Qualcomm Inc
QCOM高于价值7 位超级投资者持有。
SEC 10-K · 基本面
生意质量
截至 2025-09-28- 营收增速
- +13.7%
- 净利率
- 12.5%
- ROE
- 26.1%
- FCF 利润率
- 28.9%
估值 · 价值带
高于合理价值
零增长底
$55
中枢 IV
$57
乐观上沿
$149
Qualcomm Inc（QCOM）：两种方法为该业务估值 — 一为保守的所有者盈利 DCF，一为计入增长的 Greenwald 估计，$55–$149 / 股。今日价格高于二者（价格 $176 截至 2026-07-22）。
中间是主读数；右侧上沿是同一套保守假设下的乐观档，不是绝对上限。
- 最新盈利低于多年均值，价值带按更低的运行率计。
营收增 0%（历史下滑，封顶为零） · 护城河 10 年 · 折现 10.6% · 零增长下行 $55
价格截至 2026-07-22 · yahoo · DGS10 4.6% @ 2026-07-21.
方法与数字
模型警示
- 两种方法的中值差异显著 — 增长假设值得复核（超过 20%）。
保守内在价值带（零增长底到增速封顶的 DCF）加一道有形资产地板 — 非投资建议、非买卖信号、亦非目标价。
所有者盈利 DCF $50.37 – $66.20 · Greenwald $116.96 – $149.01 (中性 $131.80) · 零增长基准 $105.18 · 重置 $31.55
护城河 特许经营（护城河） · 终值占现值 37% · 所有者盈利收益率 3% 对 10Y 4.6%.
Graham earnings-power value (normalized NOPAT)$84.53 – $105.18 / 股
Normalized NOPAT = average operating margin over the years shown × latest-year revenue × (1 − normalized tax); then + D&A − maintenance capex (write A). Unlevered (pre-interest, attributable to all capital). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a WACC proxy). Enterprise → equity bridge applied: + cash − total debt.
年份：2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 简化：Maintenance capex (degraded) deducted in full cash (write A): EPV = (NOPAT + D&A − maintenance capex) / WACC; no tax shield on the capex term. Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 204% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back). Operating margin is below its multi-year average (cyclical/declining): normalized margin capped at the latest year — no peak-margin capitalization (audit #2).
Buffett owner-earnings value$54.94 – $67.15 / 股
Owner earnings = average net income + average D&A − maintenance capex (zero-growth floor; no ΔNWC). Levered (starts from net income, already after interest — an equity-holder stream). Capitalized at the 9–11% rate band (read as a cost-of-equity proxy). No enterprise→equity bridge: the capitalized result is already equity value (subtracting debt would double-count interest).
年份：2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021
v1 简化：Net income is below its multi-year average (cyclical/declining): normalized owner earnings anchored to the latest year — no peak-earnings capitalization (audit #2). Owner earnings = net income + D&A − maintenance capex (degraded); the working-capital change is excluded (maintenance ΔNWC ≈ 0; growth ΔNWC is carried in growth value, not double-counted). Maintenance-capex methods diverge by 204% (> 50%); estimate is degraded. One-time items are not separately normalized (multi-year averaging smooths them partially). Share-based compensation is left as a real expense (not added back); see the SBC/OE disclosure. Capitalized at the 9–11% band as a cost-of-equity proxy; no leverage premium applied (net cash or debt within the no-charge range).
重置价值 = 有形净资产 $8.70B + 资本化研发 $26.16B（FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021） = $31.55 / 股. Reproduction value = tangible net assets (equity − goodwill − intangibles) + capitalized R&D (5y straight-line), ÷ diluted shares.
护城河读数：Franchise test compares earnings power (EPV) against reproduction value on both AV_conservative (tangible + capitalized R&D) and AV_reproduction (conservative + acquired-reset proxy). Both must clear the franchise multiple for a moat signal; near it, a commodity; below it, value destruction. A directional reading, not a verdict.
假设一般护城河 · 竞争优势期约 10 年。
增长价值：若护城河在 10 年 内维持于 ROIIC ≈ 31%，则 $11.78–$43.83 / 股（中性 $26.62）。保守估计，非预测。
窗口 FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · 贴现带 9%–11% · 正常化税率 17% (Average effective tax rate over 5 year(s), capped at the statutory 21%.) · 股数 diluted.
所有者盈利 DCF：增长 g₁ 0%（历史下滑 → 封顶为 0） · OE FY 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 · Discount band: 9.13%–12.00% (DGS10 +4.5% to a 12% strict end, as of 2026-07-21). No enterprise→equity bridge: owner earnings already flow to shareholders (post-interest), so no net cash is added and no debt subtracted — matching the engine owner-earnings lamp. 两法中值差 79%。
价格在赌什么
现价把公司未来几年的 owner-earnings 年增定在 21.8%；公司过去营收年增 10.2%。
市场要它明显快过自己一贯的水平。
粗略地说，现价要它按历史营收增速再增长约 21 年，才刚好撑得起。
价值带信心不足时仍可对照：这里只说明市场在赌多快，不把它当成「确认便宜」。
SEC 13F · 持有人
持有该证券的超级投资者
7 位持有 · 合计 $373.5M · 本季 +0 新建 / -0 清仓
- 市值$115.5M权重（上季→本季）1.6% → 1.2% ▼
- 市值$64.2M权重（上季→本季）2.9% → 1.1% ▼
- 市值$57.1M权重（上季→本季）0.2% → 0.1% ▼
- 市值$54.7M权重（上季→本季）3.2% → 1.8% ▼
- 市值$45.1M权重（上季→本季）3.4% → 3.7% ▲
- 市值$28.8M权重（上季→本季）0.1% → 0.1% ▼
- 市值$8.0M权重（上季→本季）2.3% → 1.8% ▼
SEC 13F · 说明
文字说明
文字说明
Qualcomm Inc（QCOM）被 Compounder 追踪的 7 位超级投资者持有，合计申报市值 $373.5M。仓位最大的是 Jim Cullen，占其组合 1.2%。
按市值，其他主要持有人包括 David Tepper（占其组合 1.1%），Jeremy Grantham（占其组合 0.1%） 和 Harry Burn（占其组合 1.8%）。
最近一个季度，追踪范围内有 0 位新建 QCOM 仓位，4 位加仓，2 位减仓，0 位清仓。
以上持有人数与市值来自最新的 SEC Form 13F 申报，截至 2026-06-30 季度。来源：SEC EDGAR。13F 仅涵盖美股多头持仓，且可能滞后实际组合最多 45 天，因此这是已披露的多头持有情况，并非完整全貌。
SEC 13F · 共持信号
他们还共同持有
持有 Qualcomm Inc（QCOM）的这些人还共同重仓 →
看哪些股票相对价值带便宜。 浏览全部可估值股票
数据来源· SEC EDGAR 13F 截至 2026-06-30 · 2026-07-15 提交
仅供教育与信息参考，不构成投资建议。13F 持仓为机构自行申报，可能滞后最多 45 天。
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