Meta Platforms Inc-Class A
META高于价值预期 · 温和34 位超级投资者持有。
SEC 10-K · 基本面
生意质量
截至 2025-12-31估值口径：截至 2026-06-30 的滚动十二个月（最新 10-K 叠加未审计 10-Q）。
- 营收增速
- +22.2%
- 净利率
- 30.1%
- ROE
- 27.8%
- FCF 利润率
- 22.9%
估值 · 价值带
高于合理价值
零增长底
$200
中枢 IV
$524
乐观上沿
$632
Meta Platforms Inc-Class A（META）：保守价值带 $200–$632 / 股（零增长底到增速封顶的乐观上沿），中枢约 $524。今日价格高于这条带（价格 $709 截至 2026-10-16）。
中间是主读数；右侧上沿是同一套保守假设下的乐观档，不是绝对上限。
营收增 12%（历史增长与基本面上限的较小值，受护城河封顶） · 护城河 20 年 · 折现 10.8% · 零增长下行 $200
价格截至 2026-10-16 · yahoo · DGS10 5.1% @ 2026-10-15.
方法与数字
模型警示
- 资本开支两年翻倍：维持性 CapEx 下限后按 D&A 封顶（OE 可能偏乐观）；Greenwald 增长价值已关闭 — 成长只留在所有者盈利 DCF。
- 增长率几乎等于贴现率 — 估计对假设高度敏感。
保守内在价值带（零增长底到增速封顶的 DCF）加一道有形资产地板 — 非投资建议、非买卖信号、亦非目标价。
所有者盈利 DCF $246.28 – $632.27 · Greenwald 零增长 $265.78 · 零增长基准 $265.78 · 重置 $138.17
护城河 特许经营（护城河） · 终值占现值 27% · 所有者盈利收益率 3% 对 10Y 5.1%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$212.62 – $265.78 / 股
Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.
年份：TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 简化：Maintenance capex (degraded) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Only one maintenance-capex method available; estimate is degraded. Capex doubled within two years (AI-hog rule): flagged; the spike is treated as growth, not maintenance — owner earnings carry extra uncertainty. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back).
Buffett owner-earnings value$200.45 – $245.00 / 股
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
年份：TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 简化：Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Only one maintenance-capex method available; estimate is degraded. Capex doubled within two years (AI-hog rule): flagged; the spike is treated as growth, not maintenance — owner earnings carry extra uncertainty. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy; no leverage premium applied (net cash or debt within the no-charge range).
重置价值 = 有形净资产 $234.12B + 资本化研发 $120.42B（FY 2026, 2024, 2023, 2022） = $138.17 / 股. Reproduction value = tangible net assets (equity − goodwill − intangibles) + capitalized R&D (5y straight-line), ÷ diluted shares.
护城河读数：Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
假设宽护城河 · 竞争优势期约 20 年（盈利未衰退、ROIC 历史稳定）。
增长价值被闸至零 — 资本开支两年翻倍（AI-hog），成长只留在所有者盈利 DCF，避免双重计入。
窗口 TTM 2026-06-30, FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · 贴现带 9%–11% · 正常化税率 18% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · 股数 diluted.
所有者盈利 DCF：增长 g₁ 12% · OE FY TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 9.60%–12.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, as of 2026-10-15). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.
