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Valero Energy Corp

VLOWithin bandExpectations · modest

Held by 3 superinvestors.

Price$348.03
Holders3
Total value$86.3M

SEC 10-K · fundamentals

Business quality

as of 2025-12-31

Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.

Revenue growth
-5.5%
Net margin
1.9%
ROE
9.9%
FCF margin
—
Revenue $64.91B → $122.69B · 6y
What makes a business high quality

Valuation · value band

In fair-value range

$253/ sh · growth-anchored intrinsic value
margin of safety
fair value
above fair value
$348
cheaperpricier

Zero-growth floor

$187

Central IV

$253

Optimistic top

$831

Valero Energy Corp (VLO): Two methods value the business — a conservative owner-earnings DCF and a growth-credited Greenwald estimate, $187–$831 / sh. Today’s price sits inside both (price $348 as of 2026-08-26).

The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.

Revenue growth 2% (lower of historical trend and fundamental cap, capped by moat) · moat 10 yr · discount 10.6% · Zero-growth downside $187

Price as of 2026-08-26 · yahoo · DGS10 4.7% @ 2026-08-26.

Method & numbers

Model cautions

  • The two methods’ midpoints differ materially — growth assumptions warrant review (over 20%).

A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.

Owner-earnings DCF $188.33 – $304.36 · Greenwald $454.62 – $830.65 (neutral $635.68) · zero-growth base $237.06 · reproduction $83.73

Moat Franchise (moat) · terminal value 44% of present value · owner-earnings yield 6% vs 10Y 4.7%.

Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$187.08 – $231.28 / sh

Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.

Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex unavailable → degraded to the v1 simplification (maintenance capex = D&A, so the depreciation add-back nets to zero). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back).

Buffett owner-earnings value$193.96 – $237.06 / sh

Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).

Years: TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex or D&A unavailable → degraded to normalized net income (= average net income over the years shown). One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy; no leverage premium applied (net cash or debt within the no-charge range).

Reproduction value = tangible net assets $24.62B = $83.73 / sh. Tangible net assets = shareholders' equity − goodwill − intangibles, ÷ diluted shares (no R&D history to capitalize).

Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.

Assumes a narrow moat · competitive-advantage period ≈ 10 years.

Growth value: if the moat holds for 10 yr at ROIIC ≈ 116%, $217.56–$593.59 / sh (neutral $398.62). Conservative, not a forecast.

Window TTM 2026-06-30, FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 21% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.

Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 2% · OE FY TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 9.16%–12.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, as of 2026-08-26). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp. Two-method midpoint gap 86%.

Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-30 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.

What the price is betting

Today's price pencils in about 8.2% a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 10.1% a year.

Below what it has already done.

Roughly, the price needs its historical revenue growth to run about 8 more years to hold up.

How to read intrinsic value

SEC 13F · holders

Superinvestors Holding This Security

3 holders · $86.3M combined · this quarter +0 opened / -0 exited

This quarter2 added1 trimmed
Holders 3 → 3 · last 8q

SEC 13F · notes

Written summary

Valero Energy Corp (VLO) is held by 3 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $86.3M in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Ray Dalio, where it makes up 0.3% of the portfolio.

Other notable holders by value include Chris Bloomstran (1.1% of its book) and Jeremy Grantham (0.0% of its book).

Over the latest quarter, 0 of the tracked filers opened a new position in VLO, 2 added to existing ones, 1 trimmed, and 0 sold out entirely.

Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.

How to read a 13F

SEC 13F · co-ownership

Also held by these investors

Investors holding Valero Energy Corp (VLO) also commonly hold →

VLO's price is not below its conservative value band. See current strike-zone stocks

Also on

Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-14

Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.

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