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Apple Inc

AAPL高于价值预期 · 苛刻

29 位超级投资者持有。

现价$308.91
持有人数29
合计市值$68.84B

SEC 10-K · 基本面

生意质量

截至 2025-09-27

估值口径:截至 2026-03-28 的滚动十二个月(最新 10-K 叠加未审计 10-Q)。

营收增速
+6.4%
净利率
26.9%
ROE
151.9%
FCF 利润率
23.7%
营收 $274.51B → $416.16B · 近 6 年
什么样的生意算优质

估值 · 价值带

高于合理价值

$121/ 股 · 含增长中枢内在价值
安全边际
合理价值
高于合理价值
$309
更便宜更贵

零增长底

$73

中枢 IV

$121

乐观上沿

$148

Apple Inc(AAPL):保守价值带 $73–$148 / 股(零增长底到增速封顶的乐观上沿),中枢约 $121。今日价格高于这条带(价格 $309 截至 2026-07-31)。

中间是主读数;右侧上沿是同一套保守假设下的乐观档,不是绝对上限。

营收增 5%(历史增长与基本面上限的较小值,受护城河封顶) · 护城河 20 年 · 折现 10.6% · 零增长下行 $73

价格截至 2026-07-31 · yahoo · DGS10 4.7% @ 2026-07-29.

方法与数字

保守内在价值带(零增长底到增速封顶的 DCF)加一道有形资产地板 — 非投资建议、非买卖信号、亦非目标价。

所有者盈利 DCF $77.36 – $148.05 · Greenwald 零增长 $90.25 · 零增长基准 $90.25 · 重置 $10.65

护城河 特许经营(护城河) · 终值占现值 23% · 所有者盈利收益率 3% 对 10Y 4.7%.

Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$73.38 – $90.25 / 股

Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.

年份:TTM 2026-03-28, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

v1 简化:Maintenance capex (degraded) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 165% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back).

Buffett owner-earnings value$73.81 – $90.21 / 股

Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).

年份:TTM 2026-03-28, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

v1 简化:Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 165% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy; no leverage premium applied (net cash or debt within the no-charge range).

重置价值 = 有形净资产 $80.69B + 资本化研发 $76.08B(FY 2026, 2024, 2023, 2022) = $10.65 / 股. Reproduction value = tangible net assets (equity − goodwill − intangibles) + capitalized R&D (5y straight-line), ÷ diluted shares.

护城河读数:Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.

假设宽护城河 · 竞争优势期约 20 年(盈利未衰退、ROIC 历史稳定)。

增长价值无法评估 — No positive growth reinvestment in the matured window, so ROIIC cannot be computed.

窗口 TTM 2026-03-28, FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · 贴现带 9%11% · 正常化税率 17% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · 股数 diluted.

所有者盈利 DCF:增长 g₁ 5% · OE FY TTM 2026-03-28, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 9.17%–12.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, as of 2026-07-29). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.

估值口径:截至 2026-03-28 的滚动十二个月(最新 10-K 叠加未审计 10-Q)。

价格在赌什么

现价把公司未来几年的 owner-earnings 年增定在 16.9%;公司过去营收年增 6.6%

市场要它明显快过自己一贯的水平。

内在价值怎么读

SEC 13F · 持有人

持有该证券的超级投资者

29 位持有 · 合计 $68.84B · 本季 +2 新建 / -0 清仓

本季动向2 家新进5 家加仓11 家减仓
持有人 29 → 1 · 近 8 季
  • 市值$57.84B权重(上季→本季)22.6% 22.0%
  • 市值$7.35B权重(上季→本季)50.3% 36.7%
  • 市值$1.76B权重(上季→本季)4.7% 4.5%
  • 市值$911.9M权重(上季→本季)新建 · 2.6%
  • 市值$311.5M权重(上季→本季)2.7% 2.6%
  • 市值$299.6M权重(上季→本季)25.9% 23.1%
  • 市值$143.0M权重(上季→本季)0.3% 0.6%
  • 市值$44.0M权重(上季→本季)3.6% 3.6%
  • 市值$34.3M权重(上季→本季)7.3% 7.1%
  • 市值$33.4M权重(上季→本季)0.0% 0.0%
展开全部 29 位持有人
  • 市值$28.1M权重(上季→本季)0.8% 0.9%
  • 市值$25.4M权重(上季→本季)16.9% 16.5%
  • 市值$15.9M权重(上季→本季)4.6% 4.2%
  • 市值$11.2M权重(上季→本季)5.9% 5.3%
  • 市值$8.0M权重(上季→本季)0.0% 0.0%
  • 市值$5.9M权重(上季→本季)0.4% 0.4%
  • 市值$3.8M权重(上季→本季)0.1% 0.1%
  • 市值$3.3M权重(上季→本季)0.7% 0.7%
  • 市值$1.2M权重(上季→本季)0.0% 0.0%
  • 市值$1.1M权重(上季→本季)0.1% 0.1%
  • 市值$1.0M权重(上季→本季)0.0% 0.0%
  • 市值$784,718权重(上季→本季)0.1% 0.1%
  • 市值$670,006权重(上季→本季)0.0% 0.0%
  • 市值$609,096权重(上季→本季)0.0% 0.0%
  • 市值$433,727权重(上季→本季)0.2% 0.2%
  • 市值$251,760权重(上季→本季)0.0% 0.0%
  • 市值$243,892权重(上季→本季)0.0% 0.0%
  • 市值$234,248权重(上季→本季)0.0% 0.0%
  • 市值$229,334权重(上季→本季)新建 · 0.1%

SEC 13F · 说明

文字说明

Apple Inc(AAPL)被 Compounder 追踪的 29 位超级投资者持有,合计申报市值 $68.84B。仓位最大的是 Warren Buffett,占其组合 22.0%。

按市值,其他主要持有人包括 Duan Yongping(占其组合 36.7%)Jeremy Grantham(占其组合 4.5%)Andreas Halvorsen(占其组合 2.6%)

最近一个季度,追踪范围内有 2 位新建 AAPL 仓位,5 位加仓,11 位减仓,0 位清仓。

以上持有人数与市值来自最新的 SEC Form 13F 申报,截至 2026-06-30 季度。来源:SEC EDGAR。13F 仅涵盖美股多头持仓,且可能滞后实际组合最多 45 天,因此这是已披露的多头持有情况,并非完整全貌。

如何读懂 13F

SEC 13F · 共持信号

他们还共同持有

持有 Apple Inc(AAPL)的这些人还共同重仓 →

AAPL 现价不低于保守价值带。 看当前击球区股票

也可在

数据来源· SEC EDGAR 13F 截至 2026-06-30 · 2026-07-15 提交

仅供教育与信息参考,不构成投资建议。13F 持仓为机构自行申报,可能滞后最多 45 天。

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