Devon Energy Corp
DVN高于价值预期 · 苛刻9 位超级投资者持有。
SEC 10-K · 基本面
生意质量
截至 2025-12-31估值口径：截至 2026-06-30 的滚动十二个月（最新 10-K 叠加未审计 10-Q）。
- 营收增速
- +5.4%
- 净利率
- 15.7%
- ROE
- 17.0%
- FCF 利润率
- 18.6%
估值 · 价值带
高于合理价值
零增长底
$44
中枢 IV
$9
乐观上沿
$44
Devon Energy Corp（DVN）：保守价值带 $44 / 股（零增长底到增速封顶的乐观上沿），中枢约 $9。今日价格高于这条带（价格 $47 截至 2026-08-25）。
中间是主读数；右侧上沿是同一套保守假设下的乐观档，不是绝对上限。
营收增 3%（历史增长与基本面上限的较小值，受护城河封顶） · 护城河 0 年 · 折现 14.6% · 零增长下行 $44
价格截至 2026-08-25 · yahoo · DGS10 4.7% @ 2026-08-24.
方法与数字
Operating income is not reported separately (e.g. banks, insurers, and some diversified issuers), so earnings power is shown via the owner-earnings lens only; the unlevered NOPAT lens does not apply.
保守内在价值带（零增长底到增速封顶的 DCF）加一道有形资产地板 — 非投资建议、非买卖信号、亦非目标价。
所有者盈利 DCF $6.69 – $9.70 · Greenwald 零增长 $43.61 · 零增长基准 $43.61 · 重置 $43.61
护城河 低于资产基础 · 终值占现值 33% · 所有者盈利收益率 2% 对 10Y 4.7%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)
Operating income is not reported separately (e.g. banks, insurers, and some diversified issuers), so earnings power is shown via the owner-earnings lens only; the unlevered NOPAT lens does not apply.
Normalized NOPAT from operating margin — not applicable when operating income is not reported separately. Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge (+ cash − total debt) — not applied (lens not assessable).
年份：TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
Buffett owner-earnings value$6.64 – $7.66 / 股
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 13.0–15.0% band (9–11% base + 4.0pp leverage premium). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
年份：TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 简化：Net income is below its multi-year average (cyclical/declining): normalized owner earnings anchored to the latest year — no peak-earnings capitalization (audit #2). Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (ok); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% base band plus a 4.0pp leverage premium (cost of equity rises with leverage — MM Proposition II). Net debt is about 12.7 years of owner earnings, adding 4.0pp of cost-of-equity risk premium.
重置价值 = 有形净资产 $40.99B = $43.61 / 股. Tangible net assets = shareholders' equity − goodwill − intangibles, ÷ diluted shares (no R&D history to capitalize).
护城河读数：Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
增长价值被闸至零 — 无护城河或 ROIIC ≤ WACC，故不计入增长价值。
窗口 TTM 2026-06-30, FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · 贴现带 9%–11% · 正常化税率 17% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · 股数 diluted.
基线 9%–11%，净债务约 12.7 年所有者盈利 → 加 4.0 个百分点风险溢价 → 实际 13.0%–15.0%。
所有者盈利 DCF：增长 g₁ 3% · OE FY TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 13.20%–16.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, each +4.00pp for leverage premium, as of 2026-08-24). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.
估值口径：截至 2026-06-30 的滚动十二个月（最新 10-K 叠加未审计 10-Q）。
价格在赌什么
现价把公司未来几年的 owner-earnings 年增定在 高于 30.0%（已超出常规区间）；公司过去营收年增 20.6%。
市场要它明显快过自己一贯的水平。
粗略地说，现价要它按历史营收增速再增长约 18 年，才刚好撑得起。
SEC 13F · 持有人
持有该证券的超级投资者
9 位持有 · 合计 $1.61B · 本季 +4 新建 / -1 清仓
- 市值$1.05B权重（上季→本季）新建 · 4.5%
- 市值$312.3M权重（上季→本季）3.6% → 3.0% ▼
- 市值$174.3M权重（上季→本季）新建 · 3.0%
- 市值$30.4M权重（上季→本季）新建 · 0.1%
- 市值$21.1M权重（上季→本季）0.3% → 0.3% ▼
- 市值$18.4M权重（上季→本季）0.1% → 0.0% ▼
- 市值$2.6M权重（上季→本季）0.3% → 0.5% ▲
- 市值$1.4M权重（上季→本季）0.1% → 0.1% ▲
- 市值$411,919权重（上季→本季）新建 · 0.0%
SEC 13F · 说明
文字说明
文字说明
Devon Energy Corp（DVN）被 Compounder 追踪的 9 位超级投资者持有，合计申报市值 $1.61B。仓位最大的是 Christopher Davis，占其组合 4.5%。
按市值，其他主要持有人包括 John Armitage（占其组合 3.0%），Fred Martin（占其组合 3.0%） 和 Ray Dalio（占其组合 0.1%）。
最近一个季度，追踪范围内有 4 位新建 DVN 仓位，4 位加仓，1 位减仓，1 位清仓。
以上持有人数与市值来自最新的 SEC Form 13F 申报，截至 2026-06-30 季度。来源：SEC EDGAR。13F 仅涵盖美股多头持仓，且可能滞后实际组合最多 45 天，因此这是已披露的多头持有情况，并非完整全貌。
SEC 13F · 共持信号
他们还共同持有
持有 Devon Energy Corp（DVN）的这些人还共同重仓 →
DVN 现价不低于保守价值带。 看当前击球区股票
数据来源· SEC EDGAR 13F 截至 2026-06-30 · 2026-08-14 提交
仅供教育与信息参考，不构成投资建议。13F 持仓为机构自行申报，可能滞后最多 45 天。
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