Upwork Inc
UPWKAbove valueHeld by 3 superinvestors.
SEC 10-K · fundamentals
Business quality
as of 2025-12-31- Revenue growth
- +2.4%
- Net margin
- 14.7%
- ROE
- 18.3%
- FCF margin
- 30.8%
Valuation · value band
Above fair value
Zero-growth floor
$7
Central IV
$6
Optimistic top
$8
Upwork Inc (UPWK): A conservative value band $7–$8 / sh (zero-growth floor to growth-capped optimistic top); central read about $6. Today’s price sits above that band (price $9 as of 2026-07-20).
The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.
- Capex doubled in two years, so maintenance is hard to pin down — read the band conservatively.
Revenue growth 5% (lower of historical trend and fundamental cap, capped by moat) · moat 0 yr · discount 10.5% · Zero-growth downside $7
Price as of 2026-07-20 · yahoo · DGS10 4.5% @ 2026-07-17.
Method & numbers
Buybacks over the years shown roughly only offset stock-based-compensation dilution — read them as maintaining the share count, not a net return of capital.
Model cautions
- Capex doubled within two years: maintenance is floored then capped at D&A (OE may look optimistic); Greenwald growth value is closed — growth credit stays in the owner-earnings DCF only.
A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.
Owner-earnings DCF $4.23 – $8.07 · Greenwald zero-growth $7.03 · zero-growth base $7.03 · reproduction $7.03
Moat Below asset base · terminal value 49% of present value · owner-earnings yield 5% vs 10Y 4.5%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$0.61 – $0.85 / sh
Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.
Years: 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex (degraded) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 420% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. Capex doubled within two years (AI-hog rule): flagged; the spike is treated as growth, not maintenance — owner earnings carry extra uncertainty. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back).
Buffett owner-earnings value$4.07 – $4.98 / sh
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
Years: 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 420% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. Capex doubled within two years (AI-hog rule): flagged; the spike is treated as growth, not maintenance — owner earnings carry extra uncertainty. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy; no leverage premium applied (net cash or debt within the no-charge range).
Reproduction value = tangible net assets $443.96M + capitalized R&D $545.03M（FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021） = $7.03 / sh. Reproduction value = tangible net assets (equity − goodwill − intangibles) + capitalized R&D (5y straight-line), ÷ diluted shares.
Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
Growth value gated to zero — capex doubled within two years (AI-hog); growth credit stays in the owner-earnings DCF only.
Window FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 0% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.
Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 5% · OE FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 9.05%–12.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, as of 2026-07-17). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.
What the price is betting
Today's price pencils in about 11.7% a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 15.7% a year.
Below what it has already done.
Roughly, the price needs its historical revenue growth to run about 7 more years to hold up.
Even when the value band is low-confidence: use this to see what the price assumes — not as a cheapness confirmation.
SEC 13F · holders
Superinvestors Holding This Security
3 holders · $66.1M combined · this quarter +0 opened / -2 exited
- Value$65.3MWeight (prev→now)20.8% → 14.2% ▼
- Value$625,608Weight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.0% ▼
- Value$158,843Weight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.0% ▼
SEC 13F · notes
Written summary
Written summary
Upwork Inc (UPWK) is held by 3 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $66.1M in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Quincy Lee, where it makes up 14.2% of the portfolio.
Other notable holders by value include Steven Romick (0.0% of its book) and Jeremy Grantham (0.0% of its book).
Over the latest quarter, 0 of the tracked filers opened a new position in UPWK, 1 added to existing ones, 1 trimmed, and 2 sold out entirely.
Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-03-31. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.
SEC 13F · co-ownership
Also held by these investors
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Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-03-31 · filed 2026-05-15
Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.
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