Advanced Drainage Systems In
WMS高于价值预期 · 苛刻3 位超级投资者持有。
SEC 10-K · 基本面
生意质量
截至 2026-03-31- 营收增速
- +5.0%
- 净利率
- 14.0%
- ROE
- 22.9%
- FCF 利润率
- 18.7%
估值 · 价值带
高于合理价值
零增长底
$39
中枢 IV
$65
乐观上沿
$120
Advanced Drainage Systems In（WMS）：两种方法为该业务估值 — 一为保守的所有者盈利 DCF，一为计入增长的 Greenwald 估计，$39–$120 / 股。今日价格高于二者（价格 $143 截至 2026-07-20）。
中间是主读数；右侧上沿是同一套保守假设下的乐观档，不是绝对上限。
营收增 4%（历史增长与基本面上限的较小值，受护城河封顶） · 护城河 20 年 · 折现 10.9% · 零增长下行 $39
价格截至 2026-07-20 · yahoo · DGS10 4.6% @ 2026-07-20.
方法与数字
模型警示
- 两种方法的中值差异显著 — 增长假设值得复核（超过 20%）。
保守内在价值带（零增长底到增速封顶的 DCF）加一道有形资产地板 — 非投资建议、非买卖信号、亦非目标价。
所有者盈利 DCF $44.15 – $79.48 · Greenwald $65.17 – $120.12 (中性 $92.49) · 零增长基准 $52.24 · 重置 $11.65
护城河 特许经营（护城河） · 终值占现值 21% · 所有者盈利收益率 3% 对 10Y 4.6%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$39.38 – $52.06 / 股
Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.
年份：2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 简化：Maintenance capex (ok) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back). Operating margin is below its multi-year average (cyclical/declining): normalized margin capped at the latest year — no peak-margin capitalization (audit #2).
Buffett owner-earnings value$43.01 – $52.24 / 股
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9.3–11.3% band (9–11% base + 0.3pp leverage premium). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
年份：2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 简化：Net income is below its multi-year average (cyclical/declining): normalized owner earnings anchored to the latest year — no peak-earnings capitalization (audit #2). Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (ok); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% base band plus a 0.3pp leverage premium (cost of equity rises with leverage — MM Proposition II). Net debt is about 3.6 years of owner earnings, adding 0.3pp of cost-of-equity risk premium.
资产地板：Reproduction value = tangible net assets + acquired-intangible reset proxy, ÷ diluted shares; tangible net assets alone are negative for this asset-light franchise (no R&D history to capitalize).
护城河读数：Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value (tangible net assets + capitalized R&D). EPV well above reproduction value signals a moat; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
假设宽护城河 · 竞争优势期约 20 年（盈利未衰退、ROIC 历史稳定）。
增长价值：若护城河在 20 年 内维持于 ROIIC ≈ 31%，则 $12.93–$67.89 / 股（中性 $40.26）。保守估计，非预测。
窗口 FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · 贴现带 9%–11% · 正常化税率 21% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · 股数 diluted.
基线 9%–11%，净债务约 3.6 年所有者盈利 → 加 0.3 个百分点风险溢价 → 实际 9.3%–11.3%。
所有者盈利 DCF：增长 g₁ 4% · OE FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 9.42%–12.32% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, each +0.32pp for leverage premium, as of 2026-07-20). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp. 两法中值差 34%。
价格在赌什么
现价把公司未来几年的 owner-earnings 年增定在 14.3%；公司过去营收年增 6.6%。
市场要它明显快过自己一贯的水平。
SEC 13F · 持有人
持有该证券的超级投资者
3 位持有 · 合计 $37.8M · 本季 +0 新建 / -0 清仓
- 市值$27.1M权重（上季→本季）0.1% → 0.1% ▼
- 市值$10.0M权重（上季→本季）0.0% → 0.0% ▲
- 市值$585,271权重（上季→本季）0.0% → 0.0% ▼
SEC 13F · 说明
文字说明
文字说明
Advanced Drainage Systems In（WMS）被 Compounder 追踪的 3 位超级投资者持有，合计申报市值 $37.8M。仓位最大的是 Jeremy Grantham，占其组合 0.1%。
按市值，其他主要持有人包括 Ray Dalio（占其组合 0.0%） 和 Jim Cullen（占其组合 0.0%）。
最近一个季度，追踪范围内有 0 位新建 WMS 仓位，2 位加仓，1 位减仓，0 位清仓。
以上持有人数与市值来自最新的 SEC Form 13F 申报，截至 2026-03-31 季度。来源：SEC EDGAR。13F 仅涵盖美股多头持仓，且可能滞后实际组合最多 45 天，因此这是已披露的多头持有情况，并非完整全貌。
SEC 13F · 共持信号
他们还共同持有
持有 Advanced Drainage Systems In（WMS）的这些人还共同重仓 →
WMS 现价不低于保守价值带。 看当前击球区股票
数据来源· SEC EDGAR 13F 截至 2026-03-31 · 2026-05-15 提交
仅供教育与信息参考，不构成投资建议。13F 持仓为机构自行申报，可能滞后最多 45 天。
订阅更新
新一季 13F 异动与估值更新，发到你的邮箱。