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Johnson Controls Internation

JCIAbove valueExpectations · demanding

Held by 5 superinvestors.

Price$144.33
Holders5
Total value$9.03B

SEC 10-K · fundamentals

Business quality

as of 2025-09-30

Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-03-31 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.

Revenue growth
+2.8%
Net margin
13.9%
ROE
25.5%
FCF margin
9.0%
Revenue $22.32B → $23.60B · 6y
What makes a business high quality

Valuation · value band

Above fair value

$43/ sh · growth-anchored intrinsic value
margin of safety
fair value
above fair value
$144
cheaperpricier

Zero-growth floor

$39

Central IV

$43

Optimistic top

$50

Johnson Controls Internation (JCI): A conservative value band $39–$50 / sh (zero-growth floor to growth-capped optimistic top); central read about $43. Today’s price sits above that band (price $144 as of 2026-08-26).

The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.

Revenue growth 1% (lower of historical trend and fundamental cap, capped by moat) · moat 10 yr · discount 10.7% · Zero-growth downside $39

Price as of 2026-08-26 · yahoo · DGS10 4.7% @ 2026-08-26.

Method & numbers

Operating income is not reported separately (e.g. banks, insurers, and some diversified issuers), so earnings power is shown via the owner-earnings lens only; the unlevered NOPAT lens does not apply.

A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.

Owner-earnings DCF $36.43 – $50.30 · Greenwald zero-growth $47.53 · zero-growth base $47.53 · reproduction $6.71

Moat Franchise (moat) · terminal value 38% of present value · owner-earnings yield 3% vs 10Y 4.7%.

Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)

Operating income is not reported separately (e.g. banks, insurers, and some diversified issuers), so earnings power is shown via the owner-earnings lens only; the unlevered NOPAT lens does not apply.

Normalized NOPAT from operating margin — not applicable when operating income is not reported separately. Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge (+ cash − total debt) — not applied (lens not assessable).

Years: TTM 2026-03-31, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

Buffett owner-earnings value$39.00 – $47.53 / sh

Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9.1–11.1% band (9–11% base + 0.1pp leverage premium). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).

Years: TTM 2026-03-31, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

v1 simplifications: Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 288% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% base band plus a 0.1pp leverage premium (cost of equity rises with leverage — MM Proposition II). Net debt is about 3.3 years of owner earnings, adding 0.1pp of cost-of-equity risk premium.

Reproduction value = tangible net assets $-6.51B + capitalized R&D $620.20M（FY 2026, 2024, 2023, 2022） = $6.71 / sh. Reproduction value = intangible-inclusive net reproduction (tangible net assets + acquired-intangible reset proxy + capitalized R&D), ÷ diluted shares; tangible net assets alone are negative for this asset-light franchise.

Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value (tangible net assets + capitalized R&D). EPV well above reproduction value signals a moat; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.

Assumes a narrow moat · competitive-advantage period ≈ 10 years.

Growth value not assessable — Operating income is not available across the window, so ROIIC / growth value cannot be computed.

Window TTM 2026-03-31, FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 8% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.

Baseline 9%–11%, net debt ≈ 3.3 years of owner earnings → +0.1pp cost-of-equity premium → effective 9.1%–11.1%.

Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 1% · OE FY TTM 2026-03-31, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 9.31%–12.15% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, each +0.15pp for leverage premium, as of 2026-08-26). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.

Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-03-31 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.

What the price is betting

Today's price pencils in about 24.1% a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 0.7% a year.

The market wants it well ahead of its own track record.

How to read intrinsic value

SEC 13F · holders

Superinvestors Holding This Security

5 holders · $9.03B combined · this quarter +0 opened / -0 exited

This quarter4 trimmed
Holders 5 → 5 · last 8q

SEC 13F · notes

Written summary

Johnson Controls Internation (JCI) is held by 5 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $9.03B in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Dodge & Cox, where it makes up 4.3% of the portfolio.

Other notable holders by value include Andreas Halvorsen (1.8% of its book), Jim Cullen (2.4% of its book) and Christopher Davis (0.1% of its book).

Over the latest quarter, 0 of the tracked filers opened a new position in JCI, 0 added to existing ones, 4 trimmed, and 0 sold out entirely.

Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.

How to read a 13F

SEC 13F · co-ownership

Also held by these investors

Investors holding Johnson Controls Internation (JCI) also commonly hold →

JCI's price is not below its conservative value band. See current strike-zone stocks

Also on

Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-14

Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.

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