Skip to content
Compounder
← Stocks

Prog Holdings Inc

PRGWithin band

Held by 3 superinvestors.

Price$39.77
Holders3
Total value$16.8M

SEC 10-K · fundamentals

Business quality

as of 2025-12-31

Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.

Revenue growth
-2.2%
Net margin
6.1%
ROE
19.7%
FCF margin
13.5%
Revenue $2.48B → $2.41B · 6y
What makes a business high quality

Valuation · value band

In fair-value range

$35/ sh · growth-anchored intrinsic value
margin of safety
fair value
above fair value
$40
cheaperpricier

Zero-growth floor

$26

Central IV

$35

Optimistic top

$40

Prog Holdings Inc (PRG): Two methods value the business — a conservative owner-earnings DCF and a growth-credited Greenwald estimate, $26–$40 / sh. Today’s price sits inside both (price $40 as of 2026-08-26).

The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.

  • Recent earnings are below the multi-year average, so the band uses the lower run-rate.

Revenue growth 0% (history declining, capped at zero) · moat 10 yr · discount 11.5% · Zero-growth downside $26

Price as of 2026-08-26 · yahoo · DGS10 4.7% @ 2026-08-26.

Method & numbers

Model cautions

  • Owner-earnings yield diverges sharply from the 10-year Treasury (over 300 bps).

A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.

Owner-earnings DCF $30.73 – $39.35 · Greenwald $39.98 – $39.98 (neutral $39.98) · zero-growth base $39.98 · reproduction $2.34

Moat Franchise (moat) · terminal value 34% of present value · owner-earnings yield 10% vs 10Y 4.7%.

Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$25.62 – $35.69 / sh

Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.

Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex (degraded) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 277% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back). Operating margin is below its multi-year average (cyclical/declining): normalized margin capped at the latest year — no peak-margin capitalization (audit #2).

Buffett owner-earnings value$33.30 – $39.98 / sh

Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 10.0–12.0% band (9–11% base + 1.0pp leverage premium). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).

Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

v1 simplifications: Net income is below its multi-year average (cyclical/declining): normalized owner earnings anchored to the latest year — no peak-earnings capitalization (audit #2). Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 277% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% base band plus a 1.0pp leverage premium (cost of equity rises with leverage — MM Proposition II). Net debt is about 4.9 years of owner earnings, adding 1.0pp of cost-of-equity risk premium.

Reproduction value = tangible net assets $95.25M = $2.34 / sh. Tangible net assets = shareholders' equity − goodwill − intangibles, ÷ diluted shares (no R&D history to capitalize).

Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.

Assumes a narrow moat · competitive-advantage period ≈ 10 years.

Growth value: if the moat holds for 10 yr at ROIIC ≈ -3291%, $0.00–$0.00 / sh (neutral $0.00). Conservative, not a forecast.

Window TTM 2026-06-30, FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 19% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.

Baseline 9%–11%, net debt ≈ 4.9 years of owner earnings → +1.0pp cost-of-equity premium → effective 10.0%–12.0%.

Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 0% (history declining → capped at 0) · OE FY TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 10.13%–12.97% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, each +0.97pp for leverage premium, as of 2026-08-26). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp. Two-method midpoint gap 15%.

Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.

How to read intrinsic value

SEC 13F · holders

Superinvestors Holding This Security

3 holders · $16.8M combined · this quarter +0 opened / -0 exited

This quarter2 added1 trimmed
Holders 2 → 3 · last 8q

SEC 13F · notes

Written summary

Prog Holdings Inc (PRG) is held by 3 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $16.8M in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to C.T. Fitzpatrick, where it makes up 0.4% of the portfolio.

Other notable holders by value include Ray Dalio (0.0% of its book) and Jeremy Grantham (0.0% of its book).

Over the latest quarter, 0 of the tracked filers opened a new position in PRG, 2 added to existing ones, 1 trimmed, and 0 sold out entirely.

Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.

How to read a 13F

SEC 13F · co-ownership

Also held by these investors

Investors holding Prog Holdings Inc (PRG) also commonly hold →

See which stocks look cheap against a conservative value band. Browse all valued stocks

Also on

Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-14

Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.

Stay Updated

New-quarter 13F moves and valuation updates, to your inbox.