Icon Plc
ICLR高于价值预期 · 温和6 位超级投资者持有。
SEC 10-K · 基本面
生意质量
截至 2025-12-31- 营收增速
- -0.4%
- 净利率
- 2.8%
- ROE
- 2.5%
- FCF 利润率
- 10.4%
估值 · 价值带
高于合理价值
零增长底
$41
中枢 IV
$59
乐观上沿
$69
Icon Plc（ICLR）：保守价值带 $41–$69 / 股（零增长底到增速封顶的乐观上沿），中枢约 $59。今日价格高于这条带（价格 $169 截至 2026-08-26）。
中间是主读数；右侧上沿是同一套保守假设下的乐观档，不是绝对上限。
营收增 0%（历史增长与基本面上限的较小值，受护城河封顶） · 护城河 10 年 · 折现 11.2% · 零增长下行 $41
价格截至 2026-08-26 · yahoo · DGS10 4.6% @ 2026-08-25.
方法与数字
保守内在价值带（零增长底到增速封顶的 DCF）加一道有形资产地板 — 非投资建议、非买卖信号、亦非目标价。
所有者盈利 DCF $52.35 – $67.67 · Greenwald 零增长 $68.65 · 零增长基准 $68.65 · 重置 $40.57
护城河 特许经营（凭盈利增长） · 终值占现值 35% · 所有者盈利收益率 4% 对 10Y 4.6%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$41.43 – $56.90 / 股
Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.
年份：2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 简化：Maintenance capex (degraded) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 196% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back). Operating margin is below its multi-year average (cyclical/declining): normalized margin capped at the latest year — no peak-margin capitalization (audit #2).
Buffett owner-earnings value$56.85 – $68.65 / 股
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9.6–11.6% band (9–11% base + 0.6pp leverage premium). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
年份：2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 简化：Net income is below its multi-year average (cyclical/declining): normalized owner earnings anchored to the latest year — no peak-earnings capitalization (audit #2). Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 196% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% base band plus a 0.6pp leverage premium (cost of equity rises with leverage — MM Proposition II). Net debt is about 4.3 years of owner earnings, adding 0.6pp of cost-of-equity risk premium.
资产地板：Reproduction value = tangible net assets + acquired-intangible reset proxy, ÷ diluted shares; tangible net assets alone are negative for this asset-light franchise (no R&D history to capitalize).
护城河读数：Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value (tangible net assets + capitalized R&D). EPV well above reproduction value signals a moat; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
假设一般护城河 · 竞争优势期约 10 年。
增长价值被闸至零 — 护城河来自盈利增长旁路，成长只留在所有者盈利 DCF。
窗口 FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · 贴现带 9%–11% · 正常化税率 10% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · 股数 diluted.
基线 9%–11%，净债务约 4.3 年所有者盈利 → 加 0.6 个百分点风险溢价 → 实际 9.6%–11.6%。
所有者盈利 DCF：增长 g₁ 0% · OE FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 9.77%–12.63% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, each +0.63pp for leverage premium, as of 2026-08-25). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.
价格在赌什么
现价把公司未来几年的 owner-earnings 年增定在 20.6%；公司过去营收年增 21.1%。
低于它自己做到过的。
粗略地说，现价要它按历史营收增速再增长约 7 年，才刚好撑得起。
SEC 13F · 持有人
持有该证券的超级投资者
6 位持有 · 合计 $2.34B · 本季 +0 新建 / -2 清仓
- 市值$776.2M权重（上季→本季）0.6% → 1.0% ▲
- 市值$547.8M权重（上季→本季）8.2% → 11.9% ▲
- 市值$538.6M权重（上季→本季）3.6% → 6.2% ▲
- 市值$355.8M权重（上季→本季）3.0% → 5.5% ▲
- 市值$105.4M权重（上季→本季）1.5% → 1.3% ▼
- 市值$11.5M权重（上季→本季）1.9% → 3.3% ▲
SEC 13F · 说明
文字说明
文字说明
Icon Plc（ICLR）被 Compounder 追踪的 6 位超级投资者持有，合计申报市值 $2.34B。仓位最大的是 Bill Nygren，占其组合 1.0%。
按市值，其他主要持有人包括 Glenn Greenberg（占其组合 11.9%），Edgar Wachenheim（占其组合 6.2%） 和 Ruane, Cunniff (Sequoia)（占其组合 5.5%）。
最近一个季度，追踪范围内有 0 位新建 ICLR 仓位，5 位加仓，1 位减仓，2 位清仓。
以上持有人数与市值来自最新的 SEC Form 13F 申报，截至 2026-06-30 季度。来源：SEC EDGAR。13F 仅涵盖美股多头持仓，且可能滞后实际组合最多 45 天，因此这是已披露的多头持有情况，并非完整全貌。
SEC 13F · 共持信号
他们还共同持有
持有 Icon Plc（ICLR）的这些人还共同重仓 →
ICLR 现价不低于保守价值带。 看当前击球区股票
数据来源· SEC EDGAR 13F 截至 2026-06-30 · 2026-08-18 提交
仅供教育与信息参考，不构成投资建议。13F 持仓为机构自行申报，可能滞后最多 45 天。
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