Fabrinet
FNWithin bandHeld by 3 superinvestors.
SEC 10-K · fundamentals
Business quality
as of 2026-06-26- Revenue growth
- +35.7%
- Net margin
- 10.2%
- ROE
- 19.3%
- FCF margin
- 0.1%
Valuation · value band
In fair-value range
Zero-growth floor
$90
Central IV
$420
Optimistic top
$546
Fabrinet (FN): A conservative value band $90–$546 / sh (zero-growth floor to growth-capped optimistic top); central read about $420. Today’s price sits inside that band (price $432 as of 2026-08-25).
The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.
- Capex doubled in two years, so maintenance is hard to pin down — read the band conservatively.
Revenue growth 18% (lower of historical trend and fundamental cap, capped by moat) · moat 20 yr · discount 10.6% · Zero-growth downside $90
Price as of 2026-08-25 · yahoo · DGS10 4.6% @ 2026-08-25.
Method & numbers
Model cautions
- Capex doubled within two years: maintenance is floored then capped at D&A (OE may look optimistic); Greenwald growth value is closed — growth credit stays in the owner-earnings DCF only.
- Growth nearly matches the discount rate — the estimate is sensitive to assumptions.
A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.
Owner-earnings DCF $131.04 – $545.51 · Greenwald zero-growth $135.93 · zero-growth base $135.93 · reproduction $67.63
Moat Franchise (moat) · terminal value 33% of present value · owner-earnings yield 2% vs 10Y 4.6%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$112.95 – $135.93 / sh
Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.
Years: 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex (degraded) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 70% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. Capex doubled within two years (AI-hog rule): flagged; the spike is treated as growth, not maintenance — owner earnings carry extra uncertainty. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back).
Buffett owner-earnings value$90.31 – $110.38 / sh
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
Years: 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 70% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. Capex doubled within two years (AI-hog rule): flagged; the spike is treated as growth, not maintenance — owner earnings carry extra uncertainty. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy; no leverage premium applied (net cash or debt within the no-charge range).
Reproduction value = tangible net assets $2.45B = $67.63 / sh. Tangible net assets = shareholders' equity − goodwill − intangibles, ÷ diluted shares (no R&D history to capitalize).
Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
Assumes a wide moat · competitive-advantage period ≈ 20 years (earnings intact, ROIC stable over history).
Growth value gated to zero — capex doubled within two years (AI-hog); growth credit stays in the owner-earnings DCF only.
Window FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 7% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.
Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 18% · OE FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 9.14%–12.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, as of 2026-08-25). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.
What the price is betting
Today's price pencils in about 18.5% a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 18.2% a year.
About its own track record.
Roughly, the price needs its historical revenue growth to run about 13 more years to hold up.
Even when the value band is low-confidence: use this to see what the price assumes — not as a cheapness confirmation.
SEC 13F · holders
Superinvestors Holding This Security
3 holders · $341.3M combined · this quarter +1 opened / -0 exited
- Value$339.1MWeight (prev→now)1.2% → 3.3% ▲
- Value$1.2MWeight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.0% ▲
- Value$980,268Weight (prev→now)New · 0.0%
SEC 13F · notes
Written summary
Written summary
Fabrinet (FN) is held by 3 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $341.3M in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Henry Ellenbogen, where it makes up 3.3% of the portfolio.
Other notable holders by value include Polen Capital (0.0% of its book) and Ray Dalio (0.0% of its book).
Over the latest quarter, 1 of the tracked filers opened a new position in FN, 2 added to existing ones, 0 trimmed, and 0 sold out entirely.
Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.
SEC 13F · co-ownership
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Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-14
Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.
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