Cummins Inc
CMI高于价值预期 · 苛刻3 位超级投资者持有。
SEC 10-K · 基本面
生意质量
截至 2025-12-31- 营收增速
- -1.3%
- 净利率
- 8.8%
- ROE
- 23.9%
- FCF 利润率
- 7.1%
估值 · 价值带
高于合理价值
零增长底
$145
中枢 IV
$285
乐观上沿
$352
Cummins Inc（CMI）：保守价值带 $145–$352 / 股（零增长底到增速封顶的乐观上沿），中枢约 $285。今日价格高于这条带（价格 $661 截至 2026-07-22）。
中间是主读数；右侧上沿是同一套保守假设下的乐观档，不是绝对上限。
营收增 7%（历史增长与基本面上限的较小值，受护城河封顶） · 护城河 20 年 · 折现 10.6% · 零增长下行 $145
价格截至 2026-07-22 · yahoo · DGS10 4.6% @ 2026-07-21.
方法与数字
保守内在价值带（零增长底到增速封顶的 DCF）加一道有形资产地板 — 非投资建议、非买卖信号、亦非目标价。
所有者盈利 DCF $170.56 – $352.50 · Greenwald 零增长 $192.80 · 零增长基准 $192.80 · 重置 $87.63
护城河 特许经营（护城河） · 终值占现值 24% · 所有者盈利收益率 3% 对 10Y 4.6%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$144.57 – $183.18 / 股
Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.
年份：2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 简化：Maintenance capex (degraded) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 56% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back).
Buffett owner-earnings value$157.75 – $192.80 / 股
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
年份：2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 简化：Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 56% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy; no leverage premium applied (net cash or debt within the no-charge range).
重置价值 = 有形净资产 $7.96B + 资本化研发 $4.20B（FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021） = $87.63 / 股. Reproduction value = tangible net assets (equity − goodwill − intangibles) + capitalized R&D (5y straight-line), ÷ diluted shares.
护城河读数：Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
假设宽护城河 · 竞争优势期约 20 年（盈利未衰退、ROIC 历史稳定）。
增长价值无法评估 — No positive growth reinvestment in the matured window, so ROIIC cannot be computed.
窗口 FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · 贴现带 9%–11% · 正常化税率 21% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · 股数 diluted.
所有者盈利 DCF：增长 g₁ 7% · OE FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 9.13%–12.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, as of 2026-07-21). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.
价格在赌什么
现价把公司未来几年的 owner-earnings 年增定在 16.9%；公司过去营收年增 11.8%。
市场要它明显快过自己一贯的水平。
粗略地说，现价要它按历史营收增速再增长约 23 年，才刚好撑得起。
SEC 13F · 持有人
持有该证券的超级投资者
3 位持有 · 合计 $49.4M · 本季 +0 新建 / -1 清仓
- 市值$21.3M权重（上季→本季）2.3% → 2.5% ▲
- 市值$21.2M权重（上季→本季）0.1% → 0.1% ▲
- 市值$6.9M权重（上季→本季）0.1% → 0.0% ▼
SEC 13F · 说明
文字说明
文字说明
Cummins Inc（CMI）被 Compounder 追踪的 3 位超级投资者持有，合计申报市值 $49.4M。仓位最大的是 Chris Bloomstran，占其组合 2.5%。
按市值，其他主要持有人包括 Ray Dalio（占其组合 0.1%） 和 Jeremy Grantham（占其组合 0.0%）。
最近一个季度，追踪范围内有 0 位新建 CMI 仓位，1 位加仓，2 位减仓，1 位清仓。
以上持有人数与市值来自最新的 SEC Form 13F 申报，截至 2026-03-31 季度。来源：SEC EDGAR。13F 仅涵盖美股多头持仓，且可能滞后实际组合最多 45 天，因此这是已披露的多头持有情况，并非完整全貌。
SEC 13F · 共持信号
他们还共同持有
持有 Cummins Inc（CMI）的这些人还共同重仓 →
CMI 现价不低于保守价值带。 看当前击球区股票
数据来源· SEC EDGAR 13F 截至 2026-03-31 · 2026-05-15 提交
仅供教育与信息参考，不构成投资建议。13F 持仓为机构自行申报，可能滞后最多 45 天。
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