Hanover Insurance Group Inc/
THGAbove valueExpectations · demandingHeld by 2 superinvestors.
SEC 10-K · fundamentals
Business quality
as of 2025-12-31Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
- Revenue growth
- +5.7%
- Net margin
- 10.0%
- ROE
- 18.5%
- FCF margin
- 17.7%
Valuation · value band
Above fair value
Zero-growth floor
$98
Central IV
$99
Optimistic top
$122
Hanover Insurance Group Inc/ (THG): A conservative value band $98–$122 / sh (zero-growth floor to growth-capped optimistic top); central read about $99. Today’s price sits above that band (price $228 as of 2026-08-26).
The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.
Revenue growth 0% (lower of historical trend and fundamental cap, capped by moat) · moat 0 yr · discount 10.6% · Zero-growth downside $98
Price as of 2026-08-26 · yahoo · DGS10 4.6% @ 2026-08-25.
Method & numbers
A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.
Owner-earnings DCF $85.60 – $115.18 · Greenwald zero-growth $122.43 · zero-growth base $122.43 · reproduction $97.63
Moat Commodity-like · terminal value 38% of present value · owner-earnings yield 4% vs 10Y 4.6%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$97.22 – $122.43 / sh
Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.
Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex unavailable → degraded to the v1 simplification (maintenance capex = D&A, so the depreciation add-back nets to zero). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back).
Buffett owner-earnings value$92.66 – $113.25 / sh
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex or D&A unavailable → degraded to normalized net income (= average net income over the years shown). One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy; no leverage premium applied. Financial issuer (bank/insurer): net debt / owner earnings does not describe a deposit-funded balance sheet, so no leverage premium is applied here; leverage is instead handled by the reliability gate.
Reproduction value = tangible net assets $3.48B = $97.63 / sh. Tangible net assets = shareholders' equity − goodwill − intangibles, ÷ diluted shares (no R&D history to capitalize).
Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
Growth value gated to zero — no moat or ROIIC ≤ WACC, so no growth value is credited.
Window TTM 2026-06-30, FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 20% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.
Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 0% · OE FY TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 9.14%–12.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, as of 2026-08-25). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.
Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
What the price is betting
Today's price pencils in about 16.4% a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 6.4% a year.
The market wants it well ahead of its own track record.
SEC 13F · holders
Superinvestors Holding This Security
2 holders · $66.2M combined · this quarter +0 opened / -0 exited
- Value$60.2MWeight (prev→now)0.4% → 0.5% ▲
- Value$6.0MWeight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.0% ▲
SEC 13F · notes
Written summary
Written summary
Hanover Insurance Group Inc/ (THG) is held by 2 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $66.2M in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Thomas Gayner, where it makes up 0.5% of the portfolio.
Other notable holders by value include Ray Dalio (0.0% of its book).
Over the latest quarter, 0 of the tracked filers opened a new position in THG, 1 added to existing ones, 0 trimmed, and 0 sold out entirely.
Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.
SEC 13F · co-ownership
Also held by these investors
Investors holding Hanover Insurance Group Inc/ (THG) also commonly hold →
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- Microsoft CorpMSFT2 holders
THG's price is not below its conservative value band. See current strike-zone stocks
Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-14
Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.
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