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Pegasystems Inc

PEGA高于价值预期 · 苛刻

2 位超级投资者持有。

现价$31.69
持有人数2
合计市值$201.9M

SEC 10-K · 基本面

生意质量

截至 2025-12-31
营收增速
+16.6%
净利率
22.5%
ROE
50.0%
FCF 利润率
28.1%
营收 $1.02B → $1.75B · 近 6 年
什么样的生意算优质

估值 · 价值带

高于合理价值

$5/ 股 · 含增长中枢内在价值
安全边际
合理价值
高于合理价值
$32
更便宜更贵

零增长底

$9

中枢 IV

$5

乐观上沿

$9

Pegasystems Inc(PEGA):保守价值带 $9 / 股(零增长底到增速封顶的乐观上沿),中枢约 $5。今日价格高于这条带(价格 $32 截至 2026-07-20)。

中间是主读数;右侧上沿是同一套保守假设下的乐观档,不是绝对上限。

营收增 5%(历史增长与基本面上限的较小值,受护城河封顶) · 护城河 0 年 · 折现 10.5% · 零增长下行 $9

价格截至 2026-07-20 · yahoo · DGS10 4.6% @ 2026-07-20.

方法与数字

所示年度的回购大体只抵消了股权激励(SBC)造成的稀释 — 应视为维持股本、而非净额回馈股东。

模型警示

  • 所有者盈利收益率与 10 年期美债大幅背离(超过 300 个基点)。

保守内在价值带(零增长底到增速封顶的 DCF)加一道有形资产地板 — 非投资建议、非买卖信号、亦非目标价。

所有者盈利 DCF $3.08 – $5.83 · Greenwald 零增长 $8.67 · 零增长基准 $8.67 · 重置 $8.67

护城河 低于资产基础 · 终值占现值 49% · 所有者盈利收益率 1% 对 10Y 4.6%.

Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$3.66 – $4.22 / 股

Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.

年份:2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

v1 简化:Maintenance capex (degraded) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 121% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back).

Buffett owner-earnings value$2.97 – $3.62 / 股

Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).

年份:2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

v1 简化:Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 121% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy; no leverage premium applied (net cash or debt within the no-charge range).

重置价值 = 有形净资产 $704.67M + 资本化研发 $898.31M(FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021) = $8.67 / 股. Reproduction value = tangible net assets (equity − goodwill − intangibles) + capitalized R&D (5y straight-line), ÷ diluted shares.

护城河读数:Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.

增长价值被闸至零 — 无护城河或 ROIIC ≤ WACC,故不计入增长价值。

窗口 FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · 贴现带 9%11% · 正常化税率 0% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · 股数 diluted.

所有者盈利 DCF:增长 g₁ 5% · OE FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 9.10%–12.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, as of 2026-07-20). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.

价格在赌什么

现价把公司未来几年的 owner-earnings 年增定在 高于 30.0%(已超出常规区间);公司过去营收年增 10.3%

市场要它明显快过自己一贯的水平。

内在价值怎么读

SEC 13F · 持有人

持有该证券的超级投资者

2 位持有 · 合计 $201.9M · 本季 +0 新建 / -0 清仓

本季动向1 家加仓
持有人 2 → 1 · 近 8 季
  • 市值$194.4M权重(上季→本季)18.6% 17.9%
  • 市值$7.5M权重(上季→本季)0.0% 0.0%

SEC 13F · 说明

文字说明

Pegasystems Inc(PEGA)被 Compounder 追踪的 2 位超级投资者持有,合计申报市值 $201.9M。仓位最大的是 Brian Bares,占其组合 17.9%。

按市值,其他主要持有人包括 Ray Dalio(占其组合 0.0%)

最近一个季度,追踪范围内有 0 位新建 PEGA 仓位,1 位加仓,0 位减仓,0 位清仓。

以上持有人数与市值来自最新的 SEC Form 13F 申报,截至 2026-03-31 季度。来源:SEC EDGAR。13F 仅涵盖美股多头持仓,且可能滞后实际组合最多 45 天,因此这是已披露的多头持有情况,并非完整全貌。

如何读懂 13F

SEC 13F · 共持信号

他们还共同持有

持有 Pegasystems Inc(PEGA)的这些人还共同重仓 →

PEGA 现价不低于保守价值带。 看当前击球区股票

也可在

数据来源· SEC EDGAR 13F 截至 2026-03-31 · 2026-05-15 提交

仅供教育与信息参考,不构成投资建议。13F 持仓为机构自行申报,可能滞后最多 45 天。

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