Kinsale Capital Group Inc
KNSL带内3 位超级投资者持有。
SEC 10-K · 基本面
生意质量
截至 2025-12-31- 营收增速
- +18.0%
- 净利率
- 26.9%
- ROE
- 25.7%
- FCF 利润率
- 52.8%
估值 · 价值带
处于合理价值区间
零增长底
$157
中枢 IV
$278
乐观上沿
$344
Kinsale Capital Group Inc（KNSL）：保守价值带 $157–$344 / 股（零增长底到增速封顶的乐观上沿），中枢约 $278。今日价格落在这条带内（价格 $326 截至 2026-07-22）。
中间是主读数；右侧上沿是同一套保守假设下的乐观档，不是绝对上限。
- 资本开支两年翻倍，维持性投入难分清，价值带按保守口径读。
营收增 7%（历史增长与基本面上限的较小值，受护城河封顶） · 护城河 10 年 · 折现 10.6% · 零增长下行 $157
价格截至 2026-07-22 · yahoo · DGS10 4.6% @ 2026-07-21.
方法与数字
Operating income is not reported separately (e.g. banks, insurers, and some diversified issuers), so earnings power is shown via the owner-earnings lens only; the unlevered NOPAT lens does not apply.
模型警示
- 资本开支两年翻倍：维持性 CapEx 下限后按 D&A 封顶（OE 可能偏乐观）；Greenwald 增长价值已关闭 — 成长只留在所有者盈利 DCF。
- 增长率几乎等于贴现率 — 估计对假设高度敏感。
保守内在价值带（零增长底到增速封顶的 DCF）加一道有形资产地板 — 非投资建议、非买卖信号、亦非目标价。
所有者盈利 DCF $171.71 – $343.59 · Greenwald 零增长 $191.80 · 零增长基准 $191.80 · 重置 $84.25
护城河 特许经营（护城河） · 终值占现值 50% · 所有者盈利收益率 5% 对 10Y 4.6%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)
Operating income is not reported separately (e.g. banks, insurers, and some diversified issuers), so earnings power is shown via the owner-earnings lens only; the unlevered NOPAT lens does not apply.
Normalized NOPAT from operating margin — not applicable when operating income is not reported separately. Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge (+ cash − total debt) — not applied (lens not assessable).
年份：2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
Buffett owner-earnings value$156.93 – $191.80 / 股
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
年份：2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 简化：Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 368% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. Capex doubled within two years (AI-hog rule): flagged; the spike is treated as growth, not maintenance — owner earnings carry extra uncertainty. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy; no leverage premium applied. Financial issuer (bank/insurer): net debt / owner earnings does not describe a deposit-funded balance sheet, so no leverage premium is applied here; leverage is instead handled by the reliability gate.
重置价值 = 有形净资产 $1.96B = $84.25 / 股. Total book value (shareholders' equity ÷ diluted shares); intangibles not separated — goodwill/intangibles unavailable this period.
护城河读数：Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value (tangible net assets + capitalized R&D). EPV well above reproduction value signals a moat; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. Dual reproduction test unavailable (intangibles not separated). A directional reading, not a verdict.
假设一般护城河 · 竞争优势期约 10 年。
增长价值被闸至零 — 资本开支两年翻倍（AI-hog），成长只留在所有者盈利 DCF，避免双重计入。
窗口 FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · 贴现带 9%–11% · 正常化税率 20% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · 股数 diluted.
所有者盈利 DCF：增长 g₁ 7% · OE FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 9.13%–12.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, as of 2026-07-21). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.
价格在赌什么
现价把公司未来几年的 owner-earnings 年增定在 10.0%；公司过去营收年增 33.7%。
低于它自己做到过的。
粗略地说，现价要它按历史营收增速再增长约 3 年，才刚好撑得起。
价值带信心不足时仍可对照：这里只说明市场在赌多快，不把它当成「确认便宜」。
SEC 13F · 持有人
持有该证券的超级投资者
3 位持有 · 合计 $225.2M · 本季 +1 新建 / -1 清仓
- 市值$140.5M权重（上季→本季）4.8% → 3.6% ▼
- 市值$74.8M权重（上季→本季）2.8% → 2.7% ▼
- 市值$9.9M权重（上季→本季）新建 · 3.6%
SEC 13F · 说明
文字说明
文字说明
Kinsale Capital Group Inc（KNSL）被 Compounder 追踪的 3 位超级投资者持有，合计申报市值 $225.2M。仓位最大的是 Andrew Brenton，占其组合 3.6%。
按市值，其他主要持有人包括 François Rochon（占其组合 2.7%） 和 Paul Lountzis（占其组合 3.6%）。
最近一个季度，追踪范围内有 1 位新建 KNSL 仓位，2 位加仓，0 位减仓，1 位清仓。
以上持有人数与市值来自最新的 SEC Form 13F 申报，截至 2026-03-31 季度。来源：SEC EDGAR。13F 仅涵盖美股多头持仓，且可能滞后实际组合最多 45 天，因此这是已披露的多头持有情况，并非完整全貌。
SEC 13F · 共持信号
他们还共同持有
持有 Kinsale Capital Group Inc（KNSL）的这些人还共同重仓 →
看哪些股票相对价值带便宜。 浏览全部可估值股票
数据来源· SEC EDGAR 13F 截至 2026-03-31 · 2026-05-15 提交
仅供教育与信息参考，不构成投资建议。13F 持仓为机构自行申报，可能滞后最多 45 天。
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