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Xpo Inc

XPOAbove value

Held by 4 superinvestors.

Price$191.93
Holders4
Total value$505.2M

SEC 10-K · fundamentals

Business quality

as of 2025-12-31

Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.

Revenue growth
+1.1%
Net margin
3.9%
ROE
17.0%
FCF margin
4.0%
Revenue $16.25B → $8.16B · 6y
What makes a business high quality

Valuation · value band

Above fair value

$39/ sh · growth-anchored intrinsic value
margin of safety
fair value
above fair value
$192
cheaperpricier

Zero-growth floor

$17

Central IV

$39

Optimistic top

$46

Xpo Inc (XPO): Two methods value the business — a conservative owner-earnings DCF and a growth-credited Greenwald estimate, $17–$46 / sh. Today’s price sits above both (price $192 as of 2026-08-25).

The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.

Revenue growth 4% (lower of historical trend and fundamental cap, capped by moat) · moat 10 yr · discount 12.5% · Zero-growth downside $17

Price as of 2026-08-25 · yahoo · DGS10 4.6% @ 2026-08-25.

Method & numbers

A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.

Owner-earnings DCF $28.76 – $46.23 · Greenwald $33.45 – $38.12 (neutral $33.45) · zero-growth base $33.45 · reproduction $1.31

Moat Franchise (moat) · terminal value 40% of present value · owner-earnings yield 2% vs 10Y 4.6%.

Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$16.98 – $26.39 / sh

Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.

Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex (ok) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back).

Buffett owner-earnings value$28.29 – $33.45 / sh

Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 11.0–13.0% band (9–11% base + 2.0pp leverage premium). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).

Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

v1 simplifications: Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (ok); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% base band plus a 2.0pp leverage premium (cost of equity rises with leverage — MM Proposition II). Net debt is about 6.9 years of owner earnings, adding 2.0pp of cost-of-equity risk premium.

Reproduction value = tangible net assets $154.00M = $1.31 / sh. Tangible net assets = shareholders' equity − goodwill − intangibles, ÷ diluted shares (no R&D history to capitalize).

Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.

Assumes a narrow moat · competitive-advantage period ≈ 10 years.

Growth value: if the moat holds for 10 yr at ROIIC ≈ 9%, $0.00–$4.67 / sh (neutral $0.00). Conservative, not a forecast.

Window TTM 2026-06-30, FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 21% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.

Baseline 9%–11%, net debt ≈ 6.9 years of owner earnings → +2.0pp cost-of-equity premium → effective 11.0%–13.0%.

Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 4% · OE FY TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 11.10%–13.96% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, each +1.96pp for leverage premium, as of 2026-08-25). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp. Two-method midpoint gap 16%.

Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.

How to read intrinsic value

SEC 13F · holders

Superinvestors Holding This Security

4 holders · $505.2M combined · this quarter +1 opened / -0 exited

This quarter1 opened1 added1 trimmed
Holders 2 → 4 · last 8q

SEC 13F · notes

Written summary

Xpo Inc (XPO) is held by 4 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $505.2M in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Henry Ellenbogen, where it makes up 4.8% of the portfolio.

Other notable holders by value include Ray Dalio (0.0% of its book), Mason Hawkins (0.1% of its book) and Polen Capital (0.0% of its book).

Over the latest quarter, 1 of the tracked filers opened a new position in XPO, 1 added to existing ones, 1 trimmed, and 0 sold out entirely.

Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.

How to read a 13F

SEC 13F · co-ownership

Also held by these investors

Investors holding Xpo Inc (XPO) also commonly hold →

XPO's price is not below its conservative value band. See current strike-zone stocks

Also on

Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-14

Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.

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