Applied Materials Inc
AMAT高于价值预期 · 苛刻12 位超级投资者持有。
SEC 10-K · 基本面
生意质量
截至 2025-10-26- 营收增速
- +4.4%
- 净利率
- 24.7%
- ROE
- 34.3%
- FCF 利润率
- 20.1%
估值 · 价值带
高于合理价值
零增长底
$78
中枢 IV
$121
乐观上沿
$149
Applied Materials Inc（AMAT）：保守价值带 $78–$149 / 股（零增长底到增速封顶的乐观上沿），中枢约 $121。今日价格高于这条带（价格 $526 截至 2026-07-20）。
中间是主读数；右侧上沿是同一套保守假设下的乐观档，不是绝对上限。
营收增 4%（历史增长与基本面上限的较小值，受护城河封顶） · 护城河 20 年 · 折现 10.5% · 零增长下行 $78
价格截至 2026-07-20 · yahoo · DGS10 4.5% @ 2026-07-17.
方法与数字
模型警示
- 资本开支两年翻倍：维持性 CapEx 下限后按 D&A 封顶（OE 可能偏乐观）；Greenwald 增长价值已关闭 — 成长只留在所有者盈利 DCF。
保守内在价值带（零增长底到增速封顶的 DCF）加一道有形资产地板 — 非投资建议、非买卖信号、亦非目标价。
所有者盈利 DCF $80.41 – $149.08 · Greenwald 零增长 $97.42 · 零增长基准 $97.42 · 重置 $32.31
护城河 特许经营（护城河） · 终值占现值 22% · 所有者盈利收益率 2% 对 10Y 4.5%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$79.87 – $97.42 / 股
Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.
年份：2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 简化：Maintenance capex (degraded) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 369% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. Capex doubled within two years (AI-hog rule): flagged; the spike is treated as growth, not maintenance — owner earnings carry extra uncertainty. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back). Operating margin is below its multi-year average (cyclical/declining): normalized margin capped at the latest year — no peak-margin capitalization (audit #2).
Buffett owner-earnings value$78.45 – $95.89 / 股
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
年份：2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 简化：Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 369% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. Capex doubled within two years (AI-hog rule): flagged; the spike is treated as growth, not maintenance — owner earnings carry extra uncertainty. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy; no leverage premium applied (net cash or debt within the no-charge range).
重置价值 = 有形净资产 $16.48B + 资本化研发 $9.62B（FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021） = $32.31 / 股. Reproduction value = tangible net assets (equity − goodwill − intangibles) + capitalized R&D (5y straight-line), ÷ diluted shares.
护城河读数：Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
假设宽护城河 · 竞争优势期约 20 年（盈利未衰退、ROIC 历史稳定）。
增长价值被闸至零 — 资本开支两年翻倍（AI-hog），成长只留在所有者盈利 DCF，避免双重计入。
窗口 FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · 贴现带 9%–11% · 正常化税率 15% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · 股数 diluted.
所有者盈利 DCF：增长 g₁ 4% · OE FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 9.05%–12.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, as of 2026-07-17). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.
价格在赌什么
现价把公司未来几年的 owner-earnings 年增定在 22.5%；公司过去营收年增 9.0%。
市场要它明显快过自己一贯的水平。
SEC 13F · 持有人
持有该证券的超级投资者
12 位持有 · 合计 $2.09B · 本季 +0 新建 / -1 清仓
- 市值$566.3M权重（上季→本季）0.8% → 2.5% ▲
- 市值$520.2M权重（上季→本季）4.1% → 3.5% ▼
- 市值$409.2M权重（上季→本季）4.9% → 1.9% ▼
- 市值$297.3M权重（上季→本季）3.1% → 3.5% ▲
- 市值$191.4M权重（上季→本季）0.4% → 0.9% ▲
- 市值$40.7M权重（上季→本季）10.9% → 14.9% ▲
- 市值$34.7M权重（上季→本季）1.8% → 2.8% ▲
- 市值$12.4M权重（上季→本季）0.1% → 0.1% ▲
- 市值$7.3M权重（上季→本季）0.0% → 0.0% ▼
- 市值$6.4M权重（上季→本季）0.1% → 0.1% ▲
展开全部 12 位持有人 ▸收起 ▾
- 市值$751,938权重（上季→本季）0.0% → 0.0% ▲
- 市值$328,460权重（上季→本季）0.0% → 0.0% ▲
SEC 13F · 说明
文字说明
文字说明
Applied Materials Inc（AMAT）被 Compounder 追踪的 12 位超级投资者持有，合计申报市值 $2.09B。仓位最大的是 Chase Coleman，占其组合 2.5%。
按市值，其他主要持有人包括 William von Mueffling（占其组合 3.5%），Christopher Davis（占其组合 1.9%） 和 Lee Ainslie（占其组合 3.5%）。
最近一个季度，追踪范围内有 0 位新建 AMAT 仓位，3 位加仓，6 位减仓，1 位清仓。
以上持有人数与市值来自最新的 SEC Form 13F 申报，截至 2026-06-30 季度。来源：SEC EDGAR。13F 仅涵盖美股多头持仓，且可能滞后实际组合最多 45 天，因此这是已披露的多头持有情况，并非完整全貌。
SEC 13F · 共持信号
他们还共同持有
持有 Applied Materials Inc（AMAT）的这些人还共同重仓 →
AMAT 现价不低于保守价值带。 看当前击球区股票
数据来源· SEC EDGAR 13F 截至 2026-06-30 · 2026-07-15 提交
仅供教育与信息参考，不构成投资建议。13F 持仓为机构自行申报，可能滞后最多 45 天。
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