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Rockwell Automation Inc

ROKAbove value

Held by 3 superinvestors.

Price$431.75
Holders3
Total value$90.9M

SEC 10-K · fundamentals

Business quality

as of 2025-09-30

Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.

Revenue growth
+0.9%
Net margin
10.4%
ROE
23.8%
FCF margin
16.3%
Revenue $6.33B → $8.34B · 6y
What makes a business high quality

Valuation · value band

Above fair value

$111/ sh · growth-anchored intrinsic value
margin of safety
fair value
above fair value
$432
cheaperpricier

Zero-growth floor

$107

Central IV

$111

Optimistic top

$217

Rockwell Automation Inc (ROK): Two methods value the business — a conservative owner-earnings DCF and a growth-credited Greenwald estimate, $107–$217 / sh. Today’s price sits above both (price $432 as of 2026-08-26).

The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.

  • Recent earnings are below the multi-year average, so the band uses the lower run-rate.

Revenue growth 0% (history declining, capped at zero) · moat 10 yr · discount 10.6% · Zero-growth downside $107

Price as of 2026-08-26 · yahoo · DGS10 4.7% @ 2026-08-26.

Method & numbers

Model cautions

  • The two methods’ midpoints differ materially — growth assumptions warrant review (over 20%).

A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.

Owner-earnings DCF $98.21 – $128.65 · Greenwald $174.77 – $217.30 (neutral $195.51) · zero-growth base $147.20 · reproduction $21.92

Moat Franchise (moat) · terminal value 37% of present value · owner-earnings yield 3% vs 10Y 4.7%.

Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$115.91 – $147.20 / sh

Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.

Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023

v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex (degraded) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 147% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back).

Buffett owner-earnings value$107.13 – $130.94 / sh

Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).

Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023

v1 simplifications: Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 147% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy; no leverage premium applied (net cash or debt within the no-charge range).

Reproduction value = tangible net assets $-1.03B + capitalized R&D $1.21B（FY 2026, 2024, 2023） = $21.92 / sh. Reproduction value = intangible-inclusive net reproduction (tangible net assets + acquired-intangible reset proxy + capitalized R&D), ÷ diluted shares; tangible net assets alone are negative for this asset-light franchise.

Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value (tangible net assets + capitalized R&D). EPV well above reproduction value signals a moat; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.

Assumes a narrow moat · competitive-advantage period ≈ 10 years.

Growth value: if the moat holds for 10 yr at ROIIC ≈ 8059%, $27.57–$70.10 / sh (neutral $48.30). Conservative, not a forecast.

Window TTM 2026-06-30, FY 2024, 2023 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 17% (Average effective tax rate over 3 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.

Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 0% (history declining → capped at 0) · OE FY TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023 · Discount band: 9.16%–12.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, as of 2026-08-26). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp. Two-method midpoint gap 55%.

Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.

What the price is betting

Today's price pencils in about 26.5% a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 6.0% a year.

The market wants it well ahead of its own track record.

Even when the value band is low-confidence: use this to see what the price assumes — not as a cheapness confirmation.

How to read intrinsic value

SEC 13F · holders

Superinvestors Holding This Security

3 holders · $90.9M combined · this quarter +0 opened / -0 exited

This quarter2 trimmed
Holders 2 → 3 · last 8q

SEC 13F · notes

Written summary

Rockwell Automation Inc (ROK) is held by 3 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $90.9M in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Thomas Gayner, where it makes up 0.6% of the portfolio.

Other notable holders by value include Ray Dalio (0.0% of its book) and Jeremy Grantham (0.0% of its book).

Over the latest quarter, 0 of the tracked filers opened a new position in ROK, 0 added to existing ones, 2 trimmed, and 0 sold out entirely.

Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.

How to read a 13F

SEC 13F · co-ownership

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Also on

Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-14

Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.

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