Jones Lang Lasalle Inc
JLL高于价值预期 · 苛刻7 位超级投资者持有。
SEC 10-K · 基本面
生意质量
截至 2025-12-31估值口径:截至 2026-06-30 的滚动十二个月(最新 10-K 叠加未审计 10-Q)。
- 营收增速
- +11.4%
- 净利率
- 3.0%
- ROE
- 10.6%
- FCF 利润率
- —
估值 · 价值带
高于合理价值
零增长底
$131
中枢 IV
$145
乐观上沿
$210
Jones Lang Lasalle Inc(JLL):保守价值带 $131–$210 / 股(零增长底到增速封顶的乐观上沿),中枢约 $145。今日价格高于这条带(价格 $386 截至 2026-08-26)。
中间是主读数;右侧上沿是同一套保守假设下的乐观档,不是绝对上限。
营收增 1%(历史增长与基本面上限的较小值,受护城河封顶) · 护城河 20 年 · 折现 10.6% · 零增长下行 $131
价格截至 2026-08-26 · yahoo · DGS10 4.7% @ 2026-08-26.
方法与数字
保守内在价值带(零增长底到增速封顶的 DCF)加一道有形资产地板 — 非投资建议、非买卖信号、亦非目标价。
所有者盈利 DCF $122.54 – $169.42 · Greenwald 零增长 $210.43 · 零增长基准 $210.43 · 重置 $44.74
护城河 特许经营(护城河) · 终值占现值 15% · 所有者盈利收益率 4% 对 10Y 4.7%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$170.45 – $210.43 / 股
Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.
年份:TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 简化:Maintenance capex unavailable → degraded to the v1 simplification (maintenance capex = D&A, so the depreciation add-back nets to zero). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back).
Buffett owner-earnings value$131.20 – $160.36 / 股
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
年份:TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 简化:Maintenance capex or D&A unavailable → degraded to normalized net income (= average net income over the years shown). One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy; no leverage premium applied (net cash or debt within the no-charge range).
重置价值 = 有形净资产 $2.10B = $44.74 / 股. Tangible net assets = shareholders' equity − goodwill − intangibles, ÷ diluted shares (no R&D history to capitalize).
护城河读数:Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
假设宽护城河 · 竞争优势期约 20 年(盈利未衰退、ROIC 历史稳定)。
增长价值无法评估 — No positive growth reinvestment in the matured window, so ROIIC cannot be computed.
窗口 TTM 2026-06-30, FY 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · 贴现带 9%–11% · 正常化税率 18% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · 股数 diluted.
所有者盈利 DCF:增长 g₁ 1% · OE FY TTM 2026-06-30, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 9.16%–12.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, as of 2026-08-26). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp.
估值口径:截至 2026-06-30 的滚动十二个月(最新 10-K 叠加未审计 10-Q)。
价格在赌什么
现价把公司未来几年的 owner-earnings 年增定在 13.6%;公司过去营收年增 8.4%。
市场要它明显快过自己一贯的水平。
粗略地说,现价要它按历史营收增速再增长约 28 年,才刚好撑得起。
SEC 13F · 持有人
持有该证券的超级投资者
7 位持有 · 合计 $450.0M · 本季 +1 新建 / -0 清仓
- 市值$328.6M权重(上季→本季)3.5% → 3.3% ▼
- 市值$76.9M权重(上季→本季)0.7% → 0.8% ▲
- 市值$29.8M权重(上季→本季)0.9% → 0.9% ▲
- 市值$6.4M权重(上季→本季)1.2% → 1.4% ▲
- 市值$3.8M权重(上季→本季)0.0% → 0.0% ▼
- 市值$3.3M权重(上季→本季)新建 · 0.0%
- 市值$1.1M权重(上季→本季)0.0% → 0.0% ▼
SEC 13F · 说明
文字说明
文字说明
Jones Lang Lasalle Inc(JLL)被 Compounder 追踪的 7 位超级投资者持有,合计申报市值 $450.0M。仓位最大的是 John Rogers,占其组合 3.3%。
按市值,其他主要持有人包括 Sarah Ketterer(占其组合 0.8%),C.T. Fitzpatrick(占其组合 0.9%) 和 Robert Olstein(占其组合 1.4%)。
最近一个季度,追踪范围内有 1 位新建 JLL 仓位,2 位加仓,3 位减仓,0 位清仓。
以上持有人数与市值来自最新的 SEC Form 13F 申报,截至 2026-06-30 季度。来源:SEC EDGAR。13F 仅涵盖美股多头持仓,且可能滞后实际组合最多 45 天,因此这是已披露的多头持有情况,并非完整全貌。
SEC 13F · 共持信号
他们还共同持有
持有 Jones Lang Lasalle Inc(JLL)的这些人还共同重仓 →
JLL 现价不低于保守价值带。 看当前击球区股票
数据来源· SEC EDGAR 13F 截至 2026-06-30 · 2026-08-14 提交
仅供教育与信息参考,不构成投资建议。13F 持仓为机构自行申报,可能滞后最多 45 天。
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