估值口径：截至 2026-06-30 的滚动十二个月（最新 10-K 叠加未审计 10-Q）。
价格在赌什么
现价把公司未来几年的 owner-earnings 年增定在 15.3%；公司过去营收年增 16.6%。
低于它自己做到过的。
粗略地说，现价要它按历史营收增速再增长约 12 年，才刚好撑得起。
SEC 13F · 持有人
持有该证券的超级投资者
34 位持有 · 合计 $15.87B · 本季 +4 新建 / -1 清仓
- 市值$3.66B权重（上季→本季）1.6% → 1.9% ▲
- 市值$1.94B权重（上季→本季）4.5% → 4.4% ▼
- 市值$1.80B权重（上季→本季）11.1% → 9.3% ▼
- 市值$1.59B权重（上季→本季）7.7% → 6.6% ▼
- 市值$1.05B权重（上季→本季）1.7% → 3.0% ▲
- 市值$928.7M权重（上季→本季）4.5% → 4.0% ▼
- 市值$726.5M权重（上季→本季）2.5% → 2.2% ▼
- 市值$592.5M权重（上季→本季）5.9% → 4.3% ▼
- 市值$515.8M权重（上季→本季）9.2% → 9.2% ▼
- 市值$430.4M权重（上季→本季）新建 · 3.9%
展开全部 34 位持有人 ▸收起 ▾
- 市值$383.0M权重（上季→本季）5.5% → 4.7% ▼
- 市值$380.2M权重（上季→本季）4.2% → 5.1% ▲
- 市值$207.6M权重（上季→本季）17.4% → 15.6% ▼
- 市值$185.6M权重（上季→本季）1.9% → 1.6% ▼
- 市值$183.2M权重（上季→本季）4.0% → 3.3% ▼
- 市值$170.6M权重（上季→本季）6.4% → 5.7% ▼
- 市值$161.3M权重（上季→本季）新建 · 6.2%
- 市值$131.9M权重（上季→本季）1.2% → 1.0% ▼
- 市值$113.5M权重（上季→本季）1.0% → 1.2% ▲
- 市值$112.6M权重（上季→本季）7.4% → 7.2% ▼
- 市值$96.2M权重（上季→本季）3.6% → 3.2% ▼
- 市值$86.9M权重（上季→本季）1.9% → 1.4% ▼
- 市值$78.3M权重（上季→本季）21.8% → 20.4% ▼
- 市值$76.7M权重（上季→本季）新建 · 4.1%
- 市值$66.3M权重（上季→本季）7.0% → 5.9% ▼
- 市值$62.0M权重（上季→本季）0.7% → 0.3% ▼
- 市值$58.0M权重（上季→本季）4.2% → 4.0% ▼
- 市值$43.1M权重（上季→本季）7.8% → 8.9% ▲
- 市值$28.0M权重（上季→本季）1.7% → 2.3% ▲
- 市值$3.6M权重（上季→本季）新建 · 0.9%
- 市值$3.3M权重（上季→本季）0.8% → 0.7% ▼
- 市值$2.6M权重（上季→本季）0.0% → 0.0% ▲
- 市值$419,651权重（上季→本季）0.2% → 0.1% ▼
- 市值$210,107权重（上季→本季）0.0% → 0.0% ▼
SEC 13F · 说明
文字说明
文字说明
Meta Platforms Inc-Class A（META）被 Compounder 追踪的 34 位超级投资者持有，合计申报市值 $15.87B。仓位最大的是 Dodge & Cox，占其组合 1.9%。
按市值，其他主要持有人包括 Jeremy Grantham（占其组合 4.4%），Bill Ackman（占其组合 9.3%） 和 Chase Coleman（占其组合 6.6%）。
截至 2026-06-30 的这一季，追踪范围内有 4 位新建 META 仓位，9 位加仓，16 位减仓，1 位清仓。
以上持有人数与市值来自最新的 SEC Form 13F 申报，截至 2026-06-30 季度。另有 1 位投资人已提前提交截至 2026-09-30 的申报，表中他们的持仓按这份更新的申报列出；本页的动向统计只计 2026-06-30 季度的申报。来源：SEC EDGAR。13F 仅涵盖美股多头持仓，且可能滞后实际组合最多 45 天，因此这是已披露的多头持有情况，并非完整全貌。
SEC 13F · 共持信号
他们还共同持有
持有 Meta Platforms Inc-Class A（META）的这些人还共同重仓 →
META 现价不低于保守价值带。 看当前击球区股票
数据来源· SEC EDGAR 13F 截至 2026-06-30 · 2026-08-14 提交
仅供教育与信息参考，不构成投资建议。13F 持仓为机构自行申报，可能滞后最多 45 天。
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