Amazon.Com Inc
AMZN高于价值39 位超级投资者持有。
SEC 10-K · 基本面
生意质量
截至 2025-12-31估值口径：截至 2026-03-31 的滚动十二个月（最新 10-K 叠加未审计 10-Q）。
- 营收增速
- +12.4%
- 净利率
- 10.8%
- ROE
- 18.9%
- FCF 利润率
- 1.1%
估值 · 价值带
高于合理价值
零增长底
$38
中枢 IV
$73
乐观上沿
$92
Amazon.Com Inc（AMZN）：保守价值带 $38–$92 / 股（零增长底到增速封顶的乐观上沿），中枢约 $73。今日价格高于这条带（价格 $272 截至 2026-07-31）。
中间是主读数；右侧上沿是同一套保守假设下的乐观档，不是绝对上限。
- 资本开支两年翻倍，维持性投入难分清，价值带按保守口径读。
营收增 12%（历史增长与基本面上限的较小值，受护城河封顶） · 护城河 20 年 · 折现 10.6% · 零增长下行 $38
价格截至 2026-07-31 · yahoo · DGS10 4.7% @ 2026-07-29.
方法与数字
所示年度的回购大体只抵消了股权激励（SBC）造成的稀释 — 应视为维持股本、而非净额回馈股东。
模型警示
- 资本开支两年翻倍：维持性 CapEx 下限后按 D&A 封顶（OE 可能偏乐观）；Greenwald 增长价值已关闭 — 成长只留在所有者盈利 DCF。
- 所有者盈利收益率与 10 年期美债大幅背离（超过 300 个基点）。
- 增长率几乎等于贴现率 — 估计对假设高度敏感。
保守内在价值带（零增长底到增速封顶的 DCF）加一道有形资产地板 — 非投资建议、非买卖信号、亦非目标价。
所有者盈利 DCF $32.92 – $92.09 · Greenwald 零增长 $41.72 · 零增长基准 $41.72 · 重置 $37.64
护城河 特许经营（凭盈利增长） · 终值占现值 28% · 所有者盈利收益率 1% 对 10Y 4.7%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$33.80 – $41.72 / 股
Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.
年份：TTM 2026-03-31, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 简化：Maintenance capex (degraded) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 98% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. Capex doubled within two years (AI-hog rule): flagged; the spike is treated as growth, not maintenance — owner earnings carry extra uncertainty. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back).
Buffett owner-earnings value$26.68 – $32.60 / 股
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
年份：TTM 2026-03-31, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 简化：Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 98% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. Capex doubled within two years (AI-hog rule): flagged; the spike is treated as growth, not maintenance — owner earnings carry extra uncertainty. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy; no leverage premium applied (net cash or debt within the no-charge range).
重置价值 = 有形净资产 $409.27B = $37.64 / 股. Tangible net assets = shareholders' equity − goodwill − intangibles, ÷ diluted shares (no R&D history to capitalize).
护城河读数：Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
假设宽护城河 · 竞争优势期约 20 年（盈利未衰退、ROIC 历史稳定）。
增长价值被闸至零 — 资本开支两年翻倍（AI-hog），成长只留在所有者盈利 DCF，避免双重计入。
窗口 TTM 2026-03-31, FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · 贴现带 9%–11% · 正常化税率 21% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · 股数 diluted.
所有者盈利 DCF：增长 g₁ 12% · OE FY TTM 2026-03-31, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 9.17%–12.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, as of 2026-07-29). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.
