Trip.Com Group Ltd-Adr
TCOM低于价值带预期 · 温和3 位超级投资者持有。
SEC 10-K · 基本面
生意质量
截至 2025-12-31- 营收增速
- +22.2%
- 净利率
- 53.4%
- ROE
- 19.5%
- FCF 利润率
- 21.8%
估值 · 价值带
安全边际
零增长底
$30
中枢 IV
$48
乐观上沿
$59
Trip.Com Group Ltd-Adr(TCOM):保守价值带 $30–$59 / 股(零增长底到增速封顶的乐观上沿),中枢约 $48。今日价格低于这条带(价格 $45 截至 2026-08-26)。
中间是主读数;右侧上沿是同一套保守假设下的乐观档,不是绝对上限。
营收增 5%(历史增长与基本面上限的较小值,受护城河封顶) · 护城河 0 年 · 折现 10.6% · 零增长下行 $30
价格截至 2026-08-26 · yahoo · DGS10 4.6% @ 2026-08-25.
方法与数字
保守内在价值带(零增长底到增速封顶的 DCF)加一道有形资产地板 — 非投资建议、非买卖信号、亦非目标价。
所有者盈利 DCF $31.35 – $58.87 · Greenwald 零增长 $36.83 · 零增长基准 $36.83 · 重置 $29.95
护城河 低于资产基础 · 终值占现值 49% · 所有者盈利收益率 7% 对 10Y 4.6%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$17.90 – $21.47 / 股
Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.
年份:2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 简化:Maintenance capex (ok) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back).
Buffett owner-earnings value$30.14 – $36.83 / 股
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
年份:2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 简化:Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (ok); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy; no leverage premium applied (net cash or debt within the no-charge range).
重置价值 = 有形净资产 $15.52B + 资本化研发 $5.39B(FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021) = $29.95 / 股. Reproduction value = tangible net assets (equity − goodwill − intangibles) + capitalized R&D (5y straight-line), ÷ diluted shares.
护城河读数:Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
增长价值被闸至零 — 无护城河或 ROIIC ≤ WACC,故不计入增长价值。
窗口 FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · 贴现带 9%–11% · 正常化税率 3% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · 股数 diluted.
所有者盈利 DCF:增长 g₁ 5% · OE FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 9.14%–12.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, as of 2026-08-25). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.
价格在赌什么
现价把公司未来几年的 owner-earnings 年增定在 3.9%;公司过去营收年增 29.6%。
低于它自己做到过的。
粗略地说,现价要它按历史营收增速再增长约 2 年,才刚好撑得起。
SEC 13F · 持有人
持有该证券的超级投资者
3 位持有 · 合计 $359.6M · 本季 +0 新建 / -0 清仓
- 市值$349.1M权重(上季→本季)1.5% → 1.5% ▲
- 市值$8.5M权重(上季→本季)1.5% → 1.3% ▼
- 市值$2.0M权重(上季→本季)0.0% → 0.0% ▼
SEC 13F · 说明
文字说明
文字说明
Trip.Com Group Ltd-Adr(TCOM)被 Compounder 追踪的 3 位超级投资者持有,合计申报市值 $359.6M。仓位最大的是 Christopher Davis,占其组合 1.5%。
按市值,其他主要持有人包括 William von Mueffling(占其组合 1.3%) 和 Dodge & Cox(占其组合 0.0%)。
最近一个季度,追踪范围内有 0 位新建 TCOM 仓位,1 位加仓,1 位减仓,0 位清仓。
以上持有人数与市值来自最新的 SEC Form 13F 申报,截至 2026-06-30 季度。来源:SEC EDGAR。13F 仅涵盖美股多头持仓,且可能滞后实际组合最多 45 天,因此这是已披露的多头持有情况,并非完整全貌。
SEC 13F · 共持信号
他们还共同持有
持有 Trip.Com Group Ltd-Adr(TCOM)的这些人还共同重仓 →
TCOM 现价低于保守价值带。 按安全边际浏览全部低估股
数据来源· SEC EDGAR 13F 截至 2026-06-30 · 2026-08-13 提交
仅供教育与信息参考,不构成投资建议。13F 持仓为机构自行申报,可能滞后最多 45 天。
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