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Compounder

Maximus Inc

1 位超级投资者持有 Maximus Inc(MMS)。

仅供教育与信息参考,不构成投资建议。13F 持仓为机构自行申报,可能滞后最多 45 天。

估值 · 地基层

估值 · 两种方法

盈利能力与资产地基

两种内在价值方法加一道有形资产地板 — 确定性计算,非价格预测、非推荐。

高于合理价值当前几乎没有安全边际。
安全边际
合理价值
高于合理价值
$56
更便宜$39 – $56 价值估计更贵

Maximus Inc(MMS):一项保守的盈利能力估计,$39–$56 / 股;今日价格高于它(价格 $56 截至 2026-07-02)。

模型警示

  • 所有者盈利收益率与 10 年期美债大幅背离(超过 300 个基点)。

源自两种估值方法的一项观察 — 非投资建议、非买卖信号、亦非目标价。

价格截至 2026-07-02 · yahoo · DGS10 4.5% @ 2026-07-01.

方法与数字

所有者盈利 DCF $39.46 – $56.38 · Greenwald 零增长 $49.63 · 零增长基准 $49.63

护城河 无法评估 · 终值占现值 38% · 所有者盈利收益率 8% 对 10Y 4.5%.

Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$36.81 – $49.26 / 股

Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.

年份:2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

v1 简化:Maintenance capex (degraded) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 142% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back).

Buffett owner-earnings value$40.60 – $49.63 / 股

Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).

年份:2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

v1 简化:Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the same 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy (theoretically the cost of equity is higher; v2 simplification, v3 to refine).

资产地板:Tangible net assets = shareholders' equity − goodwill − intangibles, ÷ diluted shares (no R&D history to capitalize).

护城河读数:Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value (tangible net assets + capitalized R&D). EPV well above reproduction value signals a moat; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.

增长价值被闸至零 — 无护城河 / ROIIC ≤ WACC,故不计入任何增长价值。

窗口 FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · 贴现带 9%11% · 正常化税率 21% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · 股数 diluted.

所有者盈利 DCF:增长 g₁ 2% · OE FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 8.98%–12.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, as of 2026-07-01). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.

持仓 · 13F 共识

谁在买

跨基金聚合的机构持仓——共识强度与本季动向,描述动作、不下判决。

1 位超级投资者持有 · 合计 $776,636

本季动向1 家减仓

头号重仓 Ray Dalio

1 位超级投资者持有 Maximus Inc(MMS);本季 1 家减仓(截至 2026-03-31)。

13F 持仓为机构自行申报,可能滞后最多 45 天;仅供信息参考,非买卖建议。

下一步 · 值不值

MMS 现价不低于保守价值带。

看看现在哪些股票落在击球区

持有该证券的超级投资者

  • 市值$776,636权重(上季→本季)0.0% 0.0%

持有概览

Maximus Inc(MMS)被 Compounder 追踪的 1 位超级投资者持有,合计申报市值 $776,636。仓位最大的是 Ray Dalio,占其组合 0.0%。

最近一个季度,追踪范围内有 0 位新建 MMS 仓位,0 位加仓,1 位减仓,0 位清仓。

以上持有人数与市值来自最新的 SEC Form 13F 申报,截至 2026-03-31 季度。来源:SEC EDGAR。13F 仅涵盖美股多头持仓,且可能滞后实际组合最多 45 天,因此这是已披露的多头持有情况,并非完整全貌。

持有人趋势

近 7 季持有该证券的超级投资者:1 → 1 家。

早期季度持有人数可能因数据回填偏低,斜率仅供参考。

关键事实与外部链接

代码
MMS
合计市值
$776,636
最大持有人
Ray Dalio
外部数据

数据来源· SEC EDGAR 13F 截至 2026-03-31 · 2026-05-15 提交

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