Trip.Com Group Ltd-Adr
TCOMBelow valueExpectations · modestHeld by 3 superinvestors.
SEC 10-K · fundamentals
Business quality
as of 2025-12-31- Revenue growth
- +22.2%
- Net margin
- 53.4%
- ROE
- 19.5%
- FCF margin
- 21.8%
Valuation · value band
Margin of safety
Zero-growth floor
$30
Central IV
$48
Optimistic top
$59
Trip.Com Group Ltd-Adr (TCOM): A conservative value band $30–$59 / sh (zero-growth floor to growth-capped optimistic top); central read about $48. Today’s price sits below that band (price $45 as of 2026-08-26).
The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.
Revenue growth 5% (lower of historical trend and fundamental cap, capped by moat) · moat 0 yr · discount 10.6% · Zero-growth downside $30
Price as of 2026-08-26 · yahoo · DGS10 4.7% @ 2026-08-26.
Method & numbers
A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.
Owner-earnings DCF $31.35 – $58.68 · Greenwald zero-growth $36.83 · zero-growth base $36.83 · reproduction $29.95
Moat Below asset base · terminal value 49% of present value · owner-earnings yield 7% vs 10Y 4.7%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$17.90 – $21.47 / sh
Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.
Years: 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex (ok) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back).
Buffett owner-earnings value$30.14 – $36.83 / sh
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
Years: 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (ok); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy; no leverage premium applied (net cash or debt within the no-charge range).
Reproduction value = tangible net assets $15.52B + capitalized R&D $5.39B（FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021） = $29.95 / sh. Reproduction value = tangible net assets (equity − goodwill − intangibles) + capitalized R&D (5y straight-line), ÷ diluted shares.
Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
Growth value gated to zero — no moat or ROIIC ≤ WACC, so no growth value is credited.
Window FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 3% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.
Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 5% · OE FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 9.16%–12.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, as of 2026-08-26). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.
What the price is betting
Today's price pencils in about 4.0% a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 29.6% a year.
Below what it has already done.
Roughly, the price needs its historical revenue growth to run about 2 more years to hold up.
SEC 13F · holders
Superinvestors Holding This Security
3 holders · $359.6M combined · this quarter +0 opened / -0 exited
- Value$349.1MWeight (prev→now)1.5% → 1.5% ▲
- Value$8.5MWeight (prev→now)1.5% → 1.3% ▼
- Value$2.0MWeight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.0% ▼
SEC 13F · notes
Written summary
Written summary
Trip.Com Group Ltd-Adr (TCOM) is held by 3 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $359.6M in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Christopher Davis, where it makes up 1.5% of the portfolio.
Other notable holders by value include William von Mueffling (1.3% of its book) and Dodge & Cox (0.0% of its book).
Over the latest quarter, 0 of the tracked filers opened a new position in TCOM, 1 added to existing ones, 1 trimmed, and 0 sold out entirely.
Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.
SEC 13F · co-ownership
Also held by these investors
Investors holding Trip.Com Group Ltd-Adr (TCOM) also commonly hold →
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TCOM's price is below its conservative value band. Browse all undervalued stocks by margin of safety
Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-13
Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.
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