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Pepsico Inc

PEPAbove valueExpectations · demanding

Held by 13 superinvestors.

Price$142.19
Holders13
Total value$512.2M

SEC 10-K · fundamentals

Business quality

as of 2025-12-27

Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-13 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.

Revenue growth
+2.3%
Net margin
8.8%
ROE
40.4%
FCF margin
8.2%
Revenue $70.37B → $93.92B · 6y
What makes a business high quality

Valuation · value band

Above fair value

$87/ sh · growth-anchored intrinsic value
margin of safety
fair value
above fair value
$142
cheaperpricier

Zero-growth floor

$44

Central IV

$87

Optimistic top

$137

Pepsico Inc (PEP): Two methods value the business — a conservative owner-earnings DCF and a growth-credited Greenwald estimate, $44–$137 / sh. Today’s price sits above both (price $142 as of 2026-08-26).

The middle figure is the main read. The right end is the optimistic case under the same conservative caps — not an absolute ceiling.

Revenue growth 4% (lower of historical trend and fundamental cap, capped by moat) · moat 20 yr · discount 11.4% · Zero-growth downside $44

Price as of 2026-08-26 · yahoo · DGS10 4.7% @ 2026-08-26.

Method & numbers

Model cautions

  • The two methods’ midpoints differ materially — growth assumptions warrant review (over 20%).

A conservative intrinsic-value band (zero-growth floor to growth-capped DCF) plus a tangible asset floor — not investment advice, not a buy/sell signal, and not a price target.

Owner-earnings DCF $61.11 – $103.45 · Greenwald $85.69 – $136.55 (neutral $111.44) · zero-growth base $72.32 · reproduction $2.64

Moat Franchise (moat) · terminal value 19% of present value · owner-earnings yield 5% vs 10Y 4.7%.

Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$43.58 – $60.50 / sh

Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.

Years: TTM 2026-06-13, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

v1 simplifications: Maintenance capex (ok) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back).

Buffett owner-earnings value$60.06 – $72.32 / sh

Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9.8–11.8% band (9–11% base + 0.8pp leverage premium). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).

Years: TTM 2026-06-13, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021

v1 simplifications: Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (ok); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% base band plus a 0.8pp leverage premium (cost of equity rises with leverage — MM Proposition II). Net debt is about 4.6 years of owner earnings, adding 0.8pp of cost-of-equity risk premium.

Reproduction value = tangible net assets $1.82B + capitalized R&D $1.80B（FY 2026, 2024, 2023, 2022） = $2.64 / sh. Reproduction value = tangible net assets (equity − goodwill − intangibles) + capitalized R&D (5y straight-line), ÷ diluted shares.

Moat reading: Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.

Assumes a wide moat · competitive-advantage period ≈ 20 years (earnings intact, ROIC stable over history).

Growth value: if the moat holds for 20 yr at ROIIC ≈ 37%, $13.37–$64.23 / sh (neutral $39.12). Conservative, not a forecast.

Window TTM 2026-06-13, FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · discount band 9%–11% · normalized tax 19% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · diluted shares.

Baseline 9%–11%, net debt ≈ 4.6 years of owner earnings → +0.8pp cost-of-equity premium → effective 9.8%–11.8%.

Owner-earnings DCF: growth g₁ 4% · OE FY TTM 2026-06-13, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 9.96%–12.80% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, each +0.80pp for leverage premium, as of 2026-08-26). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp. Two-method midpoint gap 25%.

Valuation basis: trailing twelve months to 2026-06-13 — latest 10-K plus unaudited 10-Q filings.

What the price is betting

Today's price pencils in about 10.5% a year in owner-earnings for the next few years. Revenue actually grew 5.7% a year.

The market wants it well ahead of its own track record.

How to read intrinsic value

SEC 13F · holders

Superinvestors Holding This Security

13 holders · $512.2M combined · this quarter +0 opened / -0 exited

This quarter5 added3 trimmed
Holders 12 → 12 · last 8q
Show all 13 holders ▸
  • Dodge & Cox
    Value$416,355Weight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.0% ▼
  • Thomas Kahn
    Value$279,522Weight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.0%
  • Bill Nygren
    Value$272,831Weight (prev→now)0.0% → 0.0% ▲

SEC 13F · notes

Written summary

Pepsico Inc (PEP) is held by 13 of the superinvestors tracked on Compounder, with a combined $512.2M in reported 13F value. The largest position belongs to Donald Yacktman, where it makes up 3.5% of the portfolio.

Other notable holders by value include Nick Train (5.3% of its book), David Katz (3.0% of its book) and Ray Dalio (0.1% of its book).

Over the latest quarter, 0 of the tracked filers opened a new position in PEP, 5 added to existing ones, 3 trimmed, and 0 sold out entirely.

Holder counts and values reflect the most recent SEC Form 13F filings, through the quarter ended 2026-06-30. Source: SEC EDGAR. A 13F shows only long US-listed positions and can lag the real portfolio by up to 45 days, so this is disclosed long ownership, not a complete picture.

How to read a 13F

SEC 13F · co-ownership

Also held by these investors

Investors holding Pepsico Inc (PEP) also commonly hold →

PEP's price is not below its conservative value band. See current strike-zone stocks

Also on

Sources· SEC EDGAR 13F as of 2026-06-30 · filed 2026-08-14

Educational data only — not investment advice. 13F positions are self-reported and can lag up to 45 days.

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