估值口径：截至 2026-03-31 的滚动十二个月（最新 10-K 叠加未审计 10-Q）。
价格在赌什么
现价把公司未来几年的 owner-earnings 年增定在 27.6%；公司过去营收年增 12.5%。
市场要它明显快过自己一贯的水平。
价值带信心不足时仍可对照：这里只说明市场在赌多快，不把它当成「确认便宜」。
SEC 13F · 持有人
持有该证券的超级投资者
39 位持有 · 合计 $23.10B · 本季 +2 新建 / -3 清仓
- 市值$3.15B权重（上季→本季）1.9% → 1.7% ▼
- 市值$2.45B权重（上季→本季）8.6% → 8.2% ▼
- 市值$2.39B权重（上季→本季）14.3% → 17.4% ▲
- 市值$2.08B权重（上季→本季）7.8% → 9.1% ▲
- 市值$1.58B权重（上季→本季）33.1% → 38.2% ▲
- 市值$1.30B权重（上季→本季）3.7% → 3.3% ▼
- 市值$991.5M权重（上季→本季）1.3% → 1.3% ▲
- 市值$914.0M权重（上季→本季）1.6% → 4.1% ▲
- 市值$899.7M权重（上季→本季）7.3% → 15.2% ▲
- 市值$851.7M权重（上季→本季）5.5% → 8.2% ▲
展开全部 39 位持有人 ▸收起 ▾
- 市值$811.6M权重（上季→本季）8.5% → 5.6% ▼
- 市值$713.4M权重（上季→本季）3.6% → 3.3% ▼
- 市值$649.5M权重（上季→本季）9.3% → 12.7% ▲
- 市值$600.8M权重（上季→本季）11.2% → 10.5% ▼
- 市值$482.8M权重（上季→本季）5.9% → 5.6% ▼
- 市值$422.9M权重（上季→本季）3.7% → 3.5% ▼
- 市值$404.0M权重（上季→本季）6.9% → 19.4% ▲
- 市值$386.3M权重（上季→本季）13.2% → 14.6% ▲
- 市值$360.6M权重（上季→本季）6.1% → 7.1% ▲
- 市值$332.4M权重（上季→本季）7.5% → 8.8% ▲
- 市值$295.0M权重（上季→本季）4.3% → 4.1% ▼
- 市值$249.0M权重（上季→本季）1.9% → 0.7% ▼
- 市值$136.3M权重（上季→本季）5.0% → 5.1% ▲
- 市值$129.4M权重（上季→本季）9.7% → 10.0% ▲
- 市值$99.7M权重（上季→本季）11.5% → 10.4% ▼
- 市值$78.9M权重（上季→本季）新建 · 2.6%
- 市值$65.1M权重（上季→本季）21.3% → 18.9% ▼
- 市值$55.6M权重（上季→本季）13.0% → 14.9% ▲
- 市值$46.3M权重（上季→本季）3.0% → 3.2% ▲
- 市值$42.5M权重（上季→本季）0.0% → 2.6% ▲
- 市值$38.8M权重（上季→本季）5.1% → 14.5% ▲
- 市值$35.3M权重（上季→本季）新建 · 1.2%
- 市值$31.9M权重（上季→本季）2.6% → 2.6% ▲
- 市值$20.8M权重（上季→本季）2.5% → 4.3% ▲
- 市值$9.5M权重（上季→本季）4.0% → 0.3% ▼
- 市值$3.7M权重（上季→本季）0.6% → 0.8% ▲
- 市值$376,344权重（上季→本季）0.1% → 0.1% ▲
- 市值$291,578权重（上季→本季）0.0% → 0.0% ▼
- 市值$216,601权重（上季→本季）0.0% → 0.0% ▼
SEC 13F · 说明
文字说明
文字说明
Amazon.Com Inc（AMZN）被 Compounder 追踪的 39 位超级投资者持有，合计申报市值 $23.10B。仓位最大的是 Dodge & Cox，占其组合 1.7%。
按市值，其他主要持有人包括 Ravenel Boykin Curry（占其组合 8.2%），Bill Ackman（占其组合 17.4%） 和 Chase Coleman（占其组合 9.1%）。
最近一个季度，追踪范围内有 2 位新建 AMZN 仓位，15 位加仓，15 位减仓，3 位清仓。
以上持有人数与市值来自最新的 SEC Form 13F 申报，截至 2026-06-30 季度。来源：SEC EDGAR。13F 仅涵盖美股多头持仓，且可能滞后实际组合最多 45 天，因此这是已披露的多头持有情况，并非完整全貌。
SEC 13F · 共持信号
他们还共同持有
持有 Amazon.Com Inc（AMZN）的这些人还共同重仓 →
看哪些股票相对价值带便宜。 浏览全部可估值股票
数据来源· SEC EDGAR 13F 截至 2026-06-30 · 2026-07-21 提交
仅供教育与信息参考，不构成投资建议。13F 持仓为机构自行申报，可能滞后最多 45 天。
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