Howmet Aerospace Inc
HWMAbove valueExpectations · demandingHeld by 2 superinvestors.
SEC 10-K · fundamentals
Business quality
as of 2025-12-31Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
- Revenue growth
- +11.1%
- Net margin
- 18.3%
- ROE
- 28.2%
- FCF margin
- 17.3%
Valuation · value band
Above fair value
Zero-growth floor
$23
Central IV
$28
Optimistic top
$134
Howmet Aerospace Inc (HWM): Two methods value the business — a conservative owner-earnings DCF and a growth-credited Greenwald estimate, $23–$134 / sh. Today’s price sits above both (price $264 as of 2026-08-25).
The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.
Revenue growth 1% (lower of historical trend and fundamental cap, capped by moat) · moat 10 yr · discount 10.9% · Zero-growth downside $23
Price as of 2026-08-25 · yahoo · DGS10 4.7% @ 2026-08-24.
Method & numbers
Model cautions
- Owner-earnings yield diverges sharply from the 10-year Treasury (over 300 bps).
- The two methods’ midpoints differ materially — growth assumptions warrant review (over 20%).
A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.
Owner-earnings DCF $22.31 – $32.36 · Greenwald $70.96 – $133.70 (neutral $101.54) · zero-growth base $30.40 · reproduction $7.05
Moat Franchise (moat) · terminal value 40% of present value · owner-earnings yield 1% vs 10Y 4.7%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$23.10 – $30.40 / sh
Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.
Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex (ok) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back).
Buffett owner-earnings value$23.44 – $28.46 / sh
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9.3–11.3% band (9–11% base + 0.3pp leverage premium). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (ok); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% base band plus a 0.3pp leverage premium (cost of equity rises with leverage — MM Proposition II). Net debt is about 3.7 years of owner earnings, adding 0.3pp of cost-of-equity risk premium.
Reproduction value = tangible net assets $-221.00M + capitalized R&D $77.60M（FY 2026, 2024, 2023, 2022） = $7.05 / sh. Reproduction value = intangible-inclusive net reproduction (tangible net assets + acquired-intangible reset proxy + capitalized R&D), ÷ diluted shares; tangible net assets alone are negative for this asset-light franchise.
Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value (tangible net assets + capitalized R&D). EPV well above reproduction value signals a moat; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
Assumes a narrow moat · competitive-advantage period ≈ 10 years.
Growth value: if the moat holds for 10 yr at ROIIC ≈ 2919%, $40.56–$103.29 / sh (neutral $71.14). Conservative, not a forecast.
Window TTM 2026-06-30, FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 20% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.
Baseline 9%–11%, net debt ≈ 3.7 years of owner earnings → +0.3pp cost-of-equity premium → effective 9.3%–11.3%.
Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 1% · OE FY TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 9.54%–12.34% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, each +0.34pp for leverage premium, as of 2026-08-24). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp. Two-method midpoint gap 114%.
Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
What the price is betting
Today's price pencils in about over 30.0% (outside the usual range) a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 10.9% a year.
The market wants it well ahead of its own track record.
SEC 13F · holders
Superinvestors Holding This Security
2 holders · $130.4M combined · this quarter +1 opened / -0 exited
- Value$122.9MWeight (prev→now)New · 1.1%
- Value$7.5MWeight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.0% ▲
SEC 13F · notes
Written summary
Written summary
Howmet Aerospace Inc (HWM) is held by 2 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $130.4M in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Polen Capital, where it makes up 1.1% of the portfolio.
Other notable holders by value include Ray Dalio (0.0% of its book).
Over the latest quarter, 1 of the tracked filers opened a new position in HWM, 1 added to existing ones, 0 trimmed, and 0 sold out entirely.
Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.
SEC 13F · co-ownership
Also held by these investors
Investors holding Howmet Aerospace Inc (HWM) also commonly hold →
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HWM's price is not below its conservative value band. See current strike-zone stocks
Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-14
Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.
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