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Intercontinental Exchange In

ICEAbove value

Held by 8 superinvestors.

Price$161.92
Holders8
Total value$3.03B

SEC 10-K · fundamentals

Business quality

as of 2025-12-31

Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.

Revenue growth
+7.5%
Net margin
26.2%
ROE
11.5%
FCF margin
33.9%
Revenue $8.24B → $12.64B · 6y
What makes a business high quality

Valuation · value band

Above fair value

$41/ sh · growth-anchored intrinsic value
margin of safety
fair value
above fair value
$162
cheaperpricier

Zero-growth floor

$29

Central IV

$41

Optimistic top

$47

Intercontinental Exchange In (ICE): A conservative value band $29–$47 / sh (zero-growth floor to growth-capped optimistic top); central read about $41. Today’s price sits above that band (price $162 as of 2026-08-26).

The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.

  • Capex doubled in two years, so maintenance is hard to pin down — read the band conservatively.
  • Recent earnings are below the multi-year average, so the band uses the lower run-rate.

Revenue growth 0% (history declining, capped at zero) · moat 10 yr · discount 12.5% · Zero-growth downside $29

Price as of 2026-08-26 · yahoo · DGS10 4.7% @ 2026-08-26.

Method & numbers

Model cautions

  • Capex doubled within two years: maintenance is floored then capped at D&A (OE may look optimistic); Greenwald growth value is closed — growth credit stays in the owner-earnings DCF only.

A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.

Owner-earnings DCF $36.53 – $45.86 · Greenwald zero-growth $46.53 · zero-growth base $46.53 · reproduction $12.01

Moat Franchise (moat) · terminal value 31% of present value · owner-earnings yield 3% vs 10Y 4.7%.

Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$29.42 – $43.81 / sh

Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.

Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex (degraded) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Only one maintenance-capex method available; estimate is degraded. Capex doubled within two years (AI-hog rule): flagged; the spike is treated as growth, not maintenance — owner earnings carry extra uncertainty. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back).

Buffett owner-earnings value$39.35 – $46.53 / sh

Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 11.0–13.0% band (9–11% base + 2.0pp leverage premium). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).

Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

v1 simplifications: Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Only one maintenance-capex method available; estimate is degraded. Capex doubled within two years (AI-hog rule): flagged; the spike is treated as growth, not maintenance — owner earnings carry extra uncertainty. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% base band plus a 2.0pp leverage premium (cost of equity rises with leverage — MM Proposition II). Net debt is about 6.9 years of owner earnings, adding 2.0pp of cost-of-equity risk premium.

Asset floor: Reproduction value = tangible net assets + acquired-intangible reset proxy, ÷ diluted shares; tangible net assets alone are negative for this asset-light franchise (no R&D history to capitalize).

Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value (tangible net assets + capitalized R&D). EPV well above reproduction value signals a moat; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.

Assumes a narrow moat · competitive-advantage period ≈ 10 years.

Growth value gated to zero — capex doubled within two years (AI-hog); growth credit stays in the owner-earnings DCF only.

Window TTM 2026-06-30, FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 21% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.

Baseline 9%–11%, net debt ≈ 6.9 years of owner earnings → +2.0pp cost-of-equity premium → effective 11.0%–13.0%.

Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 0% (history declining → capped at 0) · OE FY TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 11.12%–13.96% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, each +1.96pp for leverage premium, as of 2026-08-26). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.

Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.

What the price is betting

Today's price pencils in about 28.0% a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 8.7% a year.

The market wants it well ahead of its own track record.

Even when the value band is low-confidence: use this to see what the price assumes — not as a cheapness confirmation.

How to read intrinsic value

SEC 13F · holders

Superinvestors Holding This Security

8 holders · $3.03B combined · this quarter +1 opened / -0 exited

This quarter1 opened1 added4 trimmed
Holders 9 → 8 · last 8q

SEC 13F · notes

Written summary

Intercontinental Exchange In (ICE) is held by 8 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $3.03B in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Bill Nygren, where it makes up 3.0% of the portfolio.

Other notable holders by value include Andreas Halvorsen (1.0% of its book), Ruane, Cunniff (Sequoia) (4.9% of its book) and Nicolai Tangen (2.9% of its book).

Over the latest quarter, 1 of the tracked filers opened a new position in ICE, 1 added to existing ones, 4 trimmed, and 0 sold out entirely.

Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.

How to read a 13F

SEC 13F · co-ownership

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Also on

Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-14

Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.

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