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Affirm Holdings Inc

AFRMAbove value

Held by 2 superinvestors.

Price$74.01
Holders2
Total value$361.6M

SEC 10-K · fundamentals

Business quality

As of 2026-06-30
Revenue growth
+29.6%
Net margin
133.6%
ROE
35.2%
FCF margin
68.7%
Revenue $429.4M → $1.44B · 6y
What makes a business high quality

Valuation · value band

Above fair value

$2/ sh · growth-anchored intrinsic value
margin of safety
fair value
above fair value
$74
cheaperpricier

Zero-growth floor

$14

Central IV

$2

Optimistic top

$14

Affirm Holdings Inc (AFRM): A conservative value band $14 / sh (zero-growth floor to growth-capped optimistic top); central read about $2. Today’s price sits above that band (price $74 as of 2026-10-16).

The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.

  • High financial leverage: the equity value here is a degraded approximation.

Revenue growth 7% (lower of historical trend and fundamental cap, capped by moat) · moat 0 yr · discount 10.8% · Zero-growth downside $14

Price as of 2026-10-16 · yahoo · DGS10 5.1% @ 2026-10-15.

Method & numbers

High leverage — ranges are a degraded approximation (see method).

Buybacks over the years shown roughly only offset stock-based-compensation dilution — read them as maintaining the share count, not a net return of capital.

Model cautions

  • Owner-earnings yield diverges sharply from the 10-year Treasury (over 300 bps).
  • Growth nearly matches the discount rate — the estimate is sensitive to assumptions.

A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.

Owner-earnings DCF $1.42 – $2.63 · Greenwald zero-growth $14.14 · zero-growth base $14.14 · reproduction $14.14

Moat Below asset base · terminal value 49% of present value · owner-earnings yield 0% vs 10Y 5.1%.

Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)

Normalized operating earnings net of maintenance capex are non-positive over the years shown; earnings power cannot be capitalized.

Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.

Years: 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex (degraded) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 288% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back).

Buffett owner-earnings value$1.29 – $1.58 / sh

Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).

Years: 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

v1 simplifications: Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 288% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy; no leverage premium applied. Financial issuer (bank/insurer): net debt / owner earnings does not describe a deposit-funded balance sheet, so no leverage premium is applied here; leverage is instead handled by the reliability gate.

Reproduction value = tangible net assets $4.93B = $14.14 / sh. Tangible net assets = shareholders' equity − goodwill − intangibles, ÷ diluted shares (no R&D history to capitalize).

Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.

Growth value gated to zero — no moat or ROIIC ≤ WACC, so no growth value is credited.

Window FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 0% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.

Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 7% · OE FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 9.60%–12.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, as of 2026-10-15). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.

High leverage (net debt / shareholders' equity above 1.0): for financial issuers the single 9–11% rate band is a low-leverage approximation that is not priced for leverage (financials are exempt from the leverage premium; see the reliability gate instead). The ranges are shown but should be read with that in mind.

What the price is betting

Today's price pencils in about over 30.0% (outside the usual range) a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 27.1% a year.

The market wants it well ahead of its own track record.

Roughly, the price needs its historical revenue growth to run about 25 more years to hold up.

Even when the value band is low-confidence: use this to see what the price assumes — not as a cheapness confirmation.

How to read intrinsic value

SEC 13F · holders

Superinvestors Holding This Security

2 holders · $361.6M combined · this quarter +0 opened / -0 exited

This quarter1 added1 trimmed
Holders 1 → 2 · last 8 quarters

SEC 13F · notes

Written summary

Affirm Holdings Inc (AFRM) is held by 2 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $361.6M in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Henry Ellenbogen, where it makes up 3.5% of the portfolio.

Other notable holders by value include Polen Capital (0.0% of its book).

In the quarter ended 2026-06-30, 0 of the tracked filers opened a new position in AFRM, 1 added to existing ones, 1 trimmed, and 0 sold out entirely.

Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.

How to read a 13F

SEC 13F · co-ownership

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Also on

Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-14

Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.

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