yield diverges sharply from the 10-year Treasury (over 300 bps).

A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.

Owner-earnings DCF $6.86 – $8.41 · Greenwald zero-growth $8.44 · zero-growth base $8.44 · reproduction $0.32

Moat Below asset base · terminal value 26% of present value · owner-earnings yield 1% vs 10Y 4.5%.

Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$-2.31 – $0.02 / sh

Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.

Years: 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex (degraded) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Only one maintenance-capex method available; estimate is degraded. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back).

Buffett owner-earnings value$7.32 – $8.44 / sh

Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 13.0–15.0% band (9–11% base + 4.0pp leverage premium). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).

Years: 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

v1 simplifications: Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Only one maintenance-capex method available; estimate is degraded. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% base band plus a 4.0pp leverage premium (cost of equity rises with leverage — MM Proposition II). Net debt is about 11.6 years of owner earnings, adding 4.0pp of cost-of-equity risk premium.

Reproduction value = tangible net assets $-1.43B + capitalized R&D $1.31B（FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021） = $0.32 / sh. Reproduction value = intangible-inclusive net reproduction (tangible net assets + acquired-intangible reset proxy + capitalized R&D), ÷ diluted shares; tangible net assets alone are negative for this asset-light franchise.

Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value (tangible net assets + capitalized R&D). EPV well above reproduction value signals a moat; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.

Growth value gated to zero — no moat or ROIIC ≤ WACC, so no growth value is credited.

Window FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 9% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.

Baseline 9%–11%, net debt ≈ 11.6 years of owner earnings → +4.0pp cost-of-equity premium → effective 13.0%–15.0%.

Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 0% (history declining → capped at 0) · OE FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 13.05%–16.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, each +4.00pp for leverage premium, as of 2026-07-17). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.

What the price is betting

Today's price pencils in about over 30.0% (outside the usual range) a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 9.6% a year.

The market wants it well ahead of its own track record.

Even when the value band is low-confidence: use this to see what the price assumes — not as a cheapness confirmation.

How to read intrinsic value

SEC 13F · holders

Superinvestors Holding This Security

2 holders · $98.1M combined · this quarter +0 opened / -1 exited

This quarter1 trimmed1 exited
Holders 5 → 1 · last 8q
  • Brian Bares
    Value$94.7MWeight (prev→now)7.0% → 8.7% ▲
  • Ray Dalio
    Value$3.4MWeight (prev→now)0.1% → 0.0% ▼
Exited this quarter (1)
Lee Ainslie

SEC 13F · notes

Written summary

Etsy Inc (ETSY) is held by 2 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $98.1M in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Brian Bares, where it makes up 8.7% of the portfolio.

Other notable holders by value include Ray Dalio (0.0% of its book).

Over the latest quarter, 0 of the tracked filers opened a new position in ETSY, 0 added to existing ones, 1 trimmed, and 1 sold out entirely.

Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-03-31. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.

How to read a 13F

SEC 13F · co-ownership

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Also on

Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-03-31 · filed 2026-05-15

Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.

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