Applied Materials Inc
AMATAbove valueHeld by 14 superinvestors.
SEC 10-K · fundamentals
Business quality
as of 2025-10-26Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-07-26 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
- Revenue growth
- +4.4%
- Net margin
- 24.7%
- ROE
- 34.3%
- FCF margin
- 20.1%
Valuation · value band
Above fair value
Zero-growth floor
$89
Central IV
$211
Optimistic top
$263
Applied Materials Inc (AMAT): A conservative value band $89–$263 / sh (zero-growth floor to growth-capped optimistic top); central read about $211. Today’s price sits above that band (price $480 as of 2026-08-26).
The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.
- Capex doubled in two years, so maintenance is hard to pin down — read the band conservatively.
Revenue growth 9% (lower of historical trend and fundamental cap, capped by moat) · moat 20 yr · discount 10.6% · Zero-growth downside $89
Price as of 2026-08-26 · yahoo · DGS10 4.7% @ 2026-08-26.
Method & numbers
Model cautions
- Capex doubled within two years: maintenance is floored then capped at D&A (OE may look optimistic); Greenwald growth value is closed — growth credit stays in the owner-earnings DCF only.
- Growth nearly matches the discount rate — the estimate is sensitive to assumptions.
A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.
Owner-earnings DCF $110.58 – $263.08 · Greenwald zero-growth $117.37 · zero-growth base $117.37 · reproduction $36.43
Moat Franchise (moat) · terminal value 26% of present value · owner-earnings yield 2% vs 10Y 4.7%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$88.92 – $108.87 / sh
Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.
Years: TTM 2026-07-26, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex (degraded) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 334% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. Capex doubled within two years (AI-hog rule): flagged; the spike is treated as growth, not maintenance — owner earnings carry extra uncertainty. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back).
Buffett owner-earnings value$96.03 – $117.37 / sh
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
Years: TTM 2026-07-26, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 simplifications: Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 334% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. Capex doubled within two years (AI-hog rule): flagged; the spike is treated as growth, not maintenance — owner earnings carry extra uncertainty. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy; no leverage premium applied (net cash or debt within the no-charge range).
Reproduction value = tangible net assets $21.44B + capitalized R&D $7.71B（FY 2026, 2024, 2023, 2022） = $36.43 / sh. Reproduction value = tangible net assets (equity − goodwill − intangibles) + capitalized R&D (5y straight-line), ÷ diluted shares.
Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
Assumes a wide moat · competitive-advantage period ≈ 20 years (earnings intact, ROIC stable over history).
Growth value gated to zero — capex doubled within two years (AI-hog); growth credit stays in the owner-earnings DCF only.
Window TTM 2026-07-26, FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 13% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.
Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 9% · OE FY TTM 2026-07-26, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 9.16%–12.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, as of 2026-08-26). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.
Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-07-26 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.
What the price is betting
Today's price pencils in about 19.1% a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 9.0% a year.
The market wants it well ahead of its own track record.
Even when the value band is low-confidence: use this to see what the price assumes — not as a cheapness confirmation.
SEC 13F · holders
Superinvestors Holding This Security
14 holders · $2.91B combined · this quarter +2 opened / -0 exited
- Value$1.18BWeight (prev→now)2.5% → 4.9% ▲
- Value$873.2MWeight (prev→now)New · 5.3%
- Value$376.7MWeight (prev→now)New · 3.6%
- Value$210.7MWeight (prev→now)0.9% → 0.9% ▲
- Value$74.1MWeight (prev→now)1.9% → 0.3% ▼
- Value$73.2MWeight (prev→now)14.9% → 23.2% ▲
- Value$36.3MWeight (prev→now)3.5% → 5.5% ▲
- Value$34.7MWeight (prev→now)1.8% → 2.8% ▲
- Value$26.3MWeight (prev→now)0.1% → 0.2% ▲
- Value$11.9MWeight (prev→now)0.1% → 0.1% ▲
Show all 14 holders ▸Collapse ▾
- Value$11.3MWeight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.0% ▲
- Value$1.8MWeight (prev→now)3.5% → 0.0% ▼
- Value$1.4MWeight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.0% ▲
- Value$694,803Weight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.0% ▲
SEC 13F · notes
Written summary
Written summary
Applied Materials Inc (AMAT) is held by 14 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $2.91B in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Chase Coleman, where it makes up 4.9% of the portfolio.
Other notable holders by value include Stephen Mandel (5.3% of its book), John Armitage (3.6% of its book) and Ray Dalio (0.9% of its book).
Over the latest quarter, 2 of the tracked filers opened a new position in AMAT, 0 added to existing ones, 10 trimmed, and 0 sold out entirely.
Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.
SEC 13F · co-ownership
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Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-14
Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.
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