Affirm Holdings Inc
AFRMHeld by 2 superinvestors.
SEC 10-K · fundamentals
Business quality
as of 2025-06-30Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-03-31 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
- Revenue growth
- +34.9%
- Net margin
- 4.7%
- ROE
- 1.7%
- FCF margin
- 54.0%
Valuation · value band
Valuation
No usable market price is available, so this page does not place price on the value gauge.
Method & numbers
High leverage — ranges are a degraded approximation (see method).
Buybacks over the years shown roughly only offset stock-based-compensation dilution — read them as maintaining the share count, not a net return of capital.
A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.
· reproduction $9.27
Moat Below asset base.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)
Normalized operating earnings net of maintenance capex are non-positive over the years shown; earnings power cannot be capitalized.
Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.
Years: TTM 2026-03-31, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020
v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex (degraded) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 123% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back).
Buffett owner-earnings value
Normalized owner earnings are non-positive over the years shown; earnings power cannot be capitalized.
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
Years: TTM 2026-03-31, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020
v1 simplifications: Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 123% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy; no leverage premium applied. Financial issuer (bank/insurer): net debt / owner earnings does not describe a deposit-funded balance sheet, so no leverage premium is applied here; leverage is instead handled by the reliability gate.
Reproduction value = tangible net assets $3.23B = $9.27 / sh. Tangible net assets = shareholders' equity − goodwill − intangibles, ÷ diluted shares (no R&D history to capitalize).
Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
Growth value gated to zero — no moat or ROIIC ≤ WACC, so no growth value is credited.
Window TTM 2026-03-31, FY 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 1% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.
High leverage (net debt / shareholders' equity above 1.0): for financial issuers the single 9–11% rate band is a low-leverage approximation that is not priced for leverage (financials are exempt from the leverage premium; see the reliability gate instead). The ranges are shown but should be read with that in mind.
Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-03-31 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
How to read intrinsic valueSEC 13F · holders
Superinvestors Holding This Security
2 holders · $361.6M combined · this quarter +0 opened / -0 exited
- Value$360.9MWeight (prev→now)2.7% → 3.5% ▲
- Value$730,525Weight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.0% ▲
SEC 13F · notes
Written summary
Written summary
Affirm Holdings Inc (AFRM) is held by 2 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $361.6M in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Henry Ellenbogen, where it makes up 3.5% of the portfolio.
Other notable holders by value include Polen Capital (0.0% of its book).
Over the latest quarter, 0 of the tracked filers opened a new position in AFRM, 1 added to existing ones, 1 trimmed, and 0 sold out entirely.
Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.
SEC 13F · co-ownership
Also held by these investors
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Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-14
Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.
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