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Target Corp

TGTAbove value

Held by 7 superinvestors.

Price$163.47
Holders7
Total value$278.3M

SEC 10-K · fundamentals

Business quality

as of 2026-01-31

Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-05-02 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.

Revenue growth
-1.7%
Net margin
3.5%
ROE
22.9%
FCF margin
2.7%
Revenue $93.56B → $104.78B · 6y
What makes a business high quality

Valuation · value band

Above fair value

$54/ sh · growth-anchored intrinsic value
margin of safety
fair value
above fair value
$163
cheaperpricier

Zero-growth floor

$43

Central IV

$54

Optimistic top

$63

Target Corp (TGT): Two methods value the business — a conservative owner-earnings DCF and a growth-credited Greenwald estimate, $43–$63 / sh. Today’s price sits above both (price $163 as of 2026-08-25).

The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.

  • Recent earnings are below the multi-year average, so the band uses the lower run-rate.

Revenue growth 0% (history declining, capped at zero) · moat 10 yr · discount 11.1% · Zero-growth downside $43

Price as of 2026-08-25 · yahoo · DGS10 4.6% @ 2026-08-25.

Method & numbers

A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.

Owner-earnings DCF $47.70 – $61.88 · Greenwald $62.80 – $62.80 (neutral $62.80) · zero-growth base $62.80 · reproduction $34.59

Moat Franchise (moat) · terminal value 35% of present value · owner-earnings yield 4% vs 10Y 4.6%.

Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$43.09 – $57.91 / sh

Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.

Years: TTM 2026-05-02, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex (ok) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back). Operating margin is below its multi-year average (cyclical/declining): normalized margin capped at the latest year — no peak-margin capitalization (audit #2).

Buffett owner-earnings value$51.86 – $62.80 / sh

Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9.5–11.5% band (9–11% base + 0.5pp leverage premium). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).

Years: TTM 2026-05-02, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

v1 simplifications: Net income is below its multi-year average (cyclical/declining): normalized owner earnings anchored to the latest year — no peak-earnings capitalization (audit #2). Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (ok); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% base band plus a 0.5pp leverage premium (cost of equity rises with leverage — MM Proposition II). Net debt is about 4.0 years of owner earnings, adding 0.5pp of cost-of-equity risk premium.

Reproduction value = tangible net assets $15.76B = $34.59 / sh. Tangible net assets = shareholders' equity − goodwill − intangibles, ÷ diluted shares (no R&D history to capitalize).

Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.

Assumes a narrow moat · competitive-advantage period ≈ 10 years.

Growth value: if the moat holds for 10 yr at ROIIC ≈ -108%, $0.00–$0.00 / sh (neutral $0.00). Conservative, not a forecast.

Window TTM 2026-05-02, FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 21% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.

Baseline 9%–11%, net debt ≈ 4.0 years of owner earnings → +0.5pp cost-of-equity premium → effective 9.5%–11.5%.

Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 0% (history declining → capped at 0) · OE FY TTM 2026-05-02, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 9.62%–12.48% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, each +0.48pp for leverage premium, as of 2026-08-25). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp. Two-method midpoint gap 15%.

Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-05-02 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.

What the price is betting

Today's price pencils in about 21.8% a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 1.6% a year.

The market wants it well ahead of its own track record.

Even when the value band is low-confidence: use this to see what the price assumes — not as a cheapness confirmation.

How to read intrinsic value

SEC 13F · holders

Superinvestors Holding This Security

7 holders · $278.3M combined · this quarter +0 opened / -1 exited

This quarter1 added5 trimmed1 exited
Holders 6 → 6 · last 8q
Exited this quarter (1)
Lee Ainslie

SEC 13F · notes

Written summary

Target Corp (TGT) is held by 7 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $278.3M in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Jim Cullen, where it makes up 1.4% of the portfolio.

Other notable holders by value include Richard Pzena (0.1% of its book), Jeremy Grantham (0.1% of its book) and David Katz (1.2% of its book).

Over the latest quarter, 0 of the tracked filers opened a new position in TGT, 1 added to existing ones, 5 trimmed, and 1 sold out entirely.

Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.

How to read a 13F

SEC 13F · co-ownership

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Also on

Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-14

Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.

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