Intercontinental Exchange In
ICE高于价值7 位超级投资者持有。
SEC 10-K · 基本面
生意质量
截至 2025-12-31- 营收增速
- +7.5%
- 净利率
- 26.2%
- ROE
- 11.5%
- FCF 利润率
- 33.9%
估值 · 价值带
高于合理价值
零增长底
$25
中枢 IV
$33
乐观上沿
$38
Intercontinental Exchange In（ICE）：保守价值带 $25–$38 / 股（零增长底到增速封顶的乐观上沿），中枢约 $33。今日价格高于这条带（价格 $143 截至 2026-07-22）。
中间是主读数；右侧上沿是同一套保守假设下的乐观档，不是绝对上限。
- 最新盈利低于多年均值，价值带按更低的运行率计。
营收增 0%（历史下滑，封顶为零） · 护城河 10 年 · 折现 13.0% · 零增长下行 $25
价格截至 2026-07-22 · yahoo · DGS10 4.6% @ 2026-07-21.
方法与数字
保守内在价值带（零增长底到增速封顶的 DCF）加一道有形资产地板 — 非投资建议、非买卖信号、亦非目标价。
所有者盈利 DCF $30.03 – $37.46 · Greenwald 零增长 $38.16 · 零增长基准 $38.16 · 重置 $10.29
护城河 特许经营（护城河） · 终值占现值 29% · 所有者盈利收益率 3% 对 10Y 4.6%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$24.95 – $38.16 / 股
Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.
年份：2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 简化：Maintenance capex (degraded) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Only one maintenance-capex method available; estimate is degraded. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back).
Buffett owner-earnings value$32.26 – $37.88 / 股
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 11.5–13.5% band (9–11% base + 2.5pp leverage premium). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
年份：2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 简化：Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Only one maintenance-capex method available; estimate is degraded. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% base band plus a 2.5pp leverage premium (cost of equity rises with leverage — MM Proposition II). Net debt is about 7.9 years of owner earnings, adding 2.5pp of cost-of-equity risk premium.
资产地板：Reproduction value = tangible net assets + acquired-intangible reset proxy, ÷ diluted shares; tangible net assets alone are negative for this asset-light franchise (no R&D history to capitalize).
护城河读数：Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value (tangible net assets + capitalized R&D). EPV well above reproduction value signals a moat; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
假设一般护城河 · 竞争优势期约 10 年。
增长价值无法评估 — No positive growth reinvestment in the matured window, so ROIIC cannot be computed.
窗口 FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · 贴现带 9%–11% · 正常化税率 21% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · 股数 diluted.
基线 9%–11%，净债务约 7.9 年所有者盈利 → 加 2.5 个百分点风险溢价 → 实际 11.5%–13.5%。
所有者盈利 DCF：增长 g₁ 0%（历史下滑 → 封顶为 0） · OE FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 11.60%–14.47% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, each +2.47pp for leverage premium, as of 2026-07-21). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.
价格在赌什么
现价把公司未来几年的 owner-earnings 年增定在 29.8%；公司过去营收年增 8.7%。
市场要它明显快过自己一贯的水平。
价值带信心不足时仍可对照：这里只说明市场在赌多快，不把它当成「确认便宜」。
SEC 13F · 持有人
持有该证券的超级投资者
7 位持有 · 合计 $4.51B · 本季 +0 新建 / -1 清仓
- 市值$2.57B权重（上季→本季）3.2% → 3.4% ▲
- 市值$760.7M权重（上季→本季）2.1% → 2.1% ▲
- 市值$462.7M权重（上季→本季）2.9% → 3.1% ▲
- 市值$415.1M权重（上季→本季）6.8% → 6.9% ▲
- 市值$293.7M权重（上季→本季）5.1% → 5.7% ▲
- 市值$4.5M权重（上季→本季）0.0% → 0.0% ▲
- 市值$631,636权重（上季→本季）0.2% → 0.2% ▲
SEC 13F · 说明
文字说明
文字说明
Intercontinental Exchange In（ICE）被 Compounder 追踪的 7 位超级投资者持有，合计申报市值 $4.51B。仓位最大的是 Bill Nygren，占其组合 3.4%。
按市值，其他主要持有人包括 Andreas Halvorsen（占其组合 2.1%），William von Mueffling（占其组合 3.1%） 和 Ruane, Cunniff (Sequoia)（占其组合 6.9%）。
最近一个季度，追踪范围内有 0 位新建 ICE 仓位，3 位加仓，3 位减仓，1 位清仓。
以上持有人数与市值来自最新的 SEC Form 13F 申报，截至 2026-03-31 季度。来源：SEC EDGAR。13F 仅涵盖美股多头持仓，且可能滞后实际组合最多 45 天，因此这是已披露的多头持有情况，并非完整全貌。
SEC 13F · 共持信号
他们还共同持有
持有 Intercontinental Exchange In（ICE）的这些人还共同重仓 →
看哪些股票相对价值带便宜。 浏览全部可估值股票
数据来源· SEC EDGAR 13F 截至 2026-03-31 · 2026-05-15 提交
仅供教育与信息参考，不构成投资建议。13F 持仓为机构自行申报，可能滞后最多 45 天。
订阅更新
新一季 13F 异动与估值更新，发到你的邮箱。