Johnson Controls Internation
JCI高于价值预期 · 苛刻5 位超级投资者持有。
SEC 10-K · 基本面
生意质量
截至 2025-09-30估值口径：截至 2026-03-31 的滚动十二个月（最新 10-K 叠加未审计 10-Q）。
- 营收增速
- +2.8%
- 净利率
- 13.9%
- ROE
- 25.5%
- FCF 利润率
- 9.0%
估值 · 价值带
高于合理价值
零增长底
$39
中枢 IV
$43
乐观上沿
$50
Johnson Controls Internation（JCI）：保守价值带 $39–$50 / 股（零增长底到增速封顶的乐观上沿），中枢约 $43。今日价格高于这条带（价格 $144 截至 2026-08-26）。
中间是主读数；右侧上沿是同一套保守假设下的乐观档，不是绝对上限。
营收增 1%（历史增长与基本面上限的较小值，受护城河封顶） · 护城河 10 年 · 折现 10.7% · 零增长下行 $39
价格截至 2026-08-26 · yahoo · DGS10 4.6% @ 2026-08-25.
方法与数字
Operating income is not reported separately (e.g. banks, insurers, and some diversified issuers), so earnings power is shown via the owner-earnings lens only; the unlevered NOPAT lens does not apply.
保守内在价值带（零增长底到增速封顶的 DCF）加一道有形资产地板 — 非投资建议、非买卖信号、亦非目标价。
所有者盈利 DCF $36.43 – $50.41 · Greenwald 零增长 $47.53 · 零增长基准 $47.53 · 重置 $6.71
护城河 特许经营（护城河） · 终值占现值 38% · 所有者盈利收益率 3% 对 10Y 4.6%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)
Operating income is not reported separately (e.g. banks, insurers, and some diversified issuers), so earnings power is shown via the owner-earnings lens only; the unlevered NOPAT lens does not apply.
Normalized NOPAT from operating margin — not applicable when operating income is not reported separately. Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge (+ cash − total debt) — not applied (lens not assessable).
年份：TTM 2026-03-31, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
Buffett owner-earnings value$39.00 – $47.53 / 股
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9.1–11.1% band (9–11% base + 0.1pp leverage premium). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
年份：TTM 2026-03-31, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 简化：Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 288% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% base band plus a 0.1pp leverage premium (cost of equity rises with leverage — MM Proposition II). Net debt is about 3.3 years of owner earnings, adding 0.1pp of cost-of-equity risk premium.
重置价值 = 有形净资产 $-6.51B + 资本化研发 $620.20M（FY 2026, 2024, 2023, 2022） = $6.71 / 股. Reproduction value = intangible-inclusive net reproduction (tangible net assets + acquired-intangible reset proxy + capitalized R&D), ÷ diluted shares; tangible net assets alone are negative for this asset-light franchise.
护城河读数：Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value (tangible net assets + capitalized R&D). EPV well above reproduction value signals a moat; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
假设一般护城河 · 竞争优势期约 10 年。
增长价值无法评估 — Operating income is not available across the window, so ROIIC / growth value cannot be computed.
窗口 TTM 2026-03-31, FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · 贴现带 9%–11% · 正常化税率 8% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · 股数 diluted.
基线 9%–11%，净债务约 3.3 年所有者盈利 → 加 0.1 个百分点风险溢价 → 实际 9.1%–11.1%。
所有者盈利 DCF：增长 g₁ 1% · OE FY TTM 2026-03-31, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 9.29%–12.15% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, each +0.15pp for leverage premium, as of 2026-08-25). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.
估值口径：截至 2026-03-31 的滚动十二个月（最新 10-K 叠加未审计 10-Q）。
价格在赌什么
现价把公司未来几年的 owner-earnings 年增定在 24.1%；公司过去营收年增 0.7%。
市场要它明显快过自己一贯的水平。
SEC 13F · 持有人
持有该证券的超级投资者
5 位持有 · 合计 $9.03B · 本季 +0 新建 / -0 清仓
- 市值$8.15B权重（上季→本季）4.1% → 4.3% ▲
- 市值$614.1M权重（上季→本季）1.6% → 1.8% ▲
- 市值$244.2M权重（上季→本季）2.3% → 2.4% ▲
- 市值$20.7M权重（上季→本季）0.1% → 0.1% ▼
- 市值$1.1M权重（上季→本季）0.0% → 0.0% ▲
SEC 13F · 说明
文字说明
文字说明
Johnson Controls Internation（JCI）被 Compounder 追踪的 5 位超级投资者持有，合计申报市值 $9.03B。仓位最大的是 Dodge & Cox，占其组合 4.3%。
按市值，其他主要持有人包括 Andreas Halvorsen（占其组合 1.8%），Jim Cullen（占其组合 2.4%） 和 Christopher Davis（占其组合 0.1%）。
最近一个季度，追踪范围内有 0 位新建 JCI 仓位，0 位加仓，4 位减仓，0 位清仓。
以上持有人数与市值来自最新的 SEC Form 13F 申报，截至 2026-06-30 季度。来源：SEC EDGAR。13F 仅涵盖美股多头持仓，且可能滞后实际组合最多 45 天，因此这是已披露的多头持有情况，并非完整全貌。
SEC 13F · 共持信号
他们还共同持有
持有 Johnson Controls Internation（JCI）的这些人还共同重仓 →
JCI 现价不低于保守价值带。 看当前击球区股票
数据来源· SEC EDGAR 13F 截至 2026-06-30 · 2026-08-14 提交
仅供教育与信息参考，不构成投资建议。13F 持仓为机构自行申报，可能滞后最多 45 天。
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