Apple Inc
AAPL高于价值预期 · 苛刻27 位超级投资者持有。
SEC 10-K · 基本面
生意质量
截至 2025-09-27估值口径：截至 2026-06-27 的滚动十二个月（最新 10-K 叠加未审计 10-Q）。
- 营收增速
- +6.4%
- 净利率
- 26.9%
- ROE
- 151.9%
- FCF 利润率
- 23.7%
估值 · 价值带
高于合理价值
零增长底
$76
中枢 IV
$132
乐观上沿
$156
Apple Inc（AAPL）：保守价值带 $76–$156 / 股（零增长底到增速封顶的乐观上沿），中枢约 $132。今日价格高于这条带（价格 $343 截至 2026-10-16）。
中间是主读数；右侧上沿是同一套保守假设下的乐观档，不是绝对上限。
营收增 6%（历史增长与基本面上限的较小值，受护城河封顶） · 护城河 20 年 · 折现 10.8% · 零增长下行 $76
价格截至 2026-10-16 · yahoo · DGS10 5.1% @ 2026-10-15.
方法与数字
保守内在价值带（零增长底到增速封顶的 DCF）加一道有形资产地板 — 非投资建议、非买卖信号、亦非目标价。
所有者盈利 DCF $81.99 – $155.94 · Greenwald 零增长 $93.41 · 零增长基准 $93.41 · 重置 $10.94
护城河 特许经营（护城河） · 终值占现值 23% · 所有者盈利收益率 2% 对 10Y 5.1%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$75.90 – $93.41 / 股
Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.
年份：TTM 2026-06-27, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 简化：Maintenance capex (degraded) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 222% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back).
Buffett owner-earnings value$76.13 – $93.05 / 股
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
年份：TTM 2026-06-27, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 简化：Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 222% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy; no leverage premium applied (net cash or debt within the no-charge range).
重置价值 = 有形净资产 $82.10B + 资本化研发 $78.94B（FY 2026, 2024, 2023, 2022） = $10.94 / 股. Reproduction value = tangible net assets (equity − goodwill − intangibles) + capitalized R&D (5y straight-line), ÷ diluted shares.
护城河读数：Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
假设宽护城河 · 竞争优势期约 20 年（盈利未衰退、ROIC 历史稳定）。
增长价值无法评估 — No positive growth reinvestment in the matured window, so ROIIC cannot be computed.
窗口 TTM 2026-06-27, FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · 贴现带 9%–11% · 正常化税率 17% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · 股数 diluted.
所有者盈利 DCF：增长 g₁ 6% · OE FY TTM 2026-06-27, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 9.60%–12.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, as of 2026-10-15). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.
估值口径：截至 2026-06-27 的滚动十二个月（最新 10-K 叠加未审计 10-Q）。
价格在赌什么
现价把公司未来几年的 owner-earnings 年增定在 18.3%；公司过去营收年增 6.6%。
市场要它明显快过自己一贯的水平。
SEC 13F · 持有人
持有该证券的超级投资者
27 位持有 · 合计 $76.77B · 本季 +0 新建 / -1 清仓
- 市值$65.95B权重（上季→本季）22.0% → 22.0% ▲
- 市值$7.84B权重（上季→本季）36.7% → 41.1% ▲
- 市值$1.98B权重（上季→本季）4.5% → 4.5% ▼
- 市值$355.1M权重（上季→本季）2.6% → 2.7% ▲
- 市值$288.3M权重（上季→本季）23.1% → 21.6% ▼
- 市值$105.4M权重（上季→本季）0.6% → 0.4% ▼
- 市值$50.3M权重（上季→本季）3.6% → 4.1% ▲
- 市值$38.0M权重（上季→本季）0.0% → 0.1% ▲
- 市值$37.8M权重（上季→本季）7.1% → 7.8% ▲
- 市值$32.0M权重（上季→本季）0.9% → 0.9% ▼
展开全部 27 位持有人 ▸收起 ▾
- 市值$28.9M权重（上季→本季）15.1% → 13.2% ▼
- 市值$18.0M权重（上季→本季）4.2% → 5.2% ▲
- 市值$11.6M权重（上季→本季）5.3% → 5.3% ▲
- 市值$9.1M权重（上季→本季）0.0% → 0.0% ▲
- 市值$6.8M权重（上季→本季）0.4% → 0.4% ▲
- 市值$3.8M权重（上季→本季）0.1% → 0.1% ▼
- 市值$1.3M权重（上季→本季）0.1% → 0.2% ▲
- 市值$1.3M权重（上季→本季）0.0% → 0.0% ▲
- 市值$963,518权重（上季→本季）0.2% → 0.3% ▲
- 市值$894,701权重（上季→本季）0.1% → 0.1% ▲
- 市值$836,742权重（上季→本季）0.0% → 0.0% ▲
- 市值$763,910权重（上季→本季）0.0% → 0.0% ▲
- 市值$694,464权重（上季→本季）0.0% → 0.0% ▲
- 市值$287,045权重（上季→本季）0.0% → 0.0% ▼
- 市值$278,075权重（上季→本季）0.0% → 0.0% ▲
- 市值$274,024权重（上季→本季）0.0% → 0.0% ▲
- 市值$261,476权重（上季→本季）0.1% → 0.1% ▲
SEC 13F · 说明
文字说明
文字说明
Apple Inc（AAPL）被 Compounder 追踪的 27 位超级投资者持有，合计申报市值 $76.77B。仓位最大的是 Warren Buffett，占其组合 22.0%。
按市值，其他主要持有人包括 Duan Yongping（占其组合 41.1%），Jeremy Grantham（占其组合 4.5%） 和 Thomas Gayner（占其组合 2.7%）。
截至 2026-06-30 的这一季，追踪范围内有 0 位新建 AAPL 仓位，4 位加仓，12 位减仓，1 位清仓。
以上持有人数与市值来自最新的 SEC Form 13F 申报，截至 2026-06-30 季度。另有 1 位投资人已提前提交截至 2026-09-30 的申报，表中他们的持仓按这份更新的申报列出；本页的动向统计只计 2026-06-30 季度的申报。来源：SEC EDGAR。13F 仅涵盖美股多头持仓，且可能滞后实际组合最多 45 天，因此这是已披露的多头持有情况，并非完整全貌。
SEC 13F · 共持信号
他们还共同持有
持有 Apple Inc（AAPL）的这些人还共同重仓 →
AAPL 现价不低于保守价值带。 看当前击球区股票
数据来源· SEC EDGAR 13F 截至 2026-06-30 · 2026-08-18 提交
仅供教育与信息参考，不构成投资建议。13F 持仓为机构自行申报，可能滞后最多 45 天。
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