Target Corp
TGTAbove valueHeld by 6 superinvestors.
SEC 10-K · fundamentals
Business quality
As of 2026-01-31Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-08-01 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
- Revenue growth
- -1.7%
- Net margin
- 3.5%
- ROE
- 22.9%
- FCF margin
- 2.7%
Valuation · value band
Above fair value
Zero-growth floor
$68
Central IV
$75
Optimistic top
$90
Target Corp (TGT): Two methods value the business — a conservative owner-earnings DCF and a growth-credited Greenwald estimate, $68–$90 / sh. Today’s price sits above both (price $154 as of 2026-10-16).
The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.
- Recent earnings are below the multi-year average, so the band uses the lower run-rate.
Revenue growth 0% (history declining, capped at zero) · moat 10 yr · discount 10.8% · Zero-growth downside $68
Price as of 2026-10-16 · yahoo · DGS10 5.1% @ 2026-10-15.
Method & numbers
A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.
Owner-earnings DCF $67.42 – $84.27 · Greenwald $89.89 – $89.89 (neutral $89.89) · zero-growth base $89.89 · reproduction $37.70
Moat Franchise (moat) · terminal value 36% of present value · owner-earnings yield 5% vs 10Y 5.1%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$67.88 – $87.26 / sh
Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.
Years: TTM 2026-08-01, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex (ok) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back). Operating margin is below its multi-year average (cyclical/declining): normalized margin capped at the latest year — no peak-margin capitalization (audit #2).
Buffett owner-earnings value$73.55 – $89.89 / sh
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
Years: TTM 2026-08-01, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Net income is below its multi-year average (cyclical/declining): normalized owner earnings anchored to the latest year — no peak-earnings capitalization (audit #2). Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (ok); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy; no leverage premium applied (net cash or debt within the no-charge range).
Reproduction value = tangible net assets $17.21B = $37.70 / sh. Tangible net assets = shareholders' equity − goodwill − intangibles, ÷ diluted shares (no R&D history to capitalize).
Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
Assumes a narrow moat · competitive-advantage period ≈ 10 years.
Growth value: if the moat holds for 10 yr at ROIIC ≈ -76%, $0.00–$0.00 / sh (neutral $0.00). Conservative, not a forecast.
Window TTM 2026-08-01, FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 21% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.
Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 0% (history declining → capped at 0) · OE FY TTM 2026-08-01, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 9.60%–12.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, as of 2026-10-15). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp. Two-method midpoint gap 18%.
Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-08-01 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
What the price is betting
Today's price pencils in about 14.0% a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 1.6% a year.
The market wants it well ahead of its own track record.
Even when the value band is low-confidence: use this to see what the price assumes — not as a cheapness confirmation.
SEC 13F · holders
Superinvestors Holding This Security
6 holders · $264.5M combined · this quarter +0 opened / -1 exited
- Value$145.8MWeight (prev→now)1.4% → 1.4% ▲
- Value$48.8MWeight (prev→now)0.1% → 0.1% ▼
- Value$47.3MWeight (prev→now)0.1% → 0.1% ▼
- Value$12.5MWeight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.0% ▲
- Value$6.8MWeight (prev→now)1.2% → 0.6% ▼
- Value$3.4MWeight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.0% ▼
SEC 13F · notes
Written summary
Written summary
Target Corp (TGT) is held by 6 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $264.5M in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Jim Cullen, where it makes up 1.4% of the portfolio.
Other notable holders by value include Richard Pzena (0.1% of its book), Jeremy Grantham (0.1% of its book) and Dodge & Cox (0.0% of its book).
In the quarter ended 2026-06-30, 0 of the tracked filers opened a new position in TGT, 1 added to existing ones, 4 trimmed, and 1 sold out entirely.
Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. 1 investor has already filed for the quarter ended 2026-09-30. Their positions in the table reflect those newer filings, and the move counts on this page cover only 2026-06-30 filings. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.
SEC 13F · co-ownership
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Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-14
Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.